Consumer Goods Prices and Inflation

For a couple of months now we consumers have watched with wide smiles on our faces as the price of gasoline has fallen.

It fell below $3.30 a gallon, then $3. By mid-December it was below $2.50 a gallon – and even well below $2 in the cheapest states. It was a wonderful thing. For consumers.

The financial community, however, is terrified.

Why? Because the collapse of oil prices poses a systemic risk, albeit a smaller one, just as the collapse in home prices in 2009 did.

Housing similarities

When home prices collapsed their value as assets evaporated. On an individual basis, many homeowners saw their equity disappear. They might have gone from having $100,000 in home equity to being “under water,” owing more than their homes were worth.

Some people who had owned their homes for a decade or longer or owed very little on their original mortgage decided to take advantage of surging home valuations, refinancing and taking out tens of thousands of dollars in equity. Many lost their homes when home values sank.

The systemic risk to the economy, however, came from bundling these mortgages into securities and selling them to investors – investors who largely borrowed the money from banks to buy them. When home values fell and many went into foreclosure, these assets became “toxic.” Other investors wouldn't touch them because it was impossible to tell which bundles contained mortgages in default.

Shale revolution

The collapse in oil prices has been similar, but so far, on a smaller scale. And while both consumers and financial institutions were affected by the housing collapse, consumers have actually benefited from oil's collapse.

How did all this happen? In the past 5 years American oil production has surged, largely because of the shale revolution – and cheap money.

With historically low interest rates tiny oil companies could borrow huge amounts of capital to expand their drilling operations. Banks were only too willing to lend the money since oil was $100 a barrel or more and no one could imagine it going down – just like no one could imagine home prices falling in 2008.

Rob Raymond of RCH Energy made this comparison last month in an appearance on CNBC.

Homes and oil wells

“The issue with this has become, what were houses in Florida and Arizona in 2000 to 2006 became oil wells in North Dakota and Texas in 2009 to 2014, and most of that was funded in the high-yield market and by private equity," he told the business news channel. “And now that a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil has fallen from $100 to $60 in five months, those energy producers are in trouble.”

And just maybe, so are the banks that loaned them money and the investors who purchased their bonds.

But where the housing crisis crushed millions of consumers who bought or refinanced their homes at the wrong time, consumers are mostly winners with oil's collapse – at least, so far. And they are starting to figure out they have been paying inflated prices for fuel for years.

Because more and more analysts are beginning to refer to oil as “a bubble” that has finally popped. When a commodity is in a bubble, it's price is not determined by the costs of producing it but what people are willing to pay for it.

Stocks, houses, oil

We've seen this movie before. There was a tech-fueled stock market bubble in the late 1990s. There was a housing bubble in the early to mid 2000s. Since 2005, there has been an oil bubble.

But the speculators who drove up the price of oil are now not willing to pay very much, and in some cases have profited by “shorting” the oil market, betting prices will go even lower, basing their decision on the belief the world is producing more oil than it can consume.

As long as it doesn't bring down the economy, this is good news for consumers.

The cost of living moved moderately higher in June, with gasoline, food and shelter prices all contributing to the increase.

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose a seasonally adjusted 0.3% last month and over the last 12 months is up a miniscule 0.1%.

Food and energy

Food prices, which were unchanged in April and May, rose 0.3% last month. The food at home category -- things you buy at a grocery store -- jumped 0.4% after declining in each of the 3 previous months. Over three-fourths of that increase came in the price of eggs, which rose 18.3% -- the largest increase since August 1973. Also posting gains were for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs (+1.4%), and cereal and bakery products (+0.5%). In contrast, prices for dairy and related products fell for the sixth consecutive month (-0.6%), and the fruits and as did the cost of vegetables (-0.4%. Food at home costs are up 1.0% over the last 12 months.

Energy prices were up 1.7% following a surge of 4.3% in May, due largely to an advance of 3.4% in gasoline costs. Electricity prices rose 0.2%, and natural gas prices advanced 0.3% -- the first increase since December. Fuel oil was the only major energy component index to decline, falling 1.9%.

Core inflation

The core rate of inflation -- all items excluding the volatile food and energy categories -- rose 0.2% in June. The cost of shelter, which rose 0.3%, accounted for over two-thirds of the increase. Other increases include prices for recreation, airline fares, personal care, tobacco, and new vehicles. Those advances more than offset declines in the prices of medical care, household furnishings and operations, used cars and trucks, and apparel. The core rate of inflation is up 1.8% over the past 12 months.

The complete CPI report is available on the Labor Department website.

Housing starts

A surge in new-home construction in June recovered nearly all the losses suffered a month earlier.

The Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development report privately-owned housing shot up 9.8% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,174,000 -- 26.6% above the same month a year ago.

Construction of single-family housing was up 0,9% to an annual rate of 685,000, while the rate for units in buildings with 5 units or more was 476,000 -- up 116,000 from May.

Building permits

The outlook for construction in the months ahead improved as well.

Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,343,000 in June -- 7.4% from May.

Permits for single-family construction rose 0.9% to a rate of 687,000; authorizations of units in buildings with 5 units or more were at a rate of 621,000 -- a gain of 86,000 from May.

Stifel Fixed Income Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza says the housing market continues to take steps in the right direction. But, she adds, "growth remains far from robust; as we have seen in the recent decline in retail sales, consumers continue to struggle to afford purchases -- particularly large ticket items -- amid stagnant income growth. Still, with the threat of rising rates on the near horizon, some homeowners are jumping in to lock in low rates."

The full report on housing construction is available on the Commerce Department website.

Despite a low official unemployment rate and steady economic improvement, the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (Fed) has decided to leave U.S. interest rates at 0%.

The Fed said economic conditions in the U.S. are improving but cited concern about economic weakness in developing economies. A number of international economists had urged the Fed not to raise U.S. interest rates, saying the move could have a harmful effect on other economies.

Foreign nations and corporations have borrowed billions of dollars and a rise in U.S. rates would place added costs on those loans.

Wall Street reacted with relief, since cheap money supports current stock valuations, which some economists think are too high.

The housing industry is also relieved. Jonathan Smoke, chief economist at Realtor.com, says a Fed rate hike would have signaled the end of historically low mortgage rates and would have added about 6% to the cost of the average new mortgage.

Because of the Fed's decision, consumers should find mortgage rates, as well as rates on car loans, little changed.

The Fed lowered interest rates to 0% in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis and has not raised them since. It's next opportunity will come at it's October meeting. At that time, the will-it-or-won't-it guessing game will begin again.

Higher costs for housing and energy products sent prices on the consumer level slightly higher in May.

Government figures show the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inched up 0.% last month, bring the rate of inflation over the last 12 months to 1.4%. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com had expected the CPI to show a gain of 0.2% following an 0.4% decline in April

The cost of housing, which rose 0.3% accounted for more than half of the increase in May. Energy prices were up modes modestly, with gasoline prices unchanged but increases showing up in the cost of electricity and natural gas. Higher prices for airline fares, recreation and apparel also contributed to the rise.

Food prices were lower in May index, however, turned down in May, with the food at home index falling 0.3 percent. Nonalcoholic beverages, dairy and related products, and cereals and bakery products posted declines, while meats, poultry, fish and eggs, which increased in April, were was unchanged in May. The only increase was for fruits and vegetables (0.4%) after a 1.4% decline in April.

The “core rate” of inflation, which strips out the volatile food and energy sectors, was up 0.2%.

The full CPI report is available at the Bureau of Labor Statistics website.

New home construction

Home builders were hard at work last month as housing starts jumped 6.8% in May to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 914,000. That's 28.6% the rate of 711,000 a year ago. Ground was broken for single-family homes at a rate of 599,000 in May -- 0.3% above the revised April figure of 597,000. The May rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 306,000.

Looking ahead, meanwhile. Things aren't quite so rosy.

Building permits for privately-owned housing units, an indicator of builders' plans for construction in the months ahead, totaled 974,000 -- down 3.1% from the revised April rate of 1,005,000. Still, that's 20.8% above the May 2012 estimate of 806,000.

Permits for single-family homes were up 1.3% to 622,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 325,000 in May.