Black Friday isn't always the cheapest: Roughly one-third of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals tracked in a 2025 study had been available for less earlier in the season.
Some products are riskier: About 61% of luggage deals and 50% of microwave deals had previously been cheaper.
Start tracking prices now: A little research before the holiday sales begin could save you hundreds.
Black Friday might be the biggest shopping event of the year, but here's something worth remembering: That incredible deal you're eyeing might have been cheaper three weeks ago.
And apparently, it happens quite a bit.
A study from price-tracking company Visualping monitored more than 2,600 products during the 2025 holiday shopping season and found that roughly one-third of Black Friday and Cyber Monday deals had actually been available for less earlier in the season.
And we're not talking about a few pennies.
On average, those deals were priced 37% higher than the lowest prices Visualping recorded between October 1 and Cyber Monday.
With Black Friday 2026 coming up on November 27, the findings are a good reminder that waiting until the biggest shopping day of the year doesn't necessarily guarantee the lowest price.
Some Black Friday deals are much worse than others
One of the most interesting findings was how dramatically the results varied depending on what shoppers were buying.
Here's the percentage of deals that had been cheaper earlier in the season, according to Visualping:
Luggage: 61% had been available for less before Black Friday or Cyber Monday
Microwaves: 50% had previously been cheaper
Video game consoles: 14% had been available at lower prices
Backpacks: 4% had previously been cheaper, making them one of the better categories in the study
That doesn't mean you should automatically skip Black Friday luggage or microwave deals. But it does suggest shoppers should be especially careful about assuming those advertised discounts are the best they'll find.
Even expensive electronics aren't immune. Visualping highlighted a MacBook Air advertised for $1,439.99 around Black Friday that had been available for $1,337.46 earlier in November.
That's more than $100 shoppers could have saved by buying earlier!
3 ways to avoid overpaying this Black Friday
The good news is that you don't have to spend hours researching every purchase to avoid getting burned.
Here are three simple strategies to put to work right now.
Start tracking prices today, not on Black Friday. Make a list of five or ten products you're most interested in buying this holiday season. Then use a price-tracking tool like CamelCamelCamel for Amazon products, or Keepa or Capital One Shopping to monitor price changes. By using these sites you'll get a much better feel for what something normally costs and whether that Black Friday price is actually worth getting excited about.
Ignore the percentage-off sign. A retailer advertising 40% off doesn't necessarily mean you're getting the lowest price. Instead, focus on the actual selling price and compare it against the product's recent price history. For example, a $200 item marked down to $140 sounds like a great deal. But if it was selling for $115 earlier this month, that 40% discount suddenly doesn't look so impressive.
Set a target price and be willing to buy early. If you've been watching a $300 appliance and it drops to $199 in early November, don't automatically wait until Black Friday hoping it'll fall further. Decide ahead of time what price would make you comfortable buying, then pull the trigger only when it reaches that number. Just make sure the retailer has a reasonable return policy in case an even better deal comes along.