Current Events in January 2015

Here's possible good news for Facebook users annoyed by the large number of hoax articles and fake copyright noticescluttering more desirable content out of their News Feeds: the company announced yesterday that it's made changes in hopes of reducing the number of hoaxes people see in their feeds.

Facebook also added an option to let people flag stories as being “purposefully fake or deceitful news, [or] a hoax disproved by a reputable source,” similar to the already existing system to let people flag spam.

Facebook's “News Feed FYI” from Jan. 20 says that “[t]oday’s update to News Feed reduces the distribution of posts that people have reported as hoaxes and adds an annotation to posts that have received many of these types of reports to warn others on Facebook.” However, “We are not removing stories people report as false and we are not reviewing content and making a determination on its accuracy.”

Last May, Facebook faced harsh criticism over the fake news stories appearing on people's News Feed as “Related Articles.” For example, readers who clicked on a then-current news story about Michelle Obama talking to a 10-year-old with an unemployed father were also offered “Related Articles” alleging that a Secret Service officer found the Obamas having “S*X in Oval Office.”

At the time, an unnamed Facebook spokesperson blamed the related-articles problem on “algorithms.”

Clickbait headlines

In August, when Facebook said it would crack down on those annoying clickbait headlines, the company admitted its main motivation for the crackdown is that clickbait links on people's News Feeds crowded out links they actually wanted to see, thus increasing the likelihood that people would spend less time on Facebook, or even stay away altogether.

And that's the primary reason Facebook is now seeking to crack down on hoaxes in people's feeds – because most people find those hoaxes annoying, and too much annoying content will crowd out content people actually might like.

But how, exactly, does Facebook identify what a hoax is?

Hoaxes are a form of News Feed spam that includes scams (“Click here to win a lifetime supply of coffee”), or deliberately false or misleading news stories (“Man sees dinosaur on hike in Utah”). People often share these hoaxes and later decide to delete their original posts after they realize they have been tricked. These types of posts also tend to receive lots of comments from friends letting people know this is a hoax, and comments containing links to hoax-busting websites. In fact, our testing found people are two times more likely to delete these types of posts after receiving such a comment from a friend.

So, presumably, Facebook will make changes to the algorithms determining which articles appear on News Feeds. The algorithms are proprietary, so nobody outside of a few highly placed people within Facebook knows what they are, but in the past, Facebook has freely admitted that popularity plays a large part in that: the more people who post, share or like an article, the more likely that article is to appear in other people's News Feeds.

Now, those algorithms will also take note when large numbers of people who shared or posted an article deleted it later – or if large numbers of people see the post and make comments including word such as “hoax,” or link to hoax-debunking sites.

If that happens, the posts won't disappear entirely but they will appear under a small warning message letting people know that many others on Facebook had flagged it as a possible hoax. Websites that are clearly labeled “satirical,” such as The Onion, aren't supposed to be affected by the changes.

It was with great fanfare that Amazon began selling its own brand of diapers last month. But now the Elements line of diapers is being disposed of as unceremoniously as, well, a used diaper.

"Based on early customer feedback, we are making some design improvements to the diaper. In the meantime, Amazon Elements Soft & Cozy Diapers are no longer available, and we've stopped your subscription," Amazon said in an email to customers who'd signed up for regular diaper shipments, Gigaom reported.

Consumers weren't exactly singing the praises of the new diapers. Some reviews on Amazon's own site panned them for being saggy.

To get the diapers, parents had to be members of Amazon's Prime program, the $99-per-year membership that includes free videos, free two-day shipping and other perks.

As part of its pitch for the diapers, Amazon had said they and other Elements products would be more "transparent" -- meaning that the packaging would include information about the used in making the products, as well as where they're made. Diaper brands in the past have been hit by accusations that their products gave babies rashes and other maladies.  

“Our obsession with customers and drive to continuously innovate on their behalf has led us to create Amazon Elements. The two things customers told us they want are premium products that meet their high standards, and access to information so they can make informed decisions, Amazon Elements offers both,” said Sunny Jain, Amazon.com Consumables Vice President.

Applications for mortgages hit their highest levels in more than 6 months last week, thanks to a big jump in refinancings.

Data from the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey show applications shot up 14.2% during the week ending January 16.

The Refinance Index soared 22% percent from the previous week, sending that sector's share of mortgage activity to 74% of total applications -- the highest level since May 2013.

The increase, according to MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni, “was largely due to mortgage rates dropping to their lowest level since May 2013. However, the recent reduction in FHA mortgage insurance premiums also played a role: FHA refinance applications increased 57% last week. Even with this increase, refinances made up only 48% of FHA volume, compared to 73% for VA, and 77% for conventional loans.”

Conventional purchase applications were down about 3% for the week on a seasonally adjusted basis, but up 5% relative to last year at this time. FHA purchase applications were down 1% for the week on a seasonally adjusted basis.

Loan activity

MBA now provides additional data regarding the composition and level of application activity for government loan programs, including breakouts for FHA, VA, and USDA loans.

Conventional refinance applications increased 21% from the previous week, while government refinances increased 29%, driven by a 57% surge in applications for FHA loans, which also boosted the FHA share of refinance applications to 5.2% from 4.1% the prior week.

The FHA share of total applications increased to 8.0%, the VA share fell to 9.4% and USDA share decreased to 0.6%.

Contract interest rates

• The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages (FRMs) with conforming loan balances ($417,000 or less) dropped 9 basis points -- from 3.89% to 3.80%, the lowest level since May 2013, with points increasing to 0.29 from 0.23 (including the origination fee) for 80% loan-to-value ratio (LTV) loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
• The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRMs with jumbo loan balances (greater than $417,000) dipped to 3.86%, the lowest level since May 2013, from 3.88%, with points unchanged at 0.23 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
• The average contract interest rate for 30-year FRMs backed by the FHA fell 5 basis points to 3.66% percent, the lowest level since May 2013, with points rising to 0.15 from -0.05 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate increased from last week.
• The average contract interest rate for 15-year FRMs decreased to 3.10%, the lowest level since May 2013, from 3.16%, with points decreasing to 0.29 from 0.30 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.
• The average contract interest rate for 5/1 ARMs fell 7 basis points to 2.87%, the lowest level since June 2013, with points decreasing to 0.41 from 0.46 (including the origination fee) for 80% LTV loans. The effective rate decreased from last week.

The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications.

New home construction bounced back in December from the decline it posted the previous month.

In a joint announcement, the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said privately-owned housing starts rose 4.4% last month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,089,000. At the same time, the November figure was revised higher to show a rate of 1,043,000 instead of the 1,028,000 reported last month.

The advance in December was led by a 7.2% increase in single-family housing starts, while the rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 339,000.

All together, construction was started on an estimated 1,005,800 homes in 2014 up 8.8% from the year before.

Building permits

Authorization for construct of new homes, however, tumbled last month.

Building permits slipped 1.9% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,032,000.

Single-family authorizations rose 4.5%, while permits for buildings with 5 units or more were at a rate of 338,000.

The complete report is available on the Commerce Department website.

Home building forecast

Separately, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is looking for good things in the year ahead.

“The signs point to a more robust year for housing," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Household balance sheets are returning to normal levels, home owners' equity is increasing and significant pent-up demand is rising. More than 7 million existing home sales were postponed or lost during the downturn; and while some are lost forever, we should see some catch-up."

NAHB expects single-family production to rise 26% this year to 804,000 units. "While a good beginning, this is still well below a normal level of 1.3 to 1.4 million single-family starts," Crowe said.

On the multifamily front, the group projects 358,000 starts -- up 2% from 352,000 last year.

The sale of new single-family homes is expected to hit 564,000 this year, a 29.3% increase from last year's 436,000 sales.

Oma’s Pride of Avon, Conn., is recalling Purr-Complete Feline Poultry Meal.

The product may be contaminated with Salmonella.

There have been no illnesses reported to date.

The recalled product was distributed through retail stores, distributors, and directly to consumers nationwide.

Purr-Complete Feline Poultry Meal is sold frozen in clear 12-oz. (UPC: 8 79384 00017 9) and 2-lb. (UPC: 8 79384 00018 6) plastic packaging under the Oma’s Pride brand as a poultry blend with code #1524.

It was manufactured on September 12, 2014, with a use by recommended date of September 12, 2015.

Consumers who have purchased the recalled product should return it to the place of purchase for a full refund.

Consumers with questions may contact Oma’s Pride Monday through Friday, 9:00am – 4:30pm, at 1-800-678-6627.

Queseria Bendita of Yakima, Wash., is recalling all lots of Panela, Queso Fresco, Requeson, Cotija fresh soft cheese products and sour cream to include those with best by dates up to 4/16/2015.

The products may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

To date, there are a total of 3 cases of Listeria monocytogenes infections linked to consumption of soft cheese produced by Queseria Bendita, including 2 hospitalizations and 1 death.

The recalled products were distributed to Hispanic grocery stores in Washington and Oregon; the firm also sold products from its on-site store in Yakima, Wash.

The products are packaged with clear plastic wrapper or plastic tub, and are stamp coded with the best by date up to 4/16/2015. They are refrigerated and have a shelf life of up to 90 days.

The following products are being recalled:

Consumers and retailers should remove the recalled products from their shelves and destroy.

Consumers with questions may call the firm at 509-961-8949 between 8 am-4 pm PST.

Southeast Toyota Distributors (SET) is recalling 1,140 model year 2013-2015 Toyota Rav4 vehicles manufactured June 1, 2013, to December 29, 2014, and equipped with an accessory trailer light module.

The software within the module may incorrectly detect an electrical short and preventively turn off the electrical current and the trailer lights, increasing the risk of a crash.

SET will notify owners, and dealers will replace the trailer light module with a new unit with corrected software, free of charge. The recall is expected to begin February 23, 2015.

Owners may contact SET customer service at 1-866-405-4226. SET's number for this recall is SET-15A.

Inventure Foods of Phoenix, Ariz., is recalling its Rader Farms Fresh Start Smoothie Blend, Fresh Start Sunrise Refresh Fusion and Fresh Start Daily Power Fusion.

The products may be contaminated with Listeria monocytogenes.

There are no known illnesses linked to consumption of these products to date.

Fresh Start Smoothie Blend is distributed in 48-oz. (3-lb.) packages at Costco in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and in Alberta, British Columbia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, Canada.

The Fresh Start Sunrise Refresh Fusion and Fresh Start Daily Power Fusion products are distributed in 35-oz. packages at Walmart in Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Texas, Utah, Washington and Wyoming.

The packages carry the Rader Farms and Fresh Start logos and are sold in the frozen fruit aisle of the store. The following products are being recalled:

Consumers who have purchased the above products should return them to the place of purchase for a full refund.

Consumers with questions may contact Inventure Foods customer service department at 866-890-1004, Mon.-Fri., 8 a.m.-4 p.m. PST, 0r by email at info@inventurefoods.com.

While 2014 was a pretty dull year for real estate, 2015 may see more action – particularly from consumers who have been content, until now, to rent.

There are still obstacles to entering the housing market for the first time – gathering a down payment and closing costs and presenting a good credit score to name two – but there are signs things are beginning to swing around in buyers' favor.

Historically low mortgage rates are still falling. The average fixed-rate 30-year mortgage is now well below 4%.

It should be no surprise that the first full week of 2015 saw a surge in applications for mortgages. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey applications shot up 49.1% during the week ending January 9.

Just 3% down payment

Policymakers are also providing incentives. Fannie Mae recently introduced a 97% loan program targeted to first time home buyers, making it easier to come up with a down payment.

Then there is the matter of economics. The employment picture has strengthened, providing more potential buyers with stable income and increasing their confidence to take on a long-term commitment.

And perhaps the clincher – the rent consumers are paying for their housing continues to go up.

"With rents now rising at a 7-year high, historically low rates and moderating price growth are likely to entice more buyers to enter the market in upcoming months," Lawrence Yun, chief economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), noted last month.

Yun says Realtors are still fighting the misconception that a large down payment is needed in order to buy a home, but as word spreads about low down payment loan programs, that will begin to change.

More people seeking advice

Another indication that more consumers are considering a home purchase comes from the National Foundation for Credit Counseling (NFCC). The group says its members report a surge in consumers seeking advice about purchasing a home.

It says more than 73,000 consumers sought housing counseling in 2014, the largest volume since the housing crash.

“Seeing that more people are realizing the value of housing counseling is a sign that the next wave of home buyers will be better prepared to preserve home ownership” said Bruce McClary, spokesperson for the NFCC.

For the housing market, it means that a new wave of buyers may be ready to shop for a home, or begin an aggressive savings program to gather up the down payment. While that's good news for Realtors, NFCC is concerned that too many first time buyers may be headed into the market with too little information.

It points to a recent Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) survey that revealed 47% of home buyers are not comparing lenders for the best rate and lowest fees. The group says those who compare multiple offers are likely to save more than those who only worked with a single lender.

The NFCC recommends seeking the advice of a nonprofit housing counselor in order to learn about every aspect of purchasing and maintaining ownership before making any financial commitment.

Builder confidence in the market for newly-built single-family homes remains fairly steady in January.

The latest National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) /Wells Fargo Housing Market Index slipped 1 point -- to 57, marking the third straight month that the index has hovered in the upper 50s range.

"After 7 months above the key 50 benchmark, builder sentiment is reflecting the gradual improvement that is occurring in many markets throughout the nation," said NAHB Chairman Kevin Kelly, a builder and developer from Wilmington, Del.

How they see it

The Index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sales expectations for the next 6 months as "good," "fair" or "poor." The monthly survey also asks builders to rate traffic of prospective buyers as "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low." Scores from each component are then used to calculate a seasonally adjusted index where any number over 50 indicates that more builders view conditions as good than poor.

"January's HMI reading is in line with our forecast as we head into the new year," said NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe. "Steady economic growth, rising consumer confidence and a growing labor market will help the housing market continue to move forward in 2015."

The HMI component gauging current sales conditions remained at 62 in January while the index measuring expectations for future sales dropped 4 points to 60 and the component gauging traffic of prospective buyers fell 2 points to 44.

Looking at the three-month moving averages for regional HMI scores, the West rose by 4 points to 66, the Midwest registered a 3-point gain to 57 and the Northeast was up 2 points to 47. The South dropped 2 points to 58.

Sentry Food Solutions of Tucker, Ga., is recalling approximately 14,130 pounds of chicken and beef products.

The products may contain peanuts, known allergens, which are not declared on the product label.

There are no reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The following items,produced on various dates between Nov. 20, 2014, and Jan. 7, 2015, are being recalled:

• 7,770 lbs. - 3 bags of 5 lbs. in 15 lb. cases of “SABOR LATINO PEPPER STEAK” with packaging codes “11/24/15, 11/26/15, 12/3/15, 12/9/15, 12/12/15, 12/16/15, 1/6/15 or 1/7/16”
• 2,160 lbs. - 3 bags of 5 lbs. in 15 lb. cases of “SABOR LATINO BEEF & POTATO STEW” with packaging codes “11/24/15, 12/5/15 or 12/10/15”
• 2,160 lbs. - 3 bags of 5 lbs. in 15 lb. cases of “SABOR LATINO CHICKEN FRICASSEE” with packaging codes “11/20/15, 11/26/15, 12/4/15, 12/9/15 or 1/6/16”
• 2,040 lbs. - 3 bags of 5 lbs. in 15 lb. cases of “SABOR LATINO BEEF PICADILLO” with packaging codes “11/24/15 or 12/12/15”

The above products bear the establishment number “P-19031” or Est. 19031” inside the USDA mark of inspection and were produced for institutional use in Florida.

Consumers with questions may contact Quality Assurance Manager Luci de Jesus at 470-268-8440, Ext. 13.  

La Guadalupana Wholesale of Chicago, Ill., is recalling approximately 8,856 pounds of chicken tamales.

The products were not produced under a fully implemented Ready-To-Eat (RTE) Hazard Analysis & Critical Control Points (HACCP) plan; a Listeria monocytogenes (Lm) program; and a hazard analysis.

There are no reports of illness due to consumption of these products.

The products subject to recall include:

• 2 packs of 6 tamales in each vacuum-packed bag of “LA GUADALUPANA CHICKEN TAMALES”

The products bear the establishment number “P-21094” inside the USDA mark of inspection with packaging dates from Nov. 19, 2014 through Jan. 4, 2015 on the label, and were distributed for retail sale in Chicago, Ill..

The products were produced from Dec. 1, 2014, through Jan. 5, 2015, and then packaged using a Cryovac machine by a co-packer of La Guadalupana Wholesale from Nov.19, 2014, through Jan. 2, 2015.

The firm's co-packer did not conduct a hazard analysis to determine the food safety hazards reasonably likely to occur in the cryovacing process and did not identify the preventive measures the establishment could apply to control those hazards.

The chicken tamales are a RTE product and fall within the Fully Cooked Not Shelf Stable category. As such, their production requires an Lm program. The product is also processed by means of physical handling and packaging, thus further requiring a HACCP plan.

Consumers with questions about the recall may contact company General Manager Alejandro Castro at at 1-866-954-3654 or by email at info@senortamale.com.

Food Club, the importer of record, of Key Biscayne, Fla., is recalling approximately 3,233 pounds of pork products.

The products were produced in Spain and were not presented at the U.S. point of entry for inspection. Without the benefit of full inspection, a possibility of adverse health consequences exists.

There are no reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The following Sociedad Cooperativa Valle de Los Pedroches items are subject to recall:

• Whole hams of “COVAP JAMÓN DE BELLOTA 100% IBERICO BONE IN DRY CURED ACORN FED IBERICO PORK HAM” and bearing lot numbers “13314, 14124, 14444 or 14503” on the packaging labels.
• 2.5-oz. individually wrapped packages of “COVAP JAMÓN DE BELLOTA DRY CURED ACORN FED IBERICO SLICED HAM” and bearing lot numbers “13323, 13472, 14105, 14344, 14423 or 14484” on the packaging labels.

The products were included in 6 different shipments bearing establishment number “Spain 29” inside the Spain mark of inspection and have “Sell-by” dates from June 19, 2014 through Dec. 10, 2015. These products were shipped to customers in California via the Internet.

Consumers with questions about the recall may contact the company’s owner, Eduardo Rebollo, by email at info@ibericoclub.com.   

Kalle USA of Chicago, Ill., is recalling approximately 168,473 pounds of pork products.

The products were not presented at the U.S. point of entry for inspection. Without undergoing a full inspection, a possibility of adverse health consequences exists.

There are no reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The following items, produced between Oct. 18, 2013, and Nov. 19, 2014, are being recalled:

• 2,976 - 44.10 lb. bags of “SCAN PORK DP-941 NATURAL DEHYDRATED PORK STOCK/NATIONAL DEHYDRATED PORK BROTH” and bearing packaging codes “JJ820738638, JJ820860580, JJ82082258, JJ820889803 or JJ820645387” on the labels.
• 1 - 44.10 lb. bag of “SCAN PORK DP-1075 NATURAL DEHYDRATED PORK STOCK HOT SETTING” and bearing packing code “JJ820822580” on the label.
• 800 – 44.10 lb. bags of “SCAN PORK FI-805 FRESH INJECTION PORK PROTEIN” and bearing packaging codes “JJ820670757 or JJ820665997” on the labels.

The above products were included in 6 different shipments bearing establishment number “Denmark Est. 215” inside the mark of inspection. They were distributed in Arkansas, California, Florida, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Virginia, Washington and Wisconsin.

Consumers with questions about the recall may email company President John Lample at kalle@kalleusa.com.

Kabob’s Acquisition of Lake City, Ga., is recalling approximately 869 pounds of beef and chicken products.

The products may contain peanuts, known allergens, which are not declared on the label.

There are no reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The following items, produced on various dates from November 13, 2014 to January 15, 2015, are subject to recall:

• Cases containing shrink wrapped plastic trays of 100 “Kabob’s Chipotle Steak Churrasco 1053”
• Cases containing shrink wrapped plastic trays of 100 “Kabob’s Latin Inspired Chicken and Cheese in Pastry 7172”
• Cases containing shrink wrapped plastic trays of 100 “Kabob’s White Chicken Meat for Tandoori (Made in USA) 2415”
• Cases containing shrink wrapped plastic trays of 100 “Kabob’s Beef Pastelitos 7159”

The products subject to recall bear the establishment number “EST. 6640” or “P-6640” inside the USDA mark of inspection, and were shipped to distribution centers in Florida, Georgia, Maryland, New York, Oklahoma and Texas for shipment to catering firms.

Consumers with questions about the recall may contact Jonathon Herrera at (404) 361-6283.

Buffalo Provisions of Bronx, N.Y., is recalling approximately 48,210 pounds of chorizo product.

The products may contain peanuts, an allergen which is not declared on the product label.

There are no reports of adverse reactions due to consumption of these products.

The following items subject to recall were produced on various dates between October 9 and January 15, 2015:

• 12-oz. vacuum packages of “Brooklyn Cured Chicken Chorizo” with sell by date “2/13/15”
• 14-oz. and 5-lb. vacuum packages of “La Centro Americana Chorizo Salvadoreno” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “La Centro Americana Chorizo Salvadoreno” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 20-lb. loose butcher packages of “El Casero Mexican Longaniza” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. of vacuum packages of “El Casero Longaniza” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Poblano” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 5-lb. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Poblano” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 5-lb. vacuum packages of “El Casero Spanish Chorizo” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of ‘El Casero Chorizo Ecuadoriano” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 5-lb. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Colombian” with sell by date “2/9/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Colombian” with sell by date “2/9/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “La Centro Americana Colombian Chorizo Hondureno” with sell by date “2/9/15”
• 5-lb. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Jalapeno” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Picoso” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 16-oz. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Jalapeno” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 10 lbs. vacuum packages of “El Casero Chorizo Jalapeno” with sell by date “1/20/15”
• 14-oz. vacuum packages of “La Centro Americana Chorizo Picante Mexican Sausage” with sell by date “1/20/15”

The products subject to recall bear the establishment number “EST. 4312” or “P-4312” inside the USDA mark of inspection and were shipped to retail and wholesale locations in Connecticut, New Jersey and New York.

Consumers with questions about the recall may contact Jamen Armendariz at 718-292-4300.  

If you've resolved to lose weight this year, congratulations. It's a healthy goal. But how you go about it will have a lot to do with whether you succeed.

Dr. Aaron Michelfelder of Loyola University Health System is well acquainted with weight-loss strategies that work and those that don't. He's identified 5 in particular that he sees time and again but with poor results.

Bad strategy No. 1: losing weight at the gym.

Gym memberships soar in January because that's when many people decide to adopt a healthier lifestyle. Working out is good for your health and can help to maintain your weight. But exercise alone is not very effective in shedding unwanted pounds.

Michelfelder says most consumers have no idea how few calories are burned during exercise. Walking on a treadmill for a half hour, for example, will only burn about 200 calories. To lose weight, you will need to eat fewer calories each day. It's that simple.

Bad Strategy No. 2: dramatically changing your diet

Making an abrupt change in diet is not only not a good idea, Michelfelder says it is not even necessary. A better strategy? Try cutting a few hundred calories a day.

First, figure out where your break-even point is calorie-wise. For the average person it might be 2,200 to 2,500 calories a day. To lose a pound a week, consume about 500 fewer calories a day.

Reduce snacking and avoid high-calorie beverages. When going to a restaurant, eat an apple before dinner to dull your appetite, then skip the bread before the main dish arrives. Eat smaller portions and ask for a to-go container.

Bad Strategy No. 3: relying on weight-loss supplements

Michelfelder, a professor in the Department of Family Medicine of Loyola University Chicago Stritch School of Medicine, says supplements burn more muscle than fat. When you stop taking them, he warns you will gain back more fat than muscle, making you worse off than before you started taking them.

Bad Strategy No. 4: trying to lose it fast

Reality shows like The Biggest Loser may inspire the overweight and obese, but create the impression that slimming down can be done quickly. In most cases, it can't – at least, not if you want to keep it off.

Michelfelder says a more realistic -- and healthy -- strategy is to try to lose 1 to 2 pounds per week. Remember, cutting back 500 calories a day, such as a bagel with cream cheese, will help you drop a pound a week.

Can't do 500 calories? Eliminate 250 calories a day and you'll lose 2 pounds per month.

“This will provide the slow-and-steady type of weight loss that will be long-lasting,” Michelfelder said.

Bad Strategy No. 5: giving up

It's easy to become discouraged because losing weight is a process that takes place over an extended period of time. Most of us are accustomed to instant gratification. Weight loss doesn't work that way.

Michelfelder says you shouldn't stress if you don't drop down to a trim, normal weight, defined as a body mass index of between 18.5 and 24.9. If you are overweight or obese, he says losing 10% of your body weight will improve your appearance and have significant health benefits, such as lower blood pressure and a reduced risk of diabetes. Even losing as little as 5 pounds will be good for your joints.

As for structured programs, like Weight Watchers and Jenny Craig, Michelfelder says they can be effective – but more effective if you attend in person instead of participating online.

“For the New Year, most of us should add some weight loss to our resolutions,” Michelfelder said. “Obesity is now so common in the United States that it causes more disease and years of life lost than smoking.”