A new analysis projects home prices will rise faster than household incomes in every state by 2031.
Several states could require households to dramatically increase their incomes to afford a median-priced home.
The findings highlight where homeownership may remain attainable — and where affordability is expected to worsen.
For many Americans, buying a home already feels like a stretch.
Now, a new analysis from HireAHelper suggests that challenges may continue to grow over the next five years if current trends persist. Rather than looking at today's housing market alone, researchers projected how home prices and household incomes could change through 2031 to estimate where homeownership may become more or less attainable.
According to the report, the median U.S. home price is projected to increase from about $390,300 today to roughly $527,500 by 2031, a jump of more than 35%.
During that same period, household incomes are not expected to keep pace with rising home values, widening the affordability gap nationwide. The researchers found that every state could see home prices outgrow income growth, although the size of that gap varies significantly depending on location.
How the researchers reached their conclusions
To estimate future affordability, HireAHelper analyzed historical home price data from Redfin and calculated each state's compound annual home price growth over the previous five years. Researchers then projected those growth rates forward to estimate median home prices in 2031.
The team also estimated the minimum household income needed to afford those projected homes using assumptions that included a 20% down payment, a 30-year mortgage, a 6.5% interest rate, property taxes, and the commonly used guideline that housing costs should consume no more than about one-third of household income.
Those projected income requirements were then compared with current median household income figures from the U.S. Census Bureau to calculate each state's affordability gap. The analysis did not include expenses such as homeowners insurance, HOA fees, or other household debts.
What the findings mean for buyers
The projections show that affordability pressures are expected to differ widely across the country.
Montana ranked as the state with the largest projected affordability gap by 2030, followed by California and New York. In contrast, states including North Dakota, Louisiana, and Iowa were projected to remain among the most affordable relative to current household incomes.
The report also identified large differences at the city level. Several California cities, including Irvine, Fremont, and San Jose, were projected to have some of the nation's widest affordability gaps by 2030, while many lower-cost markets appeared more accessible under the study's assumptions.
While these findings are projections rather than predictions, they illustrate how continued home price growth could affect future buyers if incomes fail to rise at a similar pace. For consumers, the report underscores the importance of considering long-term affordability — not just current home prices — when planning for homeownership.