Home Prices

In October, mortgage rates were around 8%, but that didn’t deter home sellers. Data compiled by CoreLogic shows home prices that month were 4.7% higher than in October 2022.

But all real estate is local. Price changes varied from market to market across the country.

To provide a visual element to these price changes, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York put the data into a map of the U.S. Homes in counties shaded in blue gained value while those in brown lost value. Counties in white were not measured.

The map shows that red-hot Miami-Dade County cooled down a bit in October, with home prices rising 8.8%, down from recent double-digit gains. Maricopa County, Arizona – another active market during the pandemic, saw home prices rise but only by 2.2%.

Markets with double-digit gains were few are far between. Home prices in Chippewa Falls, Wisc., surged 22.2%. The price of a home in Becker County, Minn., rose 15.5% and 16.1% in Siskiyou County, Calif., the northernmost country in the state.

Price declines were more numerous in the West and Southwest. Home prices in Travis County, home of Austin, were down over 6%. Home prices in Okanogan County, Wash., were 5.3% lower than a year ago.

While the October 2023 map doesn’t show the housing market “crash” that many people predicted, the October 2022 map shows just how much prices have changed in 12 months.

In October 2022, home prices in Miami-Dade County increased 22.2% over the previous year and prices in Albany County, Wyo., a popular ski area, had gained 20.2%.

After rising to nearly 8% in October, mortgage rates are falling. Over the last two weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate has fallen to 7.03%. Since the October high, rates have fallen 69 basis points, the fastest rate since the 2008 housing market crash.

“The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged near 7% last week, down from nearly 7.80 percent just six weeks ago,” said Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s chief economist. “When rates began to rapidly drop, purchase applications rebounded initially, but this improvement in demand diminished in the last week. Although these lower rates remain a welcome relief, it is clear they will have to further drop to more consistently reinvigorate demand.”

If so, how far do rates have to drop before affordability improves and buyers return to the market? Desiree Avila, a board-certified Realtor with CRR Fort Lauderdale, says buyers appear to be recovering from the shock of high interest rates and may be ready to buy if rates keep falling.

“I think in the range of the low 7’s, high 6’s can spur spending,”Avila told ConsumerAffairs. “Current rates have not deterred buyers completely, many are finding a way to make it work.”

For example, some buyers have resigned themselves to taking out a high-interest mortgage with a plan to refinance the loan when rates fall. Some buyers are buying down points for a time to reduce the up-front rate. 

There’s still pent-up demand

Avila says there continues to be pent-up demand. If rates continue to fall it could “unleash” a flurry home home-buying. 

“Over the next six months, I am hopeful we will dip into the 6’s,” Avila said. “This would mean reversing a year of interest rate hikes, so I don’t think it will be in the low 6’s, but the high 6’s.

A drop in home prices might also help buyers get back into the market but so far this year, there is little evidence of that. In spite of 8% mortgage rates, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports the median home price in October was $391,800, a 3.4% increase over October 2022.

Total housing inventory at the end of October was 1.15 million units, up 1.8% from September but down 5.7% from one year ago. 

Home sales appear to have hit a brick wall. The combination of near-record home prices and rising mortgage rates has drastically reduced home affordability.

But since early in 2023, home prices just about everywhere have continued to go up. Now, a new report from real estate brokerage company Redfin suggests home prices are beginning to come back to earth in more markets.

The report found that nearly 7% of homes for sale posted a price drop during the four weeks ending October 29, on average, the highest portion on record. In the background, mortgage rates hit their highest level in 23 years last week, cutting even more into what buyers can afford.

Rates have retreated a bit this week but are still elevated, considering the median home price is now over $350,000. But it may take some time for meaningful price reductions to appear in most markets.

'Bizarre' housing market

In spite of slowing sales, low inventory is propping up prices. The total number of homes for sale is down 10% year over year; new listings are up 1% from a year ago – just the second increase since July 2022 – but that’s partly due to new listings falling quickly at this time last year. 

Redfin analysts – as well as many real estate agents – describe the housing market as “bizarre.” Sellers are dropping prices while the average home price continues to rise. Redfin agents describe a mismatch between sellers’ high expectations and the reality of buyers’ budgets, saying it’s more important than ever for sellers to price fairly from the start to attract buyers and sell quickly. 

“Some sellers are pricing too high because they have FOMO (fear of missing out) after their neighbor’s house sold well over asking price two years ago,” said Seattle Redfin Premier agent Patrick Beringer. “While low inventory is driving some competition and relatively affordable homes in popular neighborhoods are still selling fast, they’re getting two or three offers as opposed to 20 offers at the height of the market. With mortgage rates in the 7.5% to 8% range, buyers simply don’t have the budget they would have had two years ago or even one year ago.”

Court verdict could be another hurdle

But if last month's federal court verdict against the National Association of Realtor (NAR) stands, home buyers could face another hurdle. A jury in Kansas City, Mo., found NAR and two major brokers liable for keeping sales commissions high and awarded damages of $1.8 billion.

In a normal transaction, the buyer’s agent and the seller’s agent split a 6% sales commission. The plaintiffs in the case said they shouldn’t have to pay the buyer’s agent and therefore the commission should be a lot less.

If the case stands, homebuyers will have to pay the real estate agent who represents them, adding to the cost of buying a home. But NAR President Tracy Kasper says the case is “not close to being final.”

“We will appeal the liability finding because we stand by the fact that NAR rules serve the best interests of consumers, support market-driven pricing and advance business competition,” Kasper said. “We remain optimistic we will ultimately prevail.”