The Millennial generation appears to be in no hurry to buy a house. Two years ago, when Fannie Mae surveyed this generation, 35% said they were renting in preparation to buy a home. A year later, only 26% gave that answer. A more common response was that renting was “more affordable.”
Since young people traditionally comprise the largest segment of first-time homebuyers, the fact that more Millennials now seem to prefer renting – or are at least resigned to it – is likely to have a major impact on the future of the U.S. housing market.
Real estate website Zillow.com assembled a panel of property experts who conclude that the rate of home ownership will probably decline in the years ahead. Despite that pessimistic outlook the experts agree that homes will probably still go up in price.
The experts expect median home values to end this year up 4.6%, on average. At that rate, they predict the median value will finally eclipse the 2007 bubble peak by 2017.
Lack of enthusiasm
The troubling aspect of the survey, as far as real estate professionals are concerned, is the apparent lack of enthusiasm among Millennials to buy a home. In 2013 the typical first-time homebuyer was 31 years old. The panelists expect that age to rise as the years go on.
"Because of its huge size and great diversity of housing preferences and opinions, the Millennial generation will have enormous influence in coming years, especially as they hold off on getting married and having children, the two biggest reasons for first-time home purchases," said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Stan Humphries.
And that, of course, will have a ripple effect, keeping rents high and potentially impacting the broader economy if fewer people are buying home furnishings and spending their weekends in a home center store.
Humphries, for one, isn't convinced Millennials don't want to buy a home. He calls it a dangerous assumption.
“Recent Zillow research concluded that millions of current renters do want to buy soon, despite headwinds that may end up delaying their purchase,” he said. “And when they do, policymakers, planners and developers will need to ensure that housing is accessible, affordable and desirable to this new generation of homeowners."
Priced out
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) agrees that first-time homebuyers aren't playing a big part in the nation's housing recovery. It says Millennials have been largely priced out of expensive markets like San Francisco and New York.
But the trade group has analyzed markets around the country, looking at current housing trends, job creation and population trends, and has identified a number of markets it says are ideal for this demographic group. After considering all the criteria, NAR came up with this list of cities that should be affordable for young, first-time buyers – even those still paying off student loans:
- Austin, Texas
- Dallas
- Denver
- Des Moines, Iowa
- Grand Rapids, Michigan
- Minneapolis
- New Orleans
- Ogden, Utah
- Salt Lake City
- Seattle
Other markets with strong potential for attracting Millennial homebuyers include:
- Madison, Wisconsin
- Nashville, Tennessee
- Omaha, Nebraska
- Raleigh, North Carolina
- Washington, D.C.
In short, says NAR, Millennials who express a preference for renting probably do so because of the seeming difficulty of saving for a down payment and meeting today's tighter lending standards. But just because it's that way today, doesn't mean it always will be.
“Millennials will eventually settle down, trade their roommates for spouses and want to raise a family,” said NAR President Steve Brown. “As long as median income continues to support purchasing power in most areas, the demand and opportunity will be there for Millennials to purchase their first home.