Holiday Spending

Retailers are a bit nervous in the weeks leading up to the start of the 2015 holiday shopping season. It remains to be seen how consumers will react.

Will they spend the money they've saved this year on gasoline? Or, will they use that money to pay existing bills and add to savings?

The evidence so far suggests shoppers will be careful with money and look for bargains. Heading into the holiday season, sales have been lackluster and even the National Retail Federation predicts only a modest increase in sales over last year.

“This provides opportunities for retailers and brands to continue to drive sales for a strong year-end finish,” said Lance Eliot, of Interactions, a retail marketing service. 'It’s not surprising that retailers plan for Black Friday sales to make up for any profit shortfalls but how they enable those sales may take some retailers by surprise.”

Buying before Halloween

Eliot cites a report predicting one-third of shoppers will begin buying Christmas gifts before Halloween. For those who are trying to save on holiday purchases, Bryan Leach, CEO of Ibotta, a shopping app, says it will pay to shop early.

“Don’t wait until December to begin buying all your gifts,” he said. “Start scanning sales and stocking up now, since stores typically clear inventory from the previous season and year to fill their shelves with brand new products.”

He says it's also critical to make a budget. By setting a budget now and already having gifts in mind, you’ll be able to scope rebates, coupons, and deals over the next few months, instead of spending a fortune in last minute panic buying.

He also says it will help save money if you plan holiday meals well in advance.

Saving on meals

“Holiday shopping doesn’t just mean gifts under the tree, but a season full of hor’dourves, cocktail hours, and tasty dinners spent with family and friends,” Leach said. “Avoid unnecessary stress over last minute menus by picking out recipes in advance and purchasing any dry goods that you think you may need.”

Meanwhile, the bargains have already started. BestBlackFriday.com reports Sony has cut the price of its popular PlayStation 4 game system to $349.99, which is a discount of $50 from the usual price of $399.99. The discount will remain in place thoughout the holiday season.

We're still 3 weeks from Halloween and the National Retail Federation (NRF) is out with its forecast from sales during the Christmas shopping season.

The NRF says despite a turbulent start to 2014, it sees sales in November and December (excluding autos, gas and restaurant sales) jump 4.1% to $616.9 billion – up 1% from the 2013 increase.

Holiday sales on average have grown 2.9% over the past 10 years, including 2014’s estimates, and are expected to represent approximately 19.2 percent of the retail industry’s annual sales of $3.2 trillion. This would mark the first time since 2011 that holiday sales would be up more than 4%.

“Retailers could see a welcome boost in holiday shopping, giving some companies the shot in the arm they need after a volatile first half of the year and an uneventful summer,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “While expectations for sales growth are upbeat, it goes without saying there still remains some uneasiness and anxiety among consumers when it comes to their purchase decisions. The lagging economic recovery, though improving, is still top of mind for many Americans.

Improving confidence

While consumer confidence has been unstable much of the year, improvements over the past few months in key economic indicators will give way to increased spending power among holiday shoppers. Retail sales, jobs and housing data all point to healthy gains.

“Though we have only seen consumer income and spending moderately -- and erratically -- accelerate this year, we believe there is still room for optimism this holiday season,” said NRF Chief Economist Jack Kleinhenz. “In the grand scheme of things, consumers are in a much better place than they were this time last year, and the extra spending power could very well translate into solid holiday sales growth for retailers; however, shoppers will still be deliberate with their purchases, while hunting for hard-to-pass-up bargains.”

Seasonal hiring to rise 725,000 – 800,000

With the increase in sales, there's likely to be more hiring during the holiday shopping season.

NRF expects retailers will hire between 725,000 and 800,000 seasonal workers -- potentially more than they actually hired during the 2013 holiday season (768,000). Seasonal employment in 2013 increased 14% over 2012.

“These holiday positions offer hundreds of thousands of people the opportunity to turn their seasonal position into a long-term career opportunity in retail,” said Shay.

Growth in online sales expected

Meanwhile, Shop.org says it expects sales will grow between 8 – 11% percent over last holiday season to as much as $105 billion during November and December.

That projection is based on government data including, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases. Holiday non-store sales grew 8.6% last year.

Last year it was showrooming – the practice of checking out merchandise in a store, then ordering it online, usually from some place else.

Retailers hate that and geared up this holiday season to try and counter it with aggressive online deals of their own. But consumers are on to a new trend – webrooming – according to a new survey from Harris Interactive.

Webrooming is just the reverse. A consumer will use a desktop or mobile device at home to check out deals, then head for the store to make the purchase. Retailers like that a little better, though truth be told most big box chains are now so heavily invested in an Internet sales model it probably doesn't matter.

The survey shows that nearly half of U.S. consumers – 46% – have showroomed, up only slightly from last holiday season. But this year 69% of consumers say they have webroomed.

Not mutually exclusive

Showrooming and webrooming are far from mutually exclusive. In fact, the survey shows that those who have done one are more likely to have done the other as well. Six in ten webroomers have showroomed and nearly nine in ten showroomers have webroomed.

All of this points to the importance of the Internet as a shopping tool. Consumers no longer go blindly into a transaction, with no idea what price another store might have on their item of interest.

While retailers may not like showrooming, webrooming places just as much – if not more – pressure on them. In the comfort of their home a consumer has plenty of time to visit multiple sites and conduct multiple searchers, reading multiple reviews before making a decision. In a crowded, noisy store with their smartphone, the same consumer might visit fewer sites before pushing the “buy” button.

That means retailers' websites not only have to have the best prices, their websites also have to be the most functional and easy to use.

You snooze you lose

“If performance is slow, if you're on your mobile phone or a tablet, and you're not able to access the site quickly, people will abandon that transaction,” said Margaret Kuchler, Director of Industry Marketing for Akamai Technologies. “They may be less likely to revisit the site, and may be even less likely to purchase from the company in the future.”

Dr. Gary Edwards, Chief Customer Officer at Empathica, which consults the retail industry, agrees.

The takeaway for retailers is that shoppers expect the customer experience to be continuous across all channels,” he writes in a recent blog entry. “To take advantage of the webrooming trend, leading retail brands are launching initiatives that expand consumers’ access to information online, while retaining control over the customer journey by emphasizing brick-and-mortar as the customer’s final destination.” 

Other research suggests webrooming is more prevalent than showrooming among the Millennial generation. According to research conducted by the Urban Land Institute earlier this year, 50% of consumers age 18-34 prefer to research their purchase online before heading to the store, while only 11% said they preferred to showroom.

Winners

While new trends always present new opportunities for upstarts, the Harris Interactive poll suggests the established players are benefiting most. The survey shows showroomers are spending the most time at Walmart, Best Buy and Target, in that order – then doing the majority of their buying at Amazon.com.

However, Walmart, Best Buy and Target are benefiting the most from the webrooming trend, because after conducting their research at home, that's where most consumers are going to make their purchases, the survey shows.

"When it comes to the battle for consumers' holiday shopping dollars, all retailers are upping their games," said Mike de Vere, President of the Harris Poll. "Online versus brick and mortar retailers each have their own advantages, and poaching customers from competitors is all about playing to those strengths.”

It also provides more choices for consumers. Want to skip the crowded stores this holiday shopping season? Online is a clear answer. Feel better about being able to take your purchase home with you immediately? Brick and mortar stores have you covered.  

Spending on Valentine’s Day gifts is expected to rise this year.

According to the National Retail Federation’s ( NRF)Valentine’s Day Consumer Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics, the average person celebrating Valentine’s Day will spend $142.31 on candy, flowers, apparel and more, compared with $133.91 last year. Total spending is expected to reach $18.9 billion -- a survey high.

“It’s encouraging to see consumers show interest in spending on gifts and Valentine’s Day-related merchandise -- a good sign for consumer sentiment as we head into 2015,” said NRF president and CEO Matthew Shay. “Hoping to draw in eager shoppers, retailers will offer unique promotions on gifts, meal options at restaurants and even experiences.”

Candy, Jewelry and flowers

While most (53.2%) plan to buy candy for the sweet holiday, spending a total of $1.7 billion, one in five (21.1%) plans to buy jewelry for a total of $4.8 billion -- the highest amount seen since NRF began tracking spending on Valentine’s gifts in 2010.

Additionally 37.8% will buy flowers, spending a total of $2.1 billion, and more than one-third (35.1%) will spend on plans for a special night out, including movies and restaurants, totaling $3.6 billion. Celebrants will also spend nearly $2 billion on clothing and $1.5 billion on the gift that keeps on giving: gift cards.

Spending to increase

The survey found nine in 10 (91%) plan to treat their significant others/spouses to something special for the consumer holiday, with plans to spend an average of $87.94 on them -- versus $78.09 last year. Additionally, 58.7% will spend an average of $26.26 on other family members and $6.30 on children’s classmates/teachers.

A record one in five (21.2%) say they will include their pets in their Valentine’s Day plans, looking to spend a mere $5.28 on average -- which equates to a whopping $703 million on pint-sized gifts of all varieties.

Eyes on the wallet

Discount (35.2%) and department stores (36.5%) will be among the most visited locations for those looking for the perfect Valentine’s Day gift, as will specialty stores (19.4%) and florists (18.7%). One-quarter (25.1%) say they will shop online and 13.3 percent will shop at a local or small business to find something unique for their loved one.

It seems women are in for the biggest treat this Valentine’s Day. Men will spend nearly double what women plan to spend ($190.53 vs. $96.58 on average, respectively.) Additionally, adults 25-to-34 will outspend other age groups at an average of $213.04; 35-to-44 year olds will spend an average of $176.21 and 18-to-24 year olds will spend an average of $168.95.

Halloween sales may be cooler, along with the October weather, as fewer consumers plan to celebrate the holiday.

According to the National Retail Federation's (NRF) Halloween Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics, nearly 158 million consumers will participate in Halloween activities, compared with the survey high of 170 million last year.

The survey also says that those who do celebrate will trim their budgets, with the average celebrant expected to spend $75.03 on decor, costumes, candy and fun, down nearly $5 from last year. Overall, average spending on Halloween has increased 54.7 percent since 2005, with total spending estimated to reach $6.9 billion this year.

“Still one of the most beloved and anticipated consumer holidays, Halloween will be far from a bust this year,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “After a long summer, the arrival of fall will put millions of Americans in the spirit to partake in traditional and festive activities.”

How we spend

One of the most cherished parts of the holiday -- dressing in costume -- will once again be popular. According to the survey, 43.6% of people plan to dress up and will spend a total of $2.6 billion on traditional and awe-inspiring costumes. Specifically, consumers will shell out $1.04 billion on children’s costumes, and $1.22 billion on adult costumes.

When it comes to pets, 13.8% of those celebrating will take the extra time to find the perfect costume for their four-legged friends to the tune of approximately $330 million.

Additionally, celebrants will spend $2.08 billion on candy and $360 million on greeting cards. Second only to Christmas in terms of spending on decorations, consumers will shell out $1.96 billion on life-size skeletons, fake cob webs, mantle pieces and other festive decorations.

When we shop

For the first time, NRF asked when people will begin shopping for Halloween. According to the survey, nearly one-third (32.8%) begin shopping before September 30. An additional 67.2% of consumers will shop in October. Specifically, 43.6% will begin the first two weeks in October and 23.6% will wait until the final two weeks of the month.

When it comes to inspiration for costume ideas, one-third (32.9%) will search for costume ideas online, another third (32.8%) will look for new ideas in a store, and one-fifth (20.8%) will seek advice from friends or family. Additionally, 14.1% will check Facebook  for inspiration and 3.8% will review blogs.

Nearly one in 10 (9.3%) will scour the visually-appealing Pinterest for costume ideas, versus 7.1% last year. Of those buying or making costumes, the average person will spend $27.85 -- a few cents less than last year.

How we celebrate

There are a variety of ways consumers will celebrate this year, with handing out candy being the most popular (72.0%). Others will carve a pumpkin (44.2%), visit a haunted house (20.3%), take their child trick-or-treating (31.7%) and decorate their home and/or yard (47.5%). Three in 10 (30.9%) will attend or host a party.

Despite the anticipation of the popular fall event, one-fourth of U.S. consumers (25.2%) say the state of the economy will affect their Halloween spending plans -- nearly nine in 10 (86.1%) will spend less overall, up a touch from last year. Additionally, 32.7% will buy less candy and 18.1% will make a costume instead of buying one.

Nearly stagnant disposable incomes, the government shutdown and a general waning of consumer coonfidence are expected to take a toll on sales in the coming Christmas shopping season.

IBISWorld is forecasting weak Thanksgiving and holiday gift spending, with revenue generated by the Thanksgiving holiday increasing only slightly from 2012. And, say these experts, while Cyber Monday sales are anticipated to increase strongly by double-digits this year, this growth rate is deceptive. Forecasters say it's mainly due to consumers’ continued shift away from physical store shopping and toward online deals.

The bottom line: Overall gift spending from Black Friday through Cyber Monday is expected to grow by a meager 2.2% year-over-year.

Thanksgiving

Compared with last year, Thanksgiving spending is anticipated to grow 3.7% -- to $8.2 billion. More than two-thirds of this figure is expected to come from spending on food and drink for family gatherings and festivities; this category is expected to increase 5.1% from 2012. Celebrating the year-end holidays with loved ones remains an important tradition for many Americans, so spending on consumables is not expected to suffer much, despite poor confidence.

Families and relatives are expected to gather around the turkey this year, with 87.8% of US households expected to celebrate T-day. The average household will spend $52.75 on Thanksgiving dinner and $31.23 on turkey alone. Other, more discretionary expenses such as greeting cards, gifts and decorations are not anticipated to grow much this year -- increasing only 0.7%. Consumers are more likely to dedicate their cash to food and drinks.

Thanksgiving Sales

All dollar figures are in constant 2013 dollars

Holiday shopping

With tight budgets expected this season, Black Friday and Cyber Monday spending increases are projected to be smaller than those of 2012. This year, Black Friday is forecast to generate $13.6 billion in revenue -- an increase of 3.9% over last year’s total. The smaller increase is due to the continued sluggish growth in disposable incomes and relentless high unemployment. Still, growth in Black Friday revenue will be driven largely by door-buster deals and online sales that start at midnight. With bellies full of turkey, consumers are likely to jump on these online promotions; others will opt to walk the food off at retail locations, vying to score a great deal.

Spending during the Black Friday weekend (which includes Friday, Saturday and Sunday) is anticipated to grow just 1.7% to $38.7 billion. The bulk of weekend purchases (35.2%) is expected to be made on Black Friday itself, owing to enticing sales and the spirit of the day itself.

Cyber Monday, while still only about 15.0% the size of Black Friday in terms of revenue, is forecast to record double-digit growth of 13.1%. The $1.8 billion shopping day has increasingly made its way to the top of shoppers’ preferences for its plethora of online deals and free shipping promotions. This year will be no exception, as Cyber Monday outpaces growth during the remainder of the shopping weekend.

Black Friday and Cyber Monday Sales

Despite all the TV commercials pushing holiday merchandise, it appears that not everybody is hitting the malls early.

The new Holiday Consumer Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights & Analytics for the National Retail Federation (NRF) finds 45.6% of those asked say they haven’t started shopping yet -- relatively flat with last years’ 46.2%. Still, it's the lowest in the survey’s 7-year history.

“Many consumers are going to wait and see how great the promotions will be later this season before making any commitments,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Retailers have reacted to this ‘wait and see’ mentality with fewer October deals and a much quieter entry into November, when we’ll start to see retailers ramp up with offers for exclusive merchandise, deep discounts and unique online savings opportunities.”

Procrastinators and early birds

The survey found that while slightly fewer people haven’t started shopping yet, 20.6% have finished 10 % or less of their shopping, while 12.4% have completed about one-quarter of their lists; 2.2% are saying they can sit back and relax as they have already finished their shopping for friends and family.

Unsurprisingly, apparel, toys and video games will be popular gift items this year. The survey found 6 in 10 (60.9%) will buy clothing and accessories, 46.3% will buy books, CDs, DVDs and video games, and two in five (42%) will buy toys.

Likely having loaded up on wearable technology items and new smartphones throughout the year, slightly fewer people will buy electronic items as gifts (30.7% vs. 33%). Some people are in for a real treat: 24% of shoppers will buy jewelry for a friend or family member -- the highest percent since 2006.

Gift cards continue as a favorite for both shoppers and recipients as 60% will buy gift cards, similar to the 59.2% who planned to do so last year. In an October NRF survey, 60% of shoppers also said they’d like to receive gift cards, marking gift cards the most requested gift item for 8 years in a row.

What to buy

Shoppers look for inspiration for gifts from every corner, and with the innovative creation of retailers’ wish lists, many consumers this season will take to the web to point loved ones to specific, perfect gift ideas. The survey found 32.1% say they will look for inspiration on wish lists, compared with 28.8% last year. Others will conduct online searches (47.7%), discuss options with family and friends (41.7%), check out advertising circulars (34.3%) and email ads (20.1%), and even search Facebook (10.6%).

"Retailers make holiday shoppers’ job easy with so many options to find the perfect gift, and with little room to waste on gifts that don't make sense, consumers today want to be sure what they buy is used and enjoyed by their loved ones," said Prosper's Principal Analyst Pam Goodfellow. "On the hunt for bargains, quality merchandise that is unique and even exclusive, gift givers this holiday season will seek out both practical and indulgent gift items, though being sure not to break the bank."

When it comes to how shoppers will pay for their gifts, nearly four in 10 (38%) will use their credit card, the most in the survey’s history and up nearly 10% from last year; one in five (21.6%) will use cash and 38.4% will use their debit or check card. Just 2.1% will use a check -- the lowest in the survey’s history.

When broken down by age group, young adults (18-24) are the least likely to use credit to pay for gifts at just 17.7%, and 65+ are the most likely to use credit cards at 56%. Nearly half of 18-24 year olds (48.9%) plan to use their debit or check card to buy gift items.  

Barbie has learned -- as we all do -- that all good things come to an end.

According to the National Retail Federation’s (NRF) latest Holiday Top Toys Survey, one in five parents (20%) plan to buy Disney’s Frozen merchandise for the little girls in their life this holiday season , beating out the top reigning Barbie (16.8%) for the first time in the survey’s 11-year history.

LEGO toys are number one again for boys this year (14.2%).

“Parents will not have to go far to find good deals on the toys their children have put at the top of their lists,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “Retailers have spent weeks preparing for the holiday rush to make sure that the season’s hottest toys are both easy to find in stores and online, and competitively priced.”

Toys on top

According to NRF’s 2014 holiday consumer survey, 42% of shoppers plan to buy toys as gifts this holiday season. For girls, dolls hold the top spots at #2 (Barbie), #3 (generic), #4 (Monster High Dolls) and #5 (American Girl), while boys have made it clear they still want cars and trucks #2.

Boys and girls alike have requested tablets/Apple iPads from mom and dad this holiday season (girls #7 and boys #10). Other familiar items will be awaiting children, including My Little Pony (#8 for girls) and Hot Wheels and Xbox One (#5 and #6 for boys.)

“Barbie has been the top girls’ toy for over a decade, but it is no surprise that Disney’s Frozen has taken the top seat as children have had it on the mind as far back as Halloween,” said Prosper’s Consumer Insights Director Pam Goodfellow.

2014 Top Toys for Boys

1. LEGO
2. Cars & Trucks
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles
4. Video Games
5. Hot Wheels
6. Xbox One
7. PlayStation 4
8. Transformers
9. Remote Controlled Vehicles
10. Marvel Action Figures (T)/Tablet/Apple iPad(T)

2014 Top Toys for Girls

1. Disney Frozen
2. Barbie
3. Dolls (generic)
4. Monster High Dolls
5. American Girl
6. LEGO
7. Tablet/Apple iPad
8. My Little Pony
9. Disney Doc McStuffins
10. Apparel

As the holiday season swings into gear so does competitive shopping with consumers scoping out merchandise in physical stores and then comparison shopping for the lowest price on their mobile device or computer, dubbed “showrooming” In an effort to combat or “embrace” this phenomenon some retailers led by Best Buy have implemented strategies including price matching to convert more shoppers into buyers. Nobody is winning in this new game, manufacturers, retailers or the customer.

While I applaud retailers’ recognition that mobile technology is here to stay and for building a strategy they can use to their advantage, they are embracing short term solutions at best. Just as Ebenezer Scrooge clung to his tight-fisted and greedy ways before he was enlightened, retailers and manufacturers need to embrace new methodologies and practices to combat “showrooming” as price matching may have a negative impact on everyone in the purchase stream, not just the retailer.

What’s the Scrooge-factor for retailers? Sadly, retailers may find themselves matching prices with unauthorized, fly-by-night retailers that have a few units. While the rogue sellers have very little inventory they can impact price matching generated by algorithmic price dropping which results in margin pressure on everybody. As bricks and mortars begin to match the price with online retailers they will have less money available to promote sales in their stores, maintain the requisite levels of employees needed for great customer service and will drop lines that are no longer profitable.

Bah, humbug effect

Ebenezer has a “bah, humbug” effect on manufacturers as retailers responding to the ever decreasing prices below minimum advertised prices or suggested retail prices often look to the manufacturers for financial compensation. This compensation can come in the form of deductions from invoices being paid, demands for other discounts or other benefits to help subsidize the retailers’ marketing decision to match the lower online price.

The manufacturers’ sales force need to spend quality time promoting the benefits of their products to retailers to ensure the consumer becomes a satisfied purchaser. The price gauging turns the sales team attention to why one retailer is getting a lower price than another. Ultimately, manufacturers may be forced to only work with retailers who sell their products for the value the manufacturer attaches to the product.

The money that the manufacturer is forced to spend on compensating retailers, monitoring price issues and dedicating resources to detail with the resulting customer service issues has to come from somewhere. , It may result in the loss of jobs, reduced marketing and research and development budgets.

The Ghost of Christmas Yet to Come has negative consequences for the “showrooming”-addicted consumer as well. While the consumer will have short term gains with reduced prices, the long term forecast will likely result in fewer choices, less innovation and reduced quality as the manufacturers seeks to eke out acceptable margins.

As an industry, we must continue to look for ways to promote products that protect reasonable margins for the retailer and manufacturer while still providing value for the consumer. As the number of smart phones and comparison shopping tools increase, the impact of “showrooming” will continue to mushroom and everyone but a select few will lose.

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Jeff Mariola is CEO of DigitalBrandWorks, a digital consultancy which specializes in representing manufacturers in the digital marketplaces and ensuring proper overall representation of product's pricing and content online. Previously, Mariola served as President of Ambius, the premier creator of ambience for businesses and a division of Rentokil Initial plc., (LSE: RTO) a publicly traded international business-to-business service organization based in the UK, where he led the company’s European and North American businesses.