When everything around us seems to cost us more than it has in several years, travel watchers say we need to take a look at how airfares are actually getting cheaper. According to Scott Keyes, Founder and Chief Flight Expert at Going.com, airfare (as of July 2024) is indeed dropping like a rock -- and now 24% cheaper than its peak in June 2022.
Comparing that to inflation, inflation has grown 21% since February 2020 while airfare has decreased by 11%. If you want even more evidence, he says that airfare is 42% cheaper than it was 10 years ago (adjusting for inflation). You can pick any of those metrics you like, but the result is still the same: a good deal for the traveler.
“So, why are flights getting cheaper? Competition,” Keyes claims. “Airline capacity has been consistently growing 7–15% for the past two years, and that boost in competition puts downward pressure on fares.”
Where to find the biggest drops
Keyes’ research shows that some of the biggest fare drops can be seen on international routes. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ monthly price indices, here are how prices in July 2024 compared to a year ago:
Europe (continental): -9%
United Kingdom: -7%
Asia: -11%
Latin America/Caribbean: -6%
And, yes, there's a "but"
But, before you go headlong into a travel booking frenzy, hang on. You won’t find “The Golden Age of Cheap Flights” working on every flight. Why? Because airfares are based on things like exclusivity of routes and how many people are on a flight.
If, say, Delta is the lone carrier flying from Baltimore to Spartanburg and there’s only four seats available, Delta is likely to charge what it thinks is fair. They’re not being greedy – they’re just running their business as efficiently as possible based on demand.
Or, as Keyes explains, “Think of airfare as a bell curve. For every flight, there are cheap fares and expensive ones, and the prices are changing by the day. Living in this current era means the curve has shifted to the left, and there are far more good deals available than a year or two ago. Whereas expensive flights were commonplace in 2022, today they’re optional."