New tariffs on imported toys are pushing prices up, thinning inventory, and making big-name brands harder to find
Shoppers will see fewer familiar brands, sneaky shrinkflation in the box, and higher prices on in-demand “hot” toys
Parents can push back by shopping early, checking what’s actually in the box, choosing non-tariff or secondhand options, and stacking every discount on tariff-heavy toys
Parents heading into the toy aisle this year may notice that something is off, even if they can’t quite put a finger on it. The number of toys on the shelf looks a little thinner and brand-name favorites are harder to find.
And the part that hurts the most is that “under $20” toy somehow rings up closer to $30.
A new wave of tariffs on imported goods, especially toys and other kid gifts, is already working its way into prices across the country.
In Edmonds, Washington, the owner of longtime local shop Teri’s Toybox told KOMO News that her costs are up 30% to 50% this year. “Everything has just skyrocketed,” she said, adding that she’s had to order less and raise price tags to stay afloat.
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF), U.S. holiday spending is on track to top $1 trillion for the first time this year, with average shoppers planning to shell out around $890 each. But a growing share of that money is going to higher prices and not more toys for the kids and tariffs is one of the main factors at play.
What this looks like in the toy aisle
For the average shopper not paying attention to the complexities of the current tariff situation, here’s what you should expect this year:
- Thinner inventory. Retailers in multiple states say they’ve cut back orders or delayed re-stocking certain toy lines because they’re more expensive. This includes Barbie, Tonka, Care Bears, Hot Wheels, and Hasbro “hot toys.”
- Fewer familiar brands. When tariffs make a favorite brand more expensive, some stores are forced to swap in cheaper, lesser-known brands from other countries. So instead of Lego sets from Denmark, or German Playmobil playsets, you might find knock-offs from countries not as affected by tariffs.
- Quiet shrinkflation. Instead of hiking the sticker price on a big play set, some manufacturers will just cut what’s inside the box. Expect things like fewer cars in a race set, fewer outfits in a fashion doll pack, or fewer accessories in a kitchen or workbench toy. All done while keeping the price the same.
- Higher “ceiling” on hot toys. For in-demand hot toys (and brands) that people will buy regardless of price, retailers have more room to raise prices without losing sales.
Meanwhile, overall holiday spending is still expected to be strong. Forecasters expects retail sales in November and December to grow about 3.7% to 4.2% over last year.
So, the takeaway is that parents still want to buy their kids the toys on their wish list, even if it means getting less toy for the money.
What parents can do right now
Unfortunately, you can’t personally rewrite tariff policy before Christmas hits. But you can definitely shop more strategically in an effort to get around the tariffs.
Here are a few smart ways to push back:
1. Shop early for “must-have” imports
If your kid wants a specific branded doll, building set, or electronic toy that’s likely made in China, don’t wait until the last minute.
Between tariffs and thinner inventory, there’s a decent chance it won’t get cheaper as we get closer to Christmas morning. It might actually sell out entirely and leave you stuck buying it on eBay for 4x the retail price.
Pro tip: When you’re shopping online, on the product page, scroll to the “details” or “specs” section to see where the toy is made. If it’s from China and the price feels high, open a new tab and search the same type of toy with “made in USA” added to your search. You’ll often find a similar, tariff-safe option, that costs less. Your kid will never notice the brand swap.
2. Compare what’s in the box, not just the price
When you’re comparing similar toys across stores (or versions from last year vs. this year), be sure to check the following:
- How many pieces are included.
- Whether accessories (extra tracks, figures, etc.) are the same.
- If the “value pack” really has more, or just a bigger box with more air in it.
Shrinkflation is a lot easier to hide in toy packaging than on a grocery shelf so make sure you know what you’re getting.
3. Look for non-tariff alternatives where it doesn’t matter to your kid
There are some toy categories where brand isn’t super important.
This includes things like puzzles, basic blocks, art supplies, tickets to local attractions, and craft kits.
When buying these, consider the following:
- Buy toys made in the U.S. and avoid tariffs altogether.
- Shop local toy shops that feature smaller domestic toy makers.
- Look for experience-based gifts (museum passes, classes, tickets) that don’t depend on imports at all.
I think it’s a very smart move to save your brand loyalty for the one or two “big” gifts your child will really notice.
Pro tip: If your kid has a “non-negotiable” big gift this year, lock that in first at the best price you can find. Then you can build the rest of your list around more tariff-safe stuff (U.S./EU-made toys, puzzles, craft kits, experiences). By doing it this way, you’re only paying the “tariff tax” on one or two things instead of everything under the tree.
4. Use secondhand for big-ticket items
Things like play kitchens, wagons, train tables, and ride-on toys often survive multiple families.
Check local buy/sell Facebook groups, consignment shops, and refurbished marketplaces before you pay full, tariff-inflated prices on this stuff.
5. Stack every discount you can on tariff-heavy toys
If you are buying something that you know is tariff-exposed do the following:
- Try to combine store coupons with loyalty rewards or cash-back offers.
- Always compare multiple retailers, including buy-online-pick-up-in-store options.
- Don’t forget to factor in shipping costs as the best base price isn’t always the best total price.
Bottom line: higher prices are already baked into most toys this holiday, even if the box looks exactly the same as last year. This means it’s time to change your strategy and save some money in the process.