New research suggests back-to-school discounts are expected to climb through August before dropping off in September.
Fashion and electronics are projected to see some of the biggest seasonal price reductions.
Waiting until late August could help shoppers maximize savings on many back-to-school purchases.
As back-to-school shopping ramps up, many families are wondering whether it's better to buy now or wait for bigger discounts.
A new analysis from Decodo suggests that timing could make a noticeable difference, with discounts expected to increase steadily throughout August before tapering off once the school year begins.
According to the report, retailers tend to introduce modest promotions in late July, but deeper markdowns arrive as the season gains momentum. The researchers found that average discounts rise from about 21% before the season begins to a peak of roughly 34% during the last full week of August. After that, prices are projected to rebound quickly, returning to typical discount levels by the middle of September.
"Back-to-school discounts follow a clear pattern, with savings building throughout August before peaking in the final full week of the month,” Gabriele Vitke, Product Marketing Team Lead at Decodo, said. “While many parents start shopping as soon as school lists are released, our data suggests those who can wait a little longer are likely to benefit from significantly bigger discounts, particularly on clothing and electronics.
"If possible, plan purchases in advance and avoid leaving essential items until the very last minute. Striking the right balance between availability and timing can help families make the most of seasonal promotions while keeping back-to-school costs down."
How the research was conducted
The findings are based on Decodo's analysis of historical back-to-school pricing patterns using data collected through its Web Scraping API and its Dynamic Pricing Index.
Researchers examined pricing trends across U.S. retailers from July through September, using historical 2025 pricing data alongside current seasonal patterns to project this year's shopping trends.
The analysis tracked average weekly discounts across five major retail categories: fashion, electronics, marketplaces, DIY and home improvement, and groceries. Researchers also compared how individual retailers adjusted prices over the course of the season by measuring the difference between their regular discounts and their peak late-August promotions.
What it means for shoppers
The data suggests that patience may pay off for shoppers who have flexibility in when they buy.
Fashion posted the deepest expected discounts, reaching about 36% at its seasonal peak, while electronics showed one of the biggest jumps compared with its usual discount levels, increasing from about 17% to 25%.
Marketplaces, home improvement stores, and grocery retailers also showed larger promotions as the season progressed, though their discounts were generally smaller than those seen in apparel.
Among the retailers analyzed, Nordstrom was projected to offer the largest increase in seasonal discounts, followed closely by Macy's and Kroger. Meanwhile, Walmart's prices changed the least throughout the season, reflecting its everyday low-price approach rather than steep seasonal promotions.
For consumers, the findings suggest that shoppers who don't need supplies immediately may benefit from watching prices throughout August, comparing multiple retailers, and making larger purchases before discounts begin to disappear in early September.