Current Events in October 2013

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    "Smart" shelves to spy on grocery store customers

    Sensors determine the age and sex of customers for real-time targeted ads

    If you’ve ever wanted to say, “The shelves at the grocery store are spying on me” without being accused of harboring paranoid delusions, just wait until 2015.

    That’s the year supermarket supercompany Mondelez International (owner of such brands as Nabisco, Kraft, Cadbury and others), in conjunction with Microsoft Kinect, will introduce so-called “smart” store shelves that can “identify the age and sex of the would-be snacker” in the supermarket aisle, the better to decide what sort of junk-food advertising to aim at them/us.  

    Tech journalists were nearly unanimous in their effusive praise for this brave new world of in-store targeted advertising. Brian Fung at the Washington Post said, “It’s not quite Minority Report levels of creepiness, but it’s getting there,”  while Fastcompany.com’s Neal Ungerleider noted “the ultimate in creepy yet inevitable marketing tech.”

    The idea is that, in addition to identifying the age and gender of consumers, the “smart” shelves will be equipped with weight sensors that notice when an item has been moved. Presumably, then, when the sensors detect that a box of cookies has been lifted up by a female aged 18-34, various in-store coupon dispensers or display screens will belch forth whatever suggestions their adbot algorithms think will persuade young women to buy cookies.

    Then again ...

    Or maybe not. As we’ve noted before, when marketers try targeting campaigns specifically at women, the results tend to be clueless at best and insulting at worst  (no, pink packaging does not justify a fourfold price increase). Maybe they do better at marketing to men, though we’re inclined to doubt it.

    So, from a consumer angle, we’re not sure what concerns we should focus toward this forthcoming smartshelf grocery technology: “Oh, no, it might persuade me to buy more junk food than I can afford,” or “Aw, crap, shopping’s irritating enough without computerized sensors tossing asinine ads my way.”

    If this smartshelf technology does indeed take off year after next, we hope that, in response, we can write a “Trends” story with the headline “Grocery shopping in drag: everybody’s doing it.” We personally intend to urge our friends who buy food to foil the sensors by subverting as many age- and gender-related marketing stereotypes as they can.

    So if you’re a young woman, try grocery shopping while wearing a gray Gandalf beard and uttering stereotypical old-man phrases like “I look forward to watching this weekend’s televised sporting events, all of which were better in my day.”

    By contrast, if you’re an older man, you should wear something pink and then, speaking directly into the sensor, say “Sports are boring. Let’s talk about our relationship.”

    We bet you’ll see some hilariously funny ads, either way.

    If you’ve ever wanted to say “The shelves at the grocery store are spying on me” without being accused of harboring paranoid delusions, j...

    Should doctors have to pee in a cup too?

    Consumer group presses for mandatory drug testing of doctors

    It seems that just about everybody is asked to take a drug test these days -- everyone from school bus drivers to parolees.

    Not doctors, though. And that seems wrong to Consumer Watchdog, a California non-profit that is promoting an initiative measure that would appear on the November 2014 ballot in California.

    The Troy and Alana Pack Patient Safety Act would require mandatory physician drug and alcohol testing. The measure would also require doctors to report colleagues who are under the influence while on duty, check patient histories before prescribing narcotics to help identify drug abusers, and would update the state’s 38-year-old cap on malpractice victims’ recovery mandatory.

    It goes without saying that the measure is not popular with doctors.

    To drive their point home, backers have been producing a series of videos, dubbed the “Pee In A Cup The Musical” series. The latest episode greeted doctors arriving at the Disneyland Anaheim Marriott last Saturday for the evening Awards Gala at the California Medical Association’s annual meeting.

    A mobile video truck circled just outside the security perimeter in front of the hotel, playing the musical video that makes the case for mandatory drug testing of doctors.

    Doctor shopper

    The initiative is named for the children of Bob Pack, who were walking with their parents on a sidewalk in Danville, Calif., when a car swerved off the road, killing the two children and injuring Pack's wife, Carmen, who was then pregnant with twins. The unborn twins were also lost in the accident.

    The driver of the car, Jimena Barreto, turned out to be a doctor-shopping drug addict who was convicted of second-degree murder and imprisoned for 30 years to life. The Kaiser doctors who prescribed her thousands of pills, however, were never held accountable for their negligence.

    Barreto had no physical symptoms, but managed to stockpile narcotics without any oversight.

    Learn more about the initiative here.

    It seems that just about everybody is asked to take a drug test these days -- everyone from school bus drivers to parolees.Not doctors, though. And that ...

    Are Oreos really as addictive as cocaine?

    News flash: rats prefer Oreos to rice cakes, cocaine to saline water

    Are Oreo cookies as addictive as cocaine? According to neuroscientists at Connecticut College, the answer is “yes” – at least, if you assume “any stimulation of the brain’s pleasure centers” equates to “addiction.”

    Today.com reports that neuroscience professor Joseph Schroeder and his students reached their conclusions after testing lab rats in mazes. In one test, rats who successfully navigated a maze could choose between eating Oreos or rice cakes. In another test, rats were given a choice between getting injected with saline solution, or injected with cocaine or morphine.

    Rats in the first group consistently chose to eat Oreos over rice cakes, while rats in the second group consistently chose to be injected with cocaine rather than salt water. Turns out that Oreos and cocaine stimulate the brain’s pleasure centers, whereas rice cakes and salt water do not.

    “These findings suggest that high fat/sugar foods and drugs of abuse trigger brain addictive processes to the same degree and lend support to the hypothesis that maladaptive eating behaviors contributing to obesity can be compared to drug addiction,” Schroder’s team wrote in their introduction to the study, which is to be presented to the Society of Neuroscience next month.

    We are not neuroscientists, and we did not read the actual study, only Today.com’s brief summary. So we’re going to assume—or hope—that the actual study is far more nuanced than Today’s synopsis, because the suggestion “any stimulation of the brain’s pleasure center equals addiction” strikes us as a terrifying case of false equivalence.  

    Are Oreo cookies as addictive as cocaine? According to neuroscientists at Connecticut College, the answer is “yes” – at least, if you ass...

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      Texas objects to sale of True.com's 43-million-member database

      When they signed up, customers were told their information was safe with True

      Although you would never know it to look at its site, dating site True.com has been in bankruptcy proceedings for more than a year and is in the process of selling off its assets.

      One of those assets is its database of 43 million consumers. The site's parent company, True Beginnings, based in Plano, Texas, has been seeking permission from the bankruptcy court to sell its database to a Canadian dating service.

      Texas Attorney General Greg Abbott thinks that's a bad idea.

      "The proper course is for True.com and its bankruptcy trustee to seek the customers’ permission before selling their private information to a third party – and that’s exactly what our legal action asks the bankruptcy court to require before the case proceeds,” Abbott said in a statement after he filed an objection with the court.

      Unfortunately, Abbott's action would only affect the 2 million or so Texans registered with the service. The other 41 million are on their own.

      In the court filing objecting to the membership database sale, Abbott argues that the bankruptcy trustee must first give True.com’s members an opportunity to object to the sale of their personal information. True Beginnings has stated that it merely intends to notify members via email that their personal information has been sold.

      However, the proposed email notice does not ask customers to first approve the transfer of their sensitive data. Under the current transfer process, to which Abbott objects, the information would be transferred unless the customer takes direct steps to opt-out.

      Abbott seeks approval for customers to be allowed to opt-in by having them express approval for the transfer of their personal information.

      "Ambiguous and deceptive"

      During the sign-up process, True.com customers were told their personal information could not be transferred without their consent. However, Abbott says that "ambiguous and deceptive language embedded within True.com’s privacy policy quietly noted that members’ personal information held in the company’s database would be treated as a transferable asset in the event the company was acquired by a third-party buyer."

      The Attorney General’s legal filing urges the bankruptcy court to require the trustee to abide by the terms presented to customers when they signed up for the dating web site.

      Although you would never know it to look at its site, dating site True.com has been in bankruptcy proceedings for more than a year and is in the process of...

      New mortgage servicing rules clarified

      The new rules take effect in January

      Communications with family members after a borrower dies, contact with delinquent borrowers, and treatment of consumers who have filed for bankruptcy are at the heart of an interim final rule issued by the the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB).

      “As servicing implementation enters its final phases, we heard from many sources that it was important to address these remaining issues to ensure a smooth transition and provide certainty to the market,” said CFPB Director Richard Cordray. “When mortgage servicers better understand the rules they have to follow, that is better for consumers.”

      Mortgage servicers are responsible for collecting payments from mortgage borrowers on behalf of loan owners. They also typically handle customer service, escrow accounts, collections, loan modifications and foreclosures. Generally, borrowers have no say in choosing their mortgage servicers.

      Even before the financial meltdown, the mortgage servicing industry experienced problems with bad practices and sloppy record-keeping. Even now, many borrowers experience serious problems seeking loan modifications or other alternatives to avoid foreclosure.

      In January 2013, the CFPB issued rules to establish new, strong protections for struggling homeowners, including those facing foreclosure. The rules protect mortgage borrowers from costly surprises and runarounds by their servicers.

      Three issues addressed

      These clarifications are a response to requests for further explanation on three servicing issues:

      • Home retention efforts after a borrower dies: In cases in which a borrower dies, the rules the CFPB issued in January require servicers to have policies and procedures in place to ensure that they promptly identify and communicate with family members, heirs, or other parties who have a legal interest in the home. The new bulletin provides examples of such servicer policies and procedures, including allowing for continued payment on the mortgage as well as evaluating the heir (or whomever the legal interest in the home passes to) for assumption of the mortgage and, if appropriate, for loss mitigation measures.
      • Early intervention requirement to contact delinquent borrowers: The CFPB’s new rules require servicers to attempt contact with borrowers each time they miss a payment to provide important information that can help get them on track. Thew newly issued rule bulletin clarifies that this requirement may be met through other contact that servicers have with such borrowers, for example, when evaluating them for loss mitigation or during collection calls. Also, the method of attempted contact may vary depending on how long a borrower is delinquent or on whether the borrower has responded to earlier servicer attempts to communicate.
      • Interplay between the servicing rules, bankruptcy code, and the Fair Debt Collection Practices Act (FDCPA): Both the FDCPA and bankruptcy law provide significant protections for consumers who decide to invoke them and restrict certain types of communications regarding their debts. The CFPB has received a large number of questions about how these other protections intersect with the servicing rules and how to communicate effectively with borrowers who have invoked their other rights. In that light, the CFPB is:

            --- Clarifying that even if delinquent borrowers have instructed servicers to stop communicating with them pursuant to the FDCPA, certain notices and communications mandated by the CFPB servicing rules and the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act are still required. Specifically, servicers must communicate with the borrower with regard to requests for loss mitigation, information requests, error resolution, force-placed insurance, initial interest rate adjustment of adjustable-rate mortgages and periodic statements. However, servicers will not be required to provide certain early intervention contacts or ongoing notices of interest rate adjustments to delinquent borrowers who have instructed the servicer to stop communicating with them.

            --- Exempting servicers from being required to provide periodic account statements and certain early intervention contacts with borrowers who are in bankruptcy. The bureau says it believes further assessment is warranted regarding how bankruptcy protections intersect with these servicing requirements and how to ensure that the servicing communications do not confuse consumers regarding the status of their loans.

      Among other things, the interim final rule also clarifies regulations issued by the CFPB in January to implement a provision of the Dodd-Frank Act that requires consumers to receive housing counseling before taking out a high-cost mortgage. The rule specifies which federally required disclosure must be used as the basis for counseling for a small subset of closed-end loans that are not subject to the Real Estate Settlement Procedures Act.

      Communications with family members after a borrower dies, contact with delinquent borrowers, and treatment of consumers who have filed for bankruptcy are a...

      Builder confidence dips in October

      Washington wrangling and higher mortgage rates are blamed

      The government shutdown, the debt limit battle and rising mortgage rates have home builders on edge.

      According to the latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), builder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes fell two points in October from a downwardly revised reading for September -- to a level of 55.

      “Builder optimism remains above 50 and we are still seeing signs of pent-up demand in many markets across the country,” said NAHB Chairman Rick Judson. “This slight dip in builder sentiment is the result of continuing challenges in the marketplace with regard to the cost and availability of labor and lots and uncertainty in Washington”

      NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe adds that a spike in mortgage interest rates along with the paralysis in Washington that led to the government shutdown and uncertainty regarding the nation’s debt limit have caused builders and consumers to take pause. “However,” he adds, “interest rates remain near historic lows and we don’t expect the level of rates to have a major impact on sales and starts going forward. Once this government impasse is resolved, we expect builder and consumer optimism will bounce back.”

      The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next six months as “good,” “fair” or “poor.” The survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average” or “low to very low.” Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

      Across the board decline

      All of the HMI’s three components each fell two points in October. The component gauging current sales conditions registered 58, while the component gauging sales expectations in the next six months posted a reading of 62 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers was 44.

      Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the South held steady at 56, the West declined a single point to 60 and the Northeast fell three points to 38. The Midwest posted a one-point gain to 64.

      An insider's look

      With the partial shutdown of the federal government preventing the U.S. Census Bureau from releasing a housing starts estimate for September, NAHB has prepared its own.

      It estimates that the seasonally adjusted annual rate of construction for single-family homes was between 620,000 and 630,000 units in September.

      NAHB also estimates that the pace of construction of multifamily units was an additional 255,000 to 270,000, bringing the anticipated pace of total housing starts in September to between 875,000 and 900,000 units.

      “The NAHB estimate of 875,000 to 900,000 total housing starts is based on continuing improvement in single-family starts and ongoing volatility in multifamily construction,” said Crowe.

      “Single-family starts dipped in July but rebounded in August, and we expect continued strength in September,” Crowe added. “The Fed meeting in mid-September provided additional relief to builders and buyers that interest rates would remain near historic lows for the immediate future, encouraging consumers back into the housing market.

      “Meanwhile, multifamily starts have been unusually volatile since the beginning of the year, swinging between 250,000 and 400,000 units from month-to-month,” he continued. “We expect some bounce back from the August pace of 263,000 as multifamily starts continue to trend around 300,000 units.”

      The government shutdown, the debt limit battle and rising mortgage rates have home builders on edge. According to the latest National Association of Home ...

      Mortgage applications up again

      It's the second straight week applications have been higher

      Mortgage applications increased 0.3% from one week earlier, as the market digested the ramifications of the continuing government shut down and a possible government default.

      In its report, the Mortgage Bankers Association also said the refinance index increased 3% from the previous week, pushing the refinance share of mortgage activity 66% of total applications -- up 2% from the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity decreased to 6% of total applications.

      “The government shutdown had a notable impact on the mortgage market last week. Purchase applications for government programs dropped by more than 7 percent over the week to their lowest level since December 2007, and the government share of purchase applications dropped to its lowest level in almost three years,” said Mike Fratantoni, MBA’s vice president of research and economics. “Conventional purchase applications dropped as well, but not to the same extent, falling almost 4 percent for the week.”

      The refinance share of mortgage activity increased to 66 percent of total applications from 64 percent the previous week. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share of activity was 6 percent of total applications.

      Interest rates

      The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) increased to 4.46% from 4.42%, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.44 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

      The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRMs with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) increased to 4.51% from 4.45%, with points decreasing to 0.15 from 0.21 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

      The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRMs backed by the FHA increased to 4.16% from 4.15%, with points increasing to 0.44 from 0.37 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

      The average contract interest rate for 15-year FRMs increased to 3.53% from 3.52%, with points decreasing to 0.31 from 0.34 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

      The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs remained unchanged at 3.25%, with points increasing to 0.32 from 0.29 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.

      The survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

      Mortgage applications increased 0.3% from one week earlier, as the market digested the ramifications of the continuing government shut down and a possible ...

      How to avoid putting on pounds over the holidays

      If you can survive Halloween, you've got a chance

      The holidays can be a dangerous time for people trying to control their weight. There are parties with food and drink, celebratory dinners with family and friends and plenty of cookies, candy and pastries.

      You can easily consume more sugar between October and January than you do the other nine months combined, unless you exercise a little self-control.

      The temptation starts with Halloween. In case you haven't noticed stores putting out their Halloween displays around Labor Day. At the grocery store in early October you may be tempted to pick up several bags of Halloween candy.

      Willpower needed

      Unless you have exceptional willpower, that's a bad idea. Once a bag gets opened it's easy to start snacking, running through your candy stash well before October 31st. Halloween candy, it turns out, is a slippery slope that can propel you into the holidays on the wrong nutritional foot.

      It can be even worse at work, with co-workers bringing in orange-colored candy, cake, donuts and cupcakes. Health experts Dian Griesel, Ph.D., and Tom Griesel, who've written books on nutrition and weight control, suggest bringing up your concerns at work, letting co-workers know you're trying to avoid temptation and extra weight gain. Gently suggest that they keep candy and other goodies out of your sight and reach.

      But that doesn't mean you can't get into the spirit of things. The Griesels suggest brewing a pot of pumpkin-flavored coffee or tea to share or bringing in fruit or low-cal desserts.

      On to Thanksgiving

      Once you get past Halloween there's Thanksgiving to contend with, and food seems to play a bigger and bigger role in celebrations the closer you get to New Year's Day. Nutritionists at the Cleveland Clinic offer a number of tips that can allow you to enjoy yourself without packing on the pounds. Being aware of the high-calorie content of the food you are offered is a first step.

      “Even though it’s hard to resist temptations all around you, there are simple steps you can take that can keep the extra holiday pounds off,” said Julia Renee Zumpano, a registered dietitian at the Cleveland Clinic. 

      Among the tips – never go to a holiday party hungry. You'll find it much harder to control yourself. In fact, during the holidays make it a point to eat balanced, nutritious meals each day. You'll be less hungry and less likely to give in to temptation.

      Just a bite

      A particular treat may look delicious and just because it's fattening, it doesn't mean you can't try it. But just take a bite and discard the rest. Most of us would think of that as wasteful but in this case, you're simply preserving your waistline.

      When you sit down at a holiday dinner, eat more vegetables, fruit and salad and less turkey, ham, beef and stuffing. And by all means, skip the gravy and sauces.

      Go easy on the alcohol. A glass of wine or beer contains about 100 calories. An ounce of distilled spirits, about the same. By substituting club soda for two holiday drinks you save about 200 calories.

      Finally, don't forget to exercise, burning off some of those extra calories you will inevitably consume. Many people wait until January to resolve to get into shape. Don't wait, start now when it can do you some real good and before the damage is done.

      According to the Mayo Clinic the typical holiday weight gain is probably less than five pounds, which doesn't sound like much. The problem is, that weight is almost never lost -- so it adds up to 50 pounds every ten years or so. Being mindful of your eating all year round – but especially during the holidays – is the best way to keep your weight at a healthy level.

      The holidays can be a dangerous time for people trying to control their weight. There are parties with food and drink, celebratory dinners with family and ...

      Frederick’s of Hollywood shipping policies: less uplifting than their merchandise

      Shipping charges appear on credit cards six months after purchases

      Did the Frederick’s of Hollywood billing computer catch a nasty virus this month? We ask because, after going almost the whole summer and well into fall without receiving a single complaint about the company, everything changed in October.

      In just the first 15 days of this month, ten* different people from all over the country wrote us with almost the exact same complaint: several months ago, they say, they ordered something from Frederick’s of Hollywood and were promised free shipping. Now, they’re finding unauthorized Frederick’s shipping charges on their credit cards.

      Our attempts to ask Frederick’s about this were unsuccessful; rather than give us an email address or phone number we could use to contact the company, the best offer we got was the chance to give them our phone number, in exchange for which we received a vague promise that somebody would call us back at some indeterminate future point. We’ll let you know if anything comes of that.

      Meanwhile, check out this sampling of our readers told us this month, and see if you don’t notice a pattern. Ally H. of Cleveland Heights, Ohio, kicked off the month when she wrote us this:

      “On July 17, 2013 I received a promotional email from Frederick's of Hollywood with the subject line: ‘Three words: Fierce. Wild. Vixen. Plus, free shipping on everything.’ The email stated ‘We pay for shipping. No minimum purchase.’ At the time of purchase, I was not charged for shipping.”

      So then what happened? “Today, October 1, 2013 I received an email from Frederick's stating that a billing error occurred on 7/17/2013 when I placed my order and that, as a result I was not charged the $5.95 shipping cost. Thus, they will be billing the card they have on file for the $5.95 shipping cost for my 7/17/13 order. Pursuant to the promotional email I received on 7/17/13, there was no shipping cost. How Frederick's can retroactively charge me for a shipping cost that doesn't exist is beyond me. I called and spoke to a customer service representative who was unable to assist me and could not transfer me to a supervisor.”

      Not so cute 

      A week later, Bethany A. in Marshfield, Missouri, wrote us to say: “Ladies, no matter how cute you think items are from Fredericks of Hollywood, do not do business with them!”

      Why not? “If you spend so much and get offered free shipping, it is not free and they could possibly charge you 6 months later.”

      Bethany bought some outfits in April. Everything seemed fine until: “It is now October 2013. Yesterday I received an email saying, since we didn't charge you shipping on your order back in April we will be taking $9.95 out of your account for that within the next 10 business days, sorry for the inconvenience. Seriously?”

      Her attempts to resolve the issue with customer service led nowhere, either:  “I talked to a lady who had no answers for me and was rude about it. She said she didn't know why it took them this long to charge me [for shipping], and refused to take the charge off. BAD BUSINESS! She claimed there was no supervisors or management to talk to and the fee was going to happen and it is non-refundable. She said this was happening to several customers from months before, and the company has decided to now go back and charge for shipping.”

      Hmm. Could that be why we’ve been getting so many recent complaints?

      The next day, Berinda T. of Macon, Georgia told us this story: “I am a regular customer with Fredericks of Hollywood and made 2 purchases (1 in June and 1 in August) in which I received an email advising me of free shipping. I just received an email on 10/7/2013 which states that the company realizes that they did not charge me the shipping and handling fees of 7.95 on the June charge and 5.95 on the August charge and that it would now be applied to my credit card.”

      And, once again: “I contacted customer service and … their response was that the charges was non refundable and could not be refunded.”

      However, they did offer her a ten-dollar-off coupon for the next time she purchased $50 worth of products. She has no intention of using this coupon, though: “I requested a corporate office number and they explained there was not a corporate office to contact. I would not advise ANYONE to shop with them and this ends my shopping with them as well.”

      "Billing error" 

      Next day we heard from Maya F. in Roseville, California. “I placed other 3 months ago on fredericks.com . The company was offering free shipping on all orders …  I received a confirmation number for my order with free shipping.”

      Guess what happened next? “After 3 months, I received an email from the company that there was a billing error, 3 months ago and they will charge shipping costs on the card … However, at the time I placed the order, their website clearly stated: Free shipping on any order, no minimum required! I contacted the customer service at Fredericks of Hollywood and they said there is nothing else they can do….”

      Then we heard from Amanda K. of Hanford, Calif., on Oct. 12. Her complaint is unique: instead of being charged after-the-fact for allegedly free shipping, she says she’s being double-billed for shipping costs she already paid.

      Amanda told us she paid a shipping fee when she order some bras back in April. Then, six months later, “I get an email saying they were going to charge my credit card $9.95, for shipping that was not charged at the time of the order. Fortunately, I keep all of my online shopping receipts. I looked back, and I did pay for the shipping at the time of purchase. So, I am being charged twice for shipping … I warn everyone that also got this email to double check their order. This feels like a scam to me.”

      Two days later we heard from Timothy H, in Silverdale, Wash., who said: “I have received the same email as many people below. My wife made a purchase of 134.74 before tax and shipping. Of course, Frederick’s offers free shipping [for orders] of $50 or more. Now they are wanting to charge me $17.95.”

      And finally, on Oct. 15, we heard from three different Frederick’s customers, all complaining of brand-new charges for items shipped long ago. Edith G. of Carson, Calif. said: “I placed an order on 5/5/2013, and apparently was not charged $7.95 for shipping. I received an email today, which is 10/15/2013, 5 months and 10 days after the purchase. FOH is stating that I should have paid for the shipping and is now going to charge my credit card the $7.95 fee. … Then to top it off they sent me a $10 off coupon for my next order of $50 or more. Why don't you keep the $10 and just waive that charge?”

      Diane C. of Roseville, Calif., called her experience a “shipping cost scam.” Many months ago she received a Frederick’s gift card as a present, and ordered some items online. You know what happened next: “They were having a special for free shipping on your order back in April, so I took advantage of the deal and placed an order. I used my gift-card for payment and even had a remainder balance left over! 6 months later I receive an e-mail from them stating, "Thank you for being a valued customer. It has come to our attention that at the time you placed your order a billing error occurred. The total shipping and handling fee that was indicated on the order confirmation you received after checkout was not charged at the time of shipment. As a result, the remaining shipping and handling fee will now be charged to the credit card you provided at the time of the purchase." They're charging me $9.95 for shipping when I had used a ‘free shipping’ promotion code back when I placed the order…”

      And that’s not all. “They also state in the e-mail that, ‘We will be charging your credit card within the next 10 business days for the shipping and handling fee shown above, as well as any applicable sales tax.’ Why are they charging me for tax again?!?”

      And Curtis H. of Charlotte, North Carolina, told a shorter version of the same basic story: “I too experienced the same shipping scam and I do not care that it was only $15.95. This is deceptive and fraudulent to charge customers shipping 6 months after an order when it was supposed to be free shipping over a certain purchase amount. Please, people, pursue these crooks as far as you can so that they do not keep repeating this scam on other consumers.”

      If you’ve made any Frederick’s of Hollywood mail-order purchases this year, the best advice we can give you is to have your credit card company put a hold on any future Frederick’s charges, as Diane C intends to do: “I'll be contacting their customer service to try and get this straightened out but, reading these other reviews, I can't imagine I'll get too far. I can always contact my bank and try to put a hold on any future Fredrick's charges. Guess I'll be taking my business elsewhere.”

      ---

      (*Did you notice where we mentioned “ten” people with complaints? When we first started writing this article, it said “eight.” We had to revise the article, twice, because two new complaints came in while we wrote this.)

      Did the Fredericks of Hollywood billing computer catch a nasty virus this month? We ask because, after going almost the whole summer and well into f...

      New-car sales off sharply as government shutdown drags on

      Hyundai, Toyota offer relief to furloughed workers but U.S. manufacturers do nothing

      The prolonged government shutdown is taking a big bite out of car sales, auto executives say. Add that to the sharp decrease in home sales and you have a recipe for a major blow to the economy.

      October new-car sales may be off as much as ten percent, according to John Krafcik, CEO of Hyundai's U.S. sales unit, who said potential buyers are being kept away by "anxiety."

      Auto sales had been one of the few bright spots in the economy until September, when sales began to tumble as the shutdown neared.

      Many dealers have taken steps to get furloughed workers into their showrooms but there's not much they can do without credit approval, which is proving very hard to get, even for top-ranking furloughed workers.

      Hyundai is going a step further. It announced earlier this month that it would work with federal workers to defer their loan and lease payments. The company says it has had over 1,000 requests so far.

      Current Hyundai owners will be provided relief from payments for as long as they are out of work. Furloughed employees who wish to buy a car in October will be offered a 90-day payment deferral, Hyundai said in an Oct. 1 press release.

      "That's a much stronger uptake than we thought. It makes us happy. It means we're making a difference, but it does give an indication of just how deep and serious the issues are," said Krafcik said in an interview with Bloomberg News.

      Toyota steps up

       Toyota also says it will provide up to three months of relief for federal employees.

      “The government shutdown has placed an unanticipated financial strain on many individuals and families,” said Al Smith, Toyota Financial Services Group Vice President of Service Operations. “Toyota Financial Services and Lexus Financial Services remain committed to making the lives of our customers easier, so we are pleased to be able to provide some flexibility to our customers affected by this situation.”

      Customers who have been affected by the shutdown and would like to discuss their account options are encouraged to contact TFS or LFS:

      Toyota Financial Services customers may call (800) 874-8822 or contact TFS via email using the Mail Center function after logging into ToyotaFinancial.com.

      Lexus Financial Services customers may call (800) 874-7050 or contact LFS via email using the Mail Center function after logging into LexusFinancial.com.

      The prolonged government shutdown is taking a big bite out of car sales, auto executives say. Add that to the sharp decrease in home sales and you have a r...

      Women sue Suave, saying keratin kit made their hair melt

      Women say Suave offered them as little as $50 to go get a haircut

      This keratin stuff, whatever it is, seems to be the greatest thing since gluten-free bread, as long as it doesn't make your hair fall out or burn your scalp.

      Unfortunately, that's what allegedly happened to hundreds of women who tried Suave Professionals Keratin Infusion 30-Day Smoothing Kit, hoping it would make their hair nice and silky and straight. Instead, they say, it made it melt.

      The "devastating" effects of the treatment were documented by hundreds of women on a public Facebook page, "Suave-Keratin-Infusion-Kit-Destroyed-my-Hair," screen shots from which are included in the complaint.

      The suit names Unilever, Suave's manufacturer, LEK Inc. and Conopco. It claims Unilever used deceptive advertising and failed to warn consumers, even though it knew about the risk of hair loss and scalp burns even before it introduced the product in late 2011.

      Unilever recalled the product in May 2012 and discontinued it but argued nevertheless that it was safe to use.

      One of the lead plaintiffs, Josephine Wells, says her "once long, beautiful, natural curly healthy hair is now dull, fragile and short." She says her hair "is extremely thin and the bald spots caused by the treatment are still visible."

      The suit also charges that women who complained were asked to sign an "unconscionable" release form that protected the company and retailers. In exchange, women got as little as $50 in compensation. The women are being represented by Azra Mehdi in San Francisco.

      Oh, and as for keratin -- it's basically the protein that makes up human skin, hair and nails. As for what it's good for, well, the fungi that cause athlete's foot and ringworm like it, according to Wikipedia.

      WebMD says it's good for straightening frizzy and curly hair but warns that the flat-ironing that is part of the application process can make hair break.

      Facebook photoThis keratin stuff, whatever it is, seems to be the greatest thing since gluten-free bread, as long as it doesn't make your hair fall out...

      You don't have to die to have an estate sale

      It might be a good way to downsize

      Most of the time estate sales are used to liquidate property after someone dies. The heirs take what they want and the rest is sold at auction.

      But an estate sale can be an easy and profitable way to downsize, getting rid of possessions you no longer need or want and allowing you to move into a smaller home for your retirement years. Having a yard sale, on the other hand, takes a lot of work and you are usually left with a lot of stuff when it's over.

      There are other reasons to hold an estate sale. For one thing, an estate sale, advertised locally, will likely bring out people who don't normally go to yard sales. An estate sale suggests a better class of merchandise, if you will.

      You can also bring in a professional to do all of the work. Small, independent businesses specialize in running estate sales. They have experience and know how to maximize the results.

      Best of all, they will look through all the items you want to sell, analyze them and put a price on them. If the company is also an auctioneer, it will know where to start the bidding and how much each item is likely to bring. The company takes a cut of the sale's proceeds – you keep the rest.

      Growing trend

      More people are doing this. Last weekend former Boston Red Sox pitcher Curt Schilling and his wife held an estate sale for that very reason. The children have moved on and they're ready to downsize.

      The Schilling sale was huge, considering they have a seven-bedroom, 8,000-square-foot home. You don't have to live in a mansion in order to hold an estate sale. You do, however, have to have at least some compelling items to bring people out – things like antiques, art, tools or furniture. Your CD collection by itself probably isn't going to be enough.

      The best way to find a company to run your estate sale is to ask around and get a referral or two. These days, the Internet can also come in handy.

      A site like EstateSales.Net allows you to search by state, finding companies in your area that provide this service. 

      When choosing a company to run your sale, compare the commission they charge with the services they offer. At a minimum they should do all the pricing and prepare your items for sale.

      Online selling

      Some companies also offer an online component, allowing shoppers to purchase your items online. Local buyers can pick up the item the day of the sale to avoid shipping charges. The company will not only book the sale and collect the payment but arrange for the shipping, at the buyers' expense.

      When comparing estate sale companies, make sure they are licensed and have the legal authorization to provide the services they offer. If they are also bonded, that's even better. A bond is a form of insurance that guarantees the company will hold up its end of the bargain.

      A reputable company will also provide reference and testimonials from former clients.

      You should also ask how the company plans to publicize your sale. If possible, try to attend one of their sales in your area before you sign a contract.

      Do it yourself?

      Should you try to hold an estate sale yourself? A lot of people do it but it can be hard work, especially if you have never done it before.

      Plenty of websites offer instruction in running a sale but few give you much guidance about whether you should or not. Martin Codina, author of the book “Liquidating An Estate,” says you should consider running your own sale if you have possessions valued at less than $5,000 and are confident that you know what your things are worth.

      You should hire a professional, he says, if there are high-value items needing expert research and marketing or you have items that need extensive organization in order to properly stage a successful sale.

      Most of the time estate sales are used to liquidate property after someone dies. The heirs take what they want and the rest is sold at auction.But an est...

      Hertz customers need to file soon to collect PlatePass payments

      Consumers who paid a toll using PlatePass may be eligible for a partial refund

      Hertz has settled a class-action lawsuit that accused it of overcharging customers who used the company's "PlatePass" electronic toll payment service to pay EZ Pass and similar tolls.

      Postcards have been sent to thousands of consumers who have been identified as potential plaintiffs -- those who rented from Hertz between July 1, 2006 and March 31, 2010 and paid PlatePass charges.

      The suit basically charged that Hertz and its affiliated companies did not adequately disclose the charges that were involved in using PlatePass. The company has established a fund of $11 million to pay claims. Eligible class members may get a refund of 67% of the first PlatePass charge they incurred. 

      Sylvia of Jersey City, N.J., should be sure to fill out a claim form, judging from the complaint she sent us back in July.

      "When I picked up the car no one mentioned the transponder, nor the possibility that transponder charges that would later be billed to my credit card. I went through two tolls in 5 days worth $1.50 and I was charged $25.75."

      Consumers rate Hertz

      Adding insult to injury, Sylvia had taken her own transponder with her but the charges wound up on the Hertz transponder instead.

      Jerome of Chicago was trying to enjoy a pleasant tour of the California wine country but suffered something of a hangover from his Hertz bill.

      "Visiting wine country? Beware of the fine print on your rental agreement with Hertz. They have an arrangement with PlatePass LLC to charge nearly DOUBLE what all other car rental companies are charging for tolls in California including the Golden Gate bridge," he said. "I went over Golden Gate once and was charged over $30 (toll + administrative charges of $4.95/day to a max of $24.95 per rental period). All other car rental companies are only charging $3.95/day to a max of $14.75. 

      What to do

      Consumers who qualify for a refund must file a claim before Nov. 21, 2013. You can do so online or by mail. Instructions and claim forms are available at http://hertzplatepasssettlement.com/. Do not provide personal information to anyone else; this is the only official settlement website.

      Hertz has settled a class-action lawsuit that accused it of overcharging customers who used the company's "PlatePass" electronic toll payment service.Pos...

      Middle-wage jobs: What they are and where they are

      You may have to relocate, but they're out there

      What happened to all those so-called “middle-wage jobs?”

      According to the Federal Reserve, the share of middle-skill or middle-wage jobs in the U.S. workforce dropped from 25% in 1985 to just above 15% today. But, while such positions have been on the decline, a new study from CareerBuilder and Economic Modeling Specialists Intl. (EMSI) shows that there are various fields and states where these positions are actually thriving.

      “Middle-wage positions sustained heavier hits during the recession than other wage groups,” said CareerBuilder CEO Matt Ferguson. “This is further indication of a hollowing effect economists have warned about, where middle-wage jobs are thinning out -- creating a greater concentration of either high-wage or low-wage positions. While this trend has become more pronounced in the last decade -- and has broader implications for the U.S. economy -- there are still areas of manufacturing, healthcare, energy and other fields where employment for middle-wage workers is stable and growing at a healthy pace.”

      CareerBuilder and EMSI define middle-wage jobs as those that pay between $13.84 and $21.13 per hour. Data on top occupations and locations for middle-wage jobs was pulled from EMSI’s extensive labor market database of over 90 national and state employment resources.

      On the rise

      One quarter (25%) of all new jobs added in the U.S. since 2010 fall in the middle-wage range, trailing the share of both high-wage jobs (29%) and low-wage jobs (46%). While automation, off-shoring and other factors are driving the declining share of middle-wage jobs, a variety of occupations in this segment have performed well post-recession. Most of these occupations typically require on-the-job training, work experience, or short-term certificates and degrees that community colleges specialize in.

      • Customer service representatives -- added 132,690 jobs since 2010, up 6%; median hourly earnings:$14.91
      • Heavy/tractor-trailer truck drivers -- added 118,541 jobs since 2010, up 7%; median hourly earnings:$18.41
      • Bookkeeping, accounting and auditing clerks -- added 77,162 jobs since 2010, up 4%; median hourly earnings: $17.02
      • Construction laborers -- added 69,148 jobs since 2010, up 6%; median hourly earnings: $14.60
      • Machinists -- added 49,906 jobs since 2010, up 14%; median hourly earnings: $19.01
      • Welders, cutters, solderers and brazers -- added 38,153 jobs since 2010, up 11%; median hourly earnings: $17.58
      • Automotive service technicians and mechanics -- added 36,229 jobs since 2010, up 5%; median hourly earnings: $16.47
      • Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers and weighers -- added 34,424 jobs since 2010, up 8%; median hourly earnings: $16.81
      • Medical assistants -- added 29,949 jobs since 2010, up 5%; median hourly earnings: $14.35
      • Computer-controlled machine tool operators -- added 21,307 jobs since 2010, up 17%; median hourly earnings: $17.14
      • Oil, gas and mining service unit operators -- added 16,690 jobs since 2010, up 38%; median hourly earnings: $20.16

      Where they are

      Wyoming leads the nation in the percentage of middle-wage jobs added in a state post-recession. Forty-five percent of new jobs that were created in Wyoming since 2010 have been middle-wage, well ahead of other high-performing states: Iowa (37%), North Dakota (36%), and Michigan (35%).

      Texas (25%) and California (23%) have created the largest total number of new middle-wage jobs in the nation, but they’re in the middle of the pack in terms of the share of all new jobs.

      At the bottom, Rhode Island is the only state that’s lost middle-wage jobs over the last few years. Meanwhile, Mississippi (10%) and New York (13%) have the lowest share of new middle-wage jobs among states that have seen job increases.

      What happened to all those so-called “middle-wage jobs?” According to the Federal Reserve, the share of middle-skill or middle-wage jobs in the U.S. workf...

      Organix sounds organic but guess what ...

      Company settles lawsuit that claims its names misled consumers

      If you bought Organix hair- or skin-care products, you could be eligible for refunds of up to $28, thanks to a class-action lawsuit that alleged the brand's name gives the impression that Organix products are made from organic ingredients.

      Consumers who purchased Organix products on or after Oct. 25, 2008, can submit a claim form to receive $4 per product that was purchased, but no more than $28 total.

      Claim forms are available at Haircaresettlement.com and must be submitted by March 17, 2014.

      The company -- Todd Christopher International, Inc., which does business as Vogue International -- denies all the allegations but agreed to settle the suit to avoid the cost of litigaiton.

      Consumers who purchased Organix hair- or skin-care products could receive money as part of a class-action-lawsuit settlement.The lawsuit was filed agai...

      Measles vaccination: earlier is better

      A new study finds there are fewer side effects

      It doesn't make any difference when you have your children immunized against measles -- as long as you have it done, right? Not necessarily.

      A new Kaiser Permanente study published in JAMA Pediatrics says kids receiving measles-containing vaccines at 12-15 months of age have a lower increased risk of fever and seizures than those who receive them at 16-23 months of age.

      The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) recommends a two-dose series of measles-containing vaccines, with the first dose administered at 12-15 months and the second dose at 4-6 years of age. Most children receive their first dose of a measles-containing vaccine between the ages of 12 and 23 months; approximately 85% receive it by 19 months of age. The study found that receiving the first dose by 15 months provides a benefit to children.

      "We found that the magnitude of increased risk of fever and seizures following immunization with measles-containing vaccines during the second year of life depends on age," said Ali Rowhani-Rahbar, MD, MPH, PhD, lead author of the study. "While measles-containing vaccines administered at 12-15 months of age are associated with a small risk of fever and seizures following immunization, delayed administration at 16-23 months of age results in a greater risk of those adverse events."

      In line with CDC

      Previous studies have shown that these vaccines administered to children 12-23 months of age are associated with an increased risk of febrile seizures one to two weeks following immunization. This is the period of time during which the vaccine virus replication is at its peak, potentially causing fever. The resulting fever may cause some children to experience a seizure.

      "Kaiser Permanente's guidelines for measles-containing vaccines are in line with the CDC's recommendations," said Matthew F. Daley, MD, a pediatrician and senior investigator at Kaiser Permanente Colorado's Institute for Health Research. "This study's findings reinforce for parents that these vaccines are safer when children receive them at 12 to 15 months of age."

      It doesn't make any difference when have your children immunized against measles -- as long as you have it done, right? Not necessarily. A new Kaiser Perm...

      IBISWorld sees Halloween spending slowing

      Concerns about the economy appear to be spooking consumers

      An uncertain economic and political environment, the government shutdown and worries about the nation's debt limit are combining to produce a tightening of holiday budgets this year.

      According to IBISWorld, an industry and market research concern, total Halloween spending is anticipated to grow only 3.0% -- to $7.63 billion this year, compared with a 17.8% surge in 2012. Consumers are seen cutting back on discretionary purchases, including costumes and candy, as they gear up for a more frugal Christmas shopping season.

      In its annual Halloween spending survey released in September, the National Retail Federation also projected a slowdown a slowdown in Halloween spending.

      Costumes

      Consumers to spend $2.76 billion on costumes, up just 1.5% from last year when spending on costumes soared 29.5%, thanks to strong consumer sentiment. A little more than half (50.4%) of this category’s revenue will come from adult costumes, while 47.7% will be generated through the sale of children’s costumes and another 1.9% from pet costumes.

      IBISWorld expects most of the growth in this category will be driven by sales of children’s costumes with consumers likely to cut back significantly on spending on their pets this Halloween.

      Fewer adults are expected to celebrate Halloween , the result of worries about the government shutdown. Moreover, those choosing to party hardy are likely to spend less on an outfit than they did last year, in an effort to curb discretionary costs. Thus, only a meager uptick in spending is expected this year.

      Candy

      Candy is the second-largest expenditure category on Halloween. This year, it's expected to total $2.25 billion, an increase of 2.7% over 2012 when candy sales shot up 12.3%. Candy is a small purchase for most households, so spending on it is not expected to be as constrained as costumes. However, concerns may also contribute to weaker demand this year as shoppers turn to more health-conscious treats like apples and sugar-free snacks.

      Decorations

      Although spending on decorations is also slowing, IBISWorld anticipates this category will enjoy the strongest revenue growth this year jumping 6.7% to $2.23 billion. Demand for decorations remains strong compared with the others because they can be a small and inexpensive way to get into the holiday spirit. Moreover, with the prevalence of social networking sites like Pinterest that highlight and encourage do-it-yourself (DIY) projects, consumers will be keener on sprucing up their spaces this year.

      Greeting Cards

      Greeting cards are a highly discretionary purchase, especially on occasions that are not traditionally focused on the family, like Halloween. Shoppers are likely to opt for more decorative and festive expenditures in lieu of greeting cards, causing the category to decline about 5.0% to $385.1 million. Despite the rise in popularity of artisan paper goods, consumers that choose to send cards will likely engage in DIY projects or e-mail and social media greetings instead.

      An uncertain economic and political environment, the government shutdown and worries about the nation's debt limit are combining to produce a tightening of...

      Broadcasters want Supreme Court to shut down Aereo

      The Internet TV service is "transforming the industry," the broadcasters whine

      Once you throw message in a bottle into the water, you have no control over what happens to it. It may sink. It may wash up on an uninhabited island. Or it may be scooped out by someone who finds a way to sell it to millions of people at a profit.

      Should you have any control over the bottle once it leaves your hand? That's the question the over-the-air TV industry wants the Supreme Court to consider.

      Major broadcasters including ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox are appealing a ruling earlier this year by the U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals, which denied their request to shut down Aereo, a streaming video service that is built on a technicality.

      The technicality is this: You can't legally record a TV show and redistribute it to others for profit, because the show is intellectual property covered by copyright laws. Ah, but can you build an equipment rack just crammed with little tiny antennas that pull in the over-the-air signal -- the broadcasters' message in a bottle -- and sell the streaming video of that signal for profit? 

      That's what a start-up called Aereo has been doing with great success. And is driving broadcasters and cable companies insane. Worse than that, it's eating into their profits.

      Threatening the fundamentals

      In their petition to the Supreme Court, the broadcasters say Aereo and the appeals court's decision are "already transforming the industry and threatening the very fundamentals of broadcast television."

      But how can Aereo be threatening the TV industry when all it is doing is making it easier for consumers to get a decent signal without paying $100 or more per month for a cable TV feed from the likes of Comcast?

      After all, in much of the country, it's difficult at best to get a decent over-the-air signal. Many people live too far away from the local station's transmitter. Others live in apartments or condos that don't allow big, bulky TV antennas.

      Community antenna

      Enter Aereo. The company is doing exactly what cable TV did in its early days, back when it was known as Community Antenna TV, or CATV. Back in the day, small towns were desperate for someone to come in and build a CATV system that would haul in signals from the ABC, CBS and NBC stations so taxpayers could watch "I Love Lucy," baseball and other staples of American life.

      Although it does not say so in so many words, Aereo basically is doing the same thing -- simply acting as an antenna for folks who don't have their own.

      Consumers rate Comcast Cable Service

      For a mere $8 per month -- chump change by almost any definition -- Aereo delivers local TV signals in New York, Boston, Atlanta and other major markets. It plans to reach 22 cities by year's end and will unveil an Android mobile app this month.

      You would think that broadcasters would be grateful. Aereo, after all, is helping them get viewers they might not otherwise have. Ah, but not so fast, say the broadcasters. They argue that Aereo is skimming off the handsome royalties that TV stations get from cable systems that carry their signal.

      After all, if a majority of viewers cancel their cable contract and switch to Aereo, the cable systems won't want to pay those fat royalties to the TV stations anymore.  

      "Free TV"

      This, of course, has not always been the case. Within living memory, over-the-air broadcasters called themselves "Free TV." Of course, that was when they were fighting the -- you guessed it -- cable industry.

      Broadcasters back then said it would ruin them financially if those rotten cable systems took their precious signals and bundled them in a cable feed to consumers. They said this with a straight face long enough and loud enough to strong-arm Congress and the courts into letting broadcasters put their hands into cable's pocket and extract some of the money placed there by consumers.

      Now the cable systems that broadcasters said just a few decades ago were killing them are their partners in crime and it's Aereo that's killing them -- killing them! -- by not giving them even more money to produce the crap that we all watch every night.

      Ring of truth?

      It doesn't really sound like a very convincing argument, does it? No, and so far the nation's judges don't think so either. Just last week, a federal judge in Boston refused to grant an injunction to stop Aereo from distributing WCVB-TV's signal, turning aside the station's argument that Aereo puts its "entire business model at risk."

      That, of course, is not a matter for the courts. Business models rise and fall with consumer demand. If consumers stop buying your product, your business model is toast. 

      Despite all their bleating about business models, freedom of information and so on, about all that broadcasters have to stand on legally is their claim that Aereo is violating copyright law, a fairly feeble argument when all Aereo is doing is the same thing as a piece of dipole cable hung out your window could do if your window faces the right way.

      As it stands now, broadcasters -- and the cable industry, for that matter -- just may be on the wrong side of history. Consumer sentiment appears to be tiling towards getting TV the same way consumers get just about everything else now -- over the Internet, at a fraction of the former cost.

      Filing a petition with the U.S. Supreme Court sounds good but it doesn't mean the court will hear the case, or that it will rule in the broadcasters' favor. No one else has, why should they?

      So, while we have no opinion on the matter and would never think of giving investment advice, we would just say that we are examining our threadbare stock portfolio and will be dumping anything that remotely resembles TV broadcasting.

      The guys with the puffy hair had a fun decade or so laughing at the newspaper industry's troubles. Let's say how they like it when it's their turn. 

      Once you throw message in a bottle into the water, you have no control over what happens to it. It may sink. It may wash up on an uninhabited island. Or it...

      What happens if there is no debt deal?

      The government will be running on fumes after Friday. It won't be pretty.

      How much cash do you have on hand? Enough to get you through Friday? If so, you're in about the same shape as the U.S. government. It has about $30 billion cash on hand and could panhandle a few billion more if it had to.

      But the standby borrowing power runs out by the end of the week or so, leaving only that $30 billion and whatever comes into the till thereafter. It's a pretty big till, but it still brings in only about 70 cents of each dollar the feds spend each day.

      So, if there's no deal on raising the debt ceiling, President Obama will have to make some tough decisions by the end of the week. The problem is that such a huge portion of the federal budget consists of what are generally called entitlement and safety net payments -- Social Security, Medicare. Medicaid and programs that help the unemployed, elderly and disabled.

      All those shouting heads on TV who say we have a debt crisis? Just wait and see what it's like to have a no-debt crisis. Like it or not, government spending is a major driver of the economy. 

      The problem is huge. Even if Obama chose to shut down the FBI, FAA, NASA, CIA and assorted other agencies, it wouldn't make much of a dent in the daily deficit. While there are obviously all kinds of scenarios, some analysts say that as soon as Friday, Social Security checks, tax refunds, unemployment benefits and payments to Medicare and Medicaid providers might have to be delayed a few days, the Washington Post reports.

      By November, things get worse. A lot worse. With nearly $60 billion due in the first few days of the month for soldiers' pay, Social Security and veterans benefits, it would take a few weeks for the till to accumulate that much cash -- which in turn would require shutting down or severely curtailing other federal programs that aren't already shut down.

      Default or no default

      Would all of this produce the "default" we keep hearing about it. Yes and no. A default on debt payments is one possible consequence of not raising the debt ceiling. The government would face some very stark choices: avoid default at all costs or continue to support the old, poor and sick.

      It would not be able to do both.

      All of this is bad, but what really scares economists is the effect that failing to make entitlement payments would have. The U.S. economy is, after all, a consumer-driven economy -- meaning that most of the money that is spent on goods and services comes from American consumers. Leaving tens of millions of them without income would devastate the economy, not to mention enraging a few hundred million voters.

      The economy would dive into a steep recession that would quickly become a depression if no relief was forthcoming, many experts think. "Free fall" is the phrase most often heard.

      What to do

      What can consumers do to prepare for an economic cataclysm? The answer depends on your circumstances. Talking to your neighborhood survivalist might be the best bet. Failing that, hording cash and laying in a supply of inexpensive, nutritious food -- think rice and beans -- is the most obvious step along with avoiding any unnecessary expenses.

      Not only those who rely on government checks will be affected. It's estimated that each $1 paid in entitlement benefits generates $1.70 in economic activity. The number is much higher for money paid to federal employees and contractors. This may mean the business that you rely on for your income may quickly be affected. 

      If you have very little in the way of savings, this might be a good time to cancel things like expensive cable TV, smartphone and newspaper subscriptions. You might also want to see if you can cancel or suspend gym memberships, home security systems, housecleaning and other expenses that seem like necessities but will soon become luxuries if your income dries up. 

      You might also want to start stretching out your bill payments to preserve as a much cash as possible. Sometimes our credit rating isn't as important as having a few bucks on hand.

      How much cash do you have on hand? Enough to get you through Friday? If so, you're in about the same shape as the U.S. government. It has about $30 billion...

      Consumers going deeper into debt

      It marks a shift from post-recession borrowing

      Happy days are here again, or so it would appear.

      Since 2008 consumers have been paying down their debt and not taking out so much new debt, in part because banks weren't lending. But there appears to have been an abrupt shift. Consumer debt is on the rise again, and so in fact is corporate borrowing.

      Of course, not all debt is bad. If it's manageable it allows the consumer to increase purchasing power. Those purchases can stimulate the economy.

      In its latest report on consumer credit, the Federal Reserve notes consumer debt increased at an annual rate of 5.5% in August. Revolving credit – things like credit cards – decreased at an annual rate of 1.25% while non-revolving credit – things like car loans -- increased at an annual rate of 8.0%. 

      Student loan debt up 61%

      The Fed's numbers show consumer credit surpassed the $3 trillion level in the second quarter of the year and has yet to show signs of slowing down. It has risen 22% since 2010. But in addition to buying new cars, Americans continue to go into debt to attend college. In the last three years student loan debt is up 61%.

      Credit card debt is among the most expensive there is, with the average rate north of 14%. But since the financial crisis of 2008 revolving debt, which includes credit cards, has been steadily going down.

      For example, in 2008 revolving credit debt totaled just over $1 trillion. By the end of 2012 it had fallen to $845 billion.

      Non-revolving debt has been increasing in the last five years. It stood at $1.6 trillion in 2008 and by August was running at an annual rate of $2.1 trillion.

      Expanded purchasing power

      Both businesses and consumers use credit to purchase things that they otherwise would not be able to buy. A house is a good example. Very few consumers can come up with $200,000 to purchase a house so they take out a mortgage for $160,000 to $180,000.

      On one hand the availability of credit has an inflationary impact. If no one could borrow money to buy a house then houses would have to cost $10,000 to $20,000 or no one could afford them. But if houses were that cheap then builders could only pay their laborers pennies per hour and could only pay pennies for materials. So the lack of credit can have a deflationary impact.

      That's what economic policymakers feared after the 2008 financial crisis when there was little credit available at any price. The fact that both consumers and businesses are able to borrow again – and are doing so – is going to be greeted as good news, as long as the credit is manageable.

      Worries about college loan debt

      Currently, the biggest worry about unmanageable credit is in college loans. That total has now surpassed the $1 trillion mark, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which has voiced concern about how students will be able to repay their debt.

      The agency is not alone. The Institute for College Access and Success estimates the average student will graduate with a loan balance of $26,000. Ten percent are expected to run up more than $40,000 in loans. 

      Some economists worry student loan debt is a giant iceberg, waiting to sink not just students but the U.S. economy. True, the debt makes it hard for young people starting a career to buy cars, homes and other things that can help stimulate the economy.

      But there is also a bigger worry. Since much of the student loan balance is guaranteed by the U.S. government, it's the U.S. taxpayer that takes the hit if these consumers default.

      Happy days are here again, or so it would appear.Since 2008 consumers have been paying down their debt and not taking out so much new debt, in part becau...