Current Events in March 2025

In brief ...

• 💊 A new international clinical trial found that oral semaglutide reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events by 14% in people with type 2 diabetes and heart or kidney disease.

• ❤️ The once-daily pill targets a vulnerable population prone to heart attacks, strokes, and related complications, showing similar benefits to its injectable counterpart.

• 🧬 The findings, presented at the American College of Cardiology’s annual meeting, highlight a major step forward in accessible diabetes and heart disease care.

Details

A new clinical trial led by researchers at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine has revealed that the oral form of semaglutide (GLP-1) significantly reduces the risk of heart attacks and strokes in people with type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and chronic kidney disease.

“Heart attacks and strokes are among the most common and devastating complications of diabetes,” said co-lead investigator Dr. John Buse, Director of the UNC Diabetes Care Center. “Semaglutide has been a mainstay of our efforts to reduce these outcomes. Having an oral option is a big advance.”

9,650 participants

The trial, known as the SOUL study, enrolled 9,650 participants from around the world. All had pre-existing cardiovascular conditions or chronic kidney disease, and were already receiving standard treatments to manage blood sugar and reduce heart risk. Half received a placebo, while the other half took a 14mg oral dose of semaglutide daily.

Published in the New England Journal of Medicine and presented at the American College of Cardiology’s Annual Scientific Session, the findings show that patients taking oral semaglutide were 14% less likely to experience major cardiovascular events, with the biggest reduction seen in nonfatal heart attacks.

Semaglutide, available in both injectable and oral forms, has drawn recent attention not only for its blood sugar-lowering power, but also for weight loss and even reduction in alcohol cravings. Its cardiovascular benefits have previously been confirmed in injectable form, but this is the first large-scale confirmation that the oral version delivers similar heart protection.

“This reinforces the idea that GLP-1 medications don’t just help with blood sugar and weight,” said Dr. Matthew Cavender, co-lead investigator and interventional cardiologist at UNC. “They could truly reshape how we manage cardiovascular risk in diabetes.”

The trial was sponsored by Novo Nordisk, the pharmaceutical company that manufactures semaglutide under brand names like Ozempic and Rybelsus.

While the results are promising, researchers note that further studies will help clarify whether the oral or injectable form is more effective — and which patients might benefit most from each.

Economists at Goldman Sachs have issued a more pessimistic forecast for the U.S. economy, saying the chances of a recession in the U.S. are now 35%. They attribute the rise to Trump administration tariffs, which they say will slow economic growth.

In a note to clients over the weekend, Goldman economists predicted the average tariff on all goods imported into the U.S. will be 15%, adding to the cost to merchants, with the expectation that most of the increase will be passed along to consumers.

As a result, the bank now predicts the end-of-year inflation rate will be 3.5%, up from 2.8%  in February, and the unemployment rate will rise to 4.5% from 4.1%.

With higher prices caused by tariffs, economists expect consumers will buy fewer products. Profit margins will shrink, businesses will hire fewer new employees and layoffs may increase.

A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. The fourth quarter of 2024 saw positive growth, so all eyes will be on the announcement of first quarter 2025 growth, sometime in late April or early May.

What happens in a recession?

In a recession, consumers prioritize spending on essential goods and services like food, healthcare and the utility bill. They are less likely to spend on things like entertainment and travel.

Large expenditures would likely take the biggest hit. With an anticipated 25% tariff on imported cars and trucks, vehicle sales could slow significantly, impacting employment for autoworkers and car dealer employees.

Retirees’ 401(k) accounts could also take a significant hit. Goldman analysts said they expect the S&P 500 to suffer a 5% decline over the next three months, though they said it should rebound late in the year.

Since the turn of the century, the U.S. has suffered two recessions. The Great Recession lasted from 2007 to 2009, caused by the collapse of the U.S. housing market.

The economy most recently suffered a short but sharp recession that occurred at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic.