U.S. GDP forecast flashes recession warning

A U.S. economic forecast warns of recession as stocks tumble and tariffs are poised to drive prices up, fueling fears of a major downturn. Image (c) ConsumerAffairs.

Fears of a stock-market bubble are also rampant

A closely-watched forecast of America's economic growth is warning of a recession.

Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is expected to be -2.4% for the first quarter of 2025 after forecasts, which are published every few days, fell into the negative starting on Feb. 28, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.

GDP is a key metric on the pace of the economy's health and two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth would signal a recession.

The worrying numbers follow economic uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, which are expected to raise prices on numerous goods and services, including cars and home construction.

Price hikes from tariffs could reduce spending, lower production and cause job cuts.

The stock market has also reacted negatively in recent days.

On Thursday, the S&P 500 fell another 1.8% and brought its multiday decline to 7%.

And the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 index fell into a correction, bringing it down more than 10% from recent highs.

Before Trump's tariffs, there were already fears of a U.S. stock market bubble.

Some 89% of investors said they think stocks are overvalued, according to a February survey by Bank of America.

Bank of America likened the current market scenario, which involves a high concentration in few stocks, to the dot-com crash of the late 1990s.

"If history is any indicator, the current market scenario could lead to a significant downturn, potentially dragging the S&P 500 down by as much as 40%," World Economic Magazine reports.

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