Despite some sell-offs during the recent market turmoil, the price of gold continues to climb. But investors contemplating jumping on the bandwagon at these levels are hearing some cautionary advice from economists.
But wait a minute. Didn't we hear that same advice when gold pushed beyond $1,200 an ounce? Why should investors heed it now, when gold is approaching $1,800?
Some economists agree that gold has been a safe move for people who invested just a few short months ago.
"People believe that gold is a hedge against uncertain times," said Lloyd Thomas, an economics professor at Kansas State University. "In the long run, gold prices have kept pace with inflation. People are flocking to it."
With gains come risks
Thomas said the price might continue to creep higher as economic concern grows, but even so, maintains that the higher gold goes, the riskier it becomes.
From 1960 to the present, Thomas said, gold has gone up an average of 8 percent a year, while inflation rose at less than 4 percent a year. In the last 10 years, gold has gone up 17 percent a year.
"In the long run, gold has gone up," Thomas said. "But in 2000 the price of gold was $300 an ounce. It has gone up six-fold since then, and it might go up higher than what it is right now. It's gone up too fast -- it's a bubble."
Ann Coulson, an instructor for Kansas State University's personal financial planning program, said there are many ways individuals may choose to invest in gold, including jewelry, coins, bullion or gold bars, exchange traded funds, gold mining stocks, gold mutual funds and gold futures and options.
Best ways to buy gold
Jewelry and coins are typically not good choices, she said, and gold bars raise many storage and cost issues. Exchange traded funds give the investor the opportunity to own gold without an actual delivery, and gold mining stocks' value is only partially dependent on the value of gold. Diversified investment -- like gold mutual funds -- often offer the most protection, Coulson said.
Thomas compared his gold predictions to the housing market. People were lulled into thinking housing prices could never fall, but they fell more than 30 percent in most American cities.
"The same thing could happen to gold; it's not risk-free," he said. "In the last 10 years it's gone up 17 percent a year, but the price of things we purchase has only gone up three percent a year. That's unsustainable. It's my own opinion that gold prices will collapse -- I just don't know when."
Although the price of gold is high, it may be a good investment as the price continues to climb -- for now. Unlike investing in stocks or bonds, Coulson said, there is no income associated with gold. Money is made from buying low and selling high. She agreed that the price is destined to fall at some point.
Diversify
"Gold as a piece of a diversified portfolio might make sense, but if an investor invests solely in gold, that is a great risk," she said. "It is not a safe investment unless you are buying gold bars and burying them in your backyard, and even that is not safe because the price is dictated by what buyers are willing to pay for gold."
Since gold only makes money for an investor if they buy low and sell high, it makes sense to no gold's price history, and have an idea where it's going. Since there are no profits or earnings to consider, an investor can only try to guess how much more uncertainty and turmoil – the main driver for gold prices – lie ahead.
Below are the average price of gold, per ounce, over the last 40 years, according to the World Gold Council:
- 1971 – 40.62
- 1976 – 124.74
- 1981 – 480
- 1986 – 368
- 1991 – 362.11
- 1996 – 387.81
- 2001 – 271.04
- 2006 – 603.48
- 2010 – 1224.53
How high will go gold in the future? No one can say for sure. Some analysts point out that the price of gold hit a record $850 an ounce in 1980. Adjusted for inflation, that price in 2011 dollars would be $2,500. But investors betting on hitting that price could simply be rolling the dice.
"When investors become more confident in the economy, gold will be less valuable as an investment," Coulson said. "I agree with Warren Buffett: gold has no utility, so as a long-term investment it's not a good choice."
Some advice from economists when it comes to buying gold...