Only 54% of consumers trust Black Friday discounts, while one in five actively distrusts advertised sale prices, according to a new international survey.
Shoppers are suffering from promotion fatigue, with some planning to spend less or skip holiday sales because they believe discounts are available year-round.
Artificial intelligence is changing holiday shopping, with 56% of consumers using or planning to use AI to compare prices and find bargains.
Amazon has Prime Day promotions in July and October, with Walmart and Target also launching sales promotions of their own. But these constant sales may be having an unintended effect on consumers.
By the time Black Friday finally arrives, new research suggests that a growing number of consumers aren't convinced the advertised bargains are as good as retailers claim.
A new survey from Boston Consulting Group (BCG) finds that just 54% of consumers trust that advertised Black Friday prices are genuinely lower than normal. One in five shoppers actively distrusts the discounts. And they may be right.
As ConsumerAffairs recently reported, a recent study found a third of 2025’s Black Friday sales items were cheaper before the holiday shopping kickoff.
The BCG findings suggest retailers face a new challenge heading into the 2026 holiday shopping season: convincing consumers that their sales are worth the money.
The research, released November 4, is based on a survey of 10,220 consumers in 10 countries, including the United States. It is BCG's sixth annual study of year-end shopping events.
"Shoppers no longer take Black Friday discounts at face value," said Nate Shenck, a BCG managing director and senior partner who coauthored the report.
The skepticism comes as retailers increasingly promote holiday discounts weeks before Black Friday, which falls on November 27 this year.
Consumers are getting tired of constant sales
One of the survey's most significant findings is growing promotion fatigue — the feeling that retailers are constantly advertising sales, making it difficult to determine when prices are actually lowest.
Among consumers planning to reduce spending or skip year-end sales, 22% said they believe deals are available all the time anyway.
Interestingly, shoppers aren't necessarily demanding bigger discounts.
The minimum markdown consumers consider a good deal has actually declined slightly, from 32% in 2025 to about 30% this year.
That suggests consumers may be more concerned about whether a discount is genuine than how large the advertised percentage happens to be.
The skepticism varies by country. BCG's full report found that about two-thirds of American consumers trust advertised discounts, compared with roughly one-third in several European markets.
What sales can consumers trust?
The survey also examined which retail practices make shoppers more likely to believe they're getting a legitimate bargain.
Retailer reputation and money-back guarantees were the strongest trust builders, each earning a net trust score of 65%.
Verified customer reviews followed at 59%, while clear comparisons between regular and sale prices scored 58%.
Some familiar marketing tactics were much less effective. Messages warning that an item is almost sold out or that an offer is about to expire received a net trust score of just 8%.
AI-generated review summaries scored 4%, and influencer recommendations ranked last at 3%.
The scores measure the percentage of consumers whose trust increased minus the percentage whose trust decreased. They do not represent the percentage of shoppers who trust each tactic.
The results suggest shoppers increasingly value evidence over advertising pressure.
AI is becoming a holiday shopping assistant
Another major finding is the growing role of artificial intelligence in shopping decisions.
BCG found that 56% of consumers are using or planning to use AI in their shopping, an eight-percentage-point increase from 2025.
Among AI users, 86% said the technology was helpful, while 78% said it increased their likelihood of completing a purchase.
Consumers were especially interested in using AI to compare prices among retailers and evaluate product features.
Meanwhile, social media is losing some of its influence. The percentage of consumers using social platforms for shopping inspiration declined nine percentage points to 46%.
The findings suggest that consumers increasingly want technology to help them determine whether a deal is worthwhile, rather than simply tell them what to buy.
How to make sure a Black Friday bargain is real
The survey offers a reminder that an advertised discount doesn't necessarily mean a product is selling for its lowest price.
Consumers can take several steps to avoid being misled during the holiday shopping season:
Check price histories. Use price-tracking services to determine whether an item's price was lower earlier in the year.
Compare retailers. Don't assume a product advertised as 40% off is cheaper than the same item at a competing store.
Look beyond the percentage discount. Focus on the final price rather than the claimed savings.
Read verified customer reviews. Pay particular attention to comments about product quality and whether the item matches its description.
Check return policies. A deeply discounted product may be less attractive if returns are difficult or expensive.
Be skeptical of countdown clocks. Warnings that a deal expires in minutes can create pressure to buy without comparing prices.
Use AI as a research tool, but verify its findings. AI-generated price comparisons can be useful, but prices and product availability should be confirmed directly with retailers.
Despite the growing skepticism, Black Friday remains a major shopping event. BCG's broader research found that 95% of surveyed consumers were aware of Black Friday, and 81% of those familiar with the event intended to shop.
For retailers, the message is that simply advertising a large markdown may no longer be enough.
For consumers, the lesson is equally important: The best Black Friday deal isn't necessarily the one with the biggest advertised discount. It's the one offering the lowest verified price on something they actually need.