A new study conducted by researchers from the University of Massachusetts Amherst explored the link between youth vaping and smoking into adulthood.
It’s been long debated that one habit impacts the other – kids who start vaping at a young age are more likely to be adults that smoke. However, according to these findings, this isn’t likely to be the case.
“One of the substantial concerns from some members of the public health community about vaping is that it might cause more young people to smoke,” researcher Jamie Hartmann-Boyce said in a news release. “Some — but not all — evidence from our study possibly suggests the opposite — that vaping may contribute to declines in youth smoking, particularly in the U.S.”
The research
To understand the link between youth vaping and adult smoking, the researchers analyzed data from 123 previous studies that included data on over four million people in the U.S., Canada, and western Europe. All of the participants were under the age of 29, and their e-cigarette use was compared with population data on smoking.
“The studies themselves are not straightforward study designs, because you can’t randomize kids to vape or not vape — it just wouldn’t be ethical,” Hartmann-Boyce said. “But it means that there are so many different ways to interpret the findings of these studies.”
The findings
So, what did the analysis show? Ultimately, the findings were mixed.
However, the researchers did find that over 20 of the larger studies came to a similar conclusion: as vaping among young people increased, smoking rates went down. Additionally, when rules were put into place that restricted vaping, smoking rates were likely to be higher.
The researchers explained that at the most individual level, those who vape are more likely to go on to become smokers. However, none of their data can prove the causal relationship between these two factors.
Instead, the team encourages consumers to look at population-level data. Smoking levels have been steadily declining over the years, which indicates that vaping isn’t likely to play a role in subsequent smoking.
“There’s enough non-smoking kids who start vaping in the U.S. that if vaping was in a consistent and widespread way causing kids to start smoking, we would start seeing that in our population-level smoking data,” Hartmann-Boyce said. “And we haven’t seen that at all.
“The smoking rates among kids have declined steeply, and whether or not that’s due to vaping or something else is up in the air. But it’s difficult to argue that — in the U.S. population — youth vaping is en masse causing kids to smoke. The data doesn’t support that so far.”