Not only has the U.S. housing market come back from the dead, some experts think we are once again in a housing bubble. After plunging four years ago, home prices are rising again.
Some of the strongest gains are coming in the South, Southwest and West, areas where the housing bubble popped with the most damage. In cities like Atlanta, Phoenix, Las Vegas and Sacramento, home prices are up double digits year over year.
One big reason for rising prices is cheap money. Interest rates are almost 50% lower than before the housing collapse. Another reason is a sharp reduction in inventory – there are simply fewer homes for sale. Back when prices were falling, there was a glut of homes on the market – in some cities a year's worth of inventory.
“We now have numerous cities where the supply of homes is just at four months or in some cases, as little as one month,” said Pat Esswein, an editor at Kiplinger, a personal finance publication. It's crazy.”
Days of easy money
Prices are still lower than at their peak but some think those prices were never realistic to begin with. They were fed by demand from consumers who found it extremely easy to borrow money to buy real estate. Often they couldn't afford the homes and the loans offered very low “teaser rates” that adjusted much higher a year or two later, beginning the foreclosure tsunami.
What's unsettling to some industry observers is the fact that, in many markets, there is the same sort of rapid sales action and rising prices that marked the recent housing bubble. Esswein recently surveyed real estate professionals across the country to gauge the current market conditions.
“The advantage now is to the seller,” she said. “They've got leverage because they know that, if they have a nice home and are willing and able to sell, they're probably going to get multiple offers.”
Buyers, meanwhile, have fewer homes to choose from and they may feel under pressure. In some markets real estate investors have come in and snapped up as much property as they could, flipping some houses, converting other to rentals.
Investors are a big reason there are so few houses on the market, especially attractively priced distressed property. Esswein asked Realtors what advice they were giving buyers who wanted their offers to win out in a competitive situation.
Cash is king
One big advantage, she was told, was buy with cash, not a mortgage.
“You just about can't go wrong with it because it alleviates everyone's fear that the prospective buyer won't be able to qualify for a mortgage,” Esswein said. “Cash just greases all wheels.”
Investors tend to pay with cash but increasingly, so do ordinary buyers. They may have sold another house or not want to jump through the hoops of mortgage approval.
Offer what you're willing to pay
Everyone likes to feel they're a negotiator, driving a hard bargain for the best deal. In many housing markets, that's not uncommon. The asking price is $250,000 but you start at $235,000, hoping to end up at $242,000.
“That doesn't work very well when you are competing with other home buyers and they're willing to pay full price,” Esswein said.
Beefing up the earnest money
When you make an offer on a home, you sign a contract and write a check for a deposit. It's often called “earnest money” and, if your contract is accepted, it is deducted from your down payment at settlement.
Making the deposit a large one – say $5,000 instead of $1,000 – signals to the seller you are serious. However, you had better be serious.
“You don't do this idly, because if you back out on a whim, you lose your deposit,” Esswein said.
It almost goes without saying that you get pre-approved for a mortgage before you look at the first house. In fact, most Realtors require that now. They can't afford to waste time showing you a house you won't be able to purchase. And in a competitive market, you can be sure a home seller isn't going to take your offer seriously unless you are pre-approved.
Emotional pitch
Esswein offers up another tip that costs nothing and might give you a slight edge with the seller. When you submit the contract, also include a personal letter to the sellers, telling them why you love the house and the neighborhood. The emotional connection, Esswein says, might give you that extra bit of leverage when most of the offers are about the same.
It seems odd that just four years after the housing bubble popped that we would again be talking about it being a seller's market – and true, it isn't happening everywhere. And Esswein thinks this current boom might not last.
Once investors are no longer able to buy cheap properties they will probably withdraw from the market and sales will moderate. And as long as that happens without a damaging bubble pop, maybe that wouldn't be such a bad thing.