A new economic study suggests the iPhone may have contributed significantly to declining U.S. birth rates after its 2007 launch.
Researchers estimate smartphone adoption accounted for 33% to 52% of the decline in fertility among women ages 15 to 44.
The study links smartphone access to fewer in-person interactions, lower sexual frequency, and increased online activity.
A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) argues that one of the most influential consumer products of the 21st century may have had an unexpected demographic consequence: fewer babies.
In a working paper titled "Is the iPhone Birth Control? Causal Evidence from AT&T's 2007–2011 Carrier Monopoly," economists Caitlin Myers and Ezekiel Hooper conclude that the spread of smartphones following the iPhone's introduction in 2007 played a significant role in reducing U.S. birth rates, particularly among younger women.
“The U.S. general fertility rate has fallen by 22% since 2007, a sustained decline not readily explained by economic conditions, contraceptive use, housing or childcare costs, or other commonly cited factors,” the authors wrote. “We assess the potential role of a different shock: the diffusion of the smartphone.”
Unique circumstance
The researchers took advantage of a unique circumstance surrounding the original iPhone. From its launch in June 2007 until early 2011, the device was available exclusively through AT&T. Because AT&T's mobile broadband network expanded unevenly across the country, the authors were able to compare fertility trends in areas that gained access to the iPhone earlier with those that received coverage later.
Their analysis found that access to the iPhone reduced births by between 4.5% and 8.0% among women ages 15 to 19 and by 3.2% to 6.6% among women ages 20 to 24. Smaller but statistically significant declines were also observed among older age groups.
The researchers estimate that smartphone diffusion explains between one-third and one-half of the overall decline in the U.S. general fertility rate among women ages 15 to 44 during the study period.
While previous research has linked economic conditions, housing costs, and changing social norms to falling birth rates, the authors argue that smartphones altered how people spend their time and interact with one another. Survey data examined in the study suggest smartphone adoption was associated with reduced face-to-face socializing, increased pornography consumption, and less frequent sexual activity.
Testing the hypothesis
To test whether the results were driven by other factors, the researchers conducted placebo analyses using the coverage footprints of rival carriers Verizon and Sprint before they carried the iPhone. Those tests found no similar effects, strengthening the argument that smartphone access itself contributed to the fertility decline.
The findings add a new dimension to the ongoing debate over the societal impact of smartphones. Since the iPhone's debut, researchers have examined links between smartphone use and everything from mental health and productivity to social relationships. This study suggests the technology may also have reshaped demographic trends in ways few anticipated when Apple's device first reached consumers nearly two decades ago.