Not just burns and smoke: August 2023 in Maui saw a 67 % spike in overall deaths, many not officially linked to the wildfire.
Our homes became danger zones: 80% of excess deaths happened outside hospitals — up from 68% in typical summers.
Looking forward: Experts urge wildfire prevention grounded in Native Hawaiian ecological knowledge to avoid repeating this silent disaster.
Wildfires grab headlines for the visible flames and heartbreak, but there’s often a quieter, hidden toll.
A recent Frontiers in Climate study revealed that the 2023 Lāhainā wildfires in Maui didn’t just claim lives directly; they also spurred a dramatic rise in overall deaths across the county. And shockingly, many of these extra fatalities didn’t even make the official wildfire death count.
“Wildfires can cause a measurable, population-wide increase in mortality, beyond what is captured in official fatality counts,” researcher Michelle Nakatsuka said in a news release. “This suggests the true toll of the Lāhainā wildfire was even broader than previously understood.”
“It also points to the need for prevention strategies that go beyond reactive wildfire control. As Native Hawaiians, the co-first authors are especially hopeful that wildfire mitigation strategies will center kānaka maoli perspectives, including the restoration of traditional agroecological systems.”
The study
Rather than counting only confirmed fire-related fatalities, the researchers looked at a broader measure known as all-cause excess mortality — that’s how many more people died during the wildfire month than would normally have.
They trained a statistical model (called SARIMA) on five years of Maui County data (August 2018–July 2023), excluding COVID-19-related deaths, to predict what the death count should’ve been.
Then, they compared that to the actual deaths in August 2023. To ensure the findings were solid, they ran 5,000 simulations and calculated confidence intervals, even checking what happens if COVID data stayed in the baseline for fairness.
The results
In August 2023, Maui County experienced an estimated 82 excess deaths — a whopping 67% increase over expectations.
Additionally, during the peak week ending August 19, deaths surged by 367% — more than triple what the model predicted. Interestingly, most of these fatalities happened outside medical facilities — 80% versus 68% in prior months — hinting that emergency access was severely hampered.
Although official reports noted around 100–102 wildfire deaths, these excess mortality figures suggest other indirect causes — like delayed treatment or smoke-related health crises — played a role.
“Wildfires can cause death in a variety of ways,” researcher Dr. Kekoa Taparra of UCLA said in the news release.
“In this case, recent reports suggest many deaths were due to direct exposure, smoke inhalation and burns. Others likely stemmed from disruptions in healthcare, like not being able to access critical medications or emergency treatment. Wildfires can also exacerbate pre-existing conditions.”
Looking to the future
As events like this unfortunately become more commonplace, the researchers hope that these findings spark change for future wildfires.
“In the short term, it’s critical for people exposed to wildfires to get immediate medical treatment,” Nakatsuka said. “Fast, accessible emergency care can save lives.”
“In the long term, we’d like to see more policy investment in wildfire prevention rooted in Native Hawaiian ecological knowledge,” Dr. Taparra added.
“This includes restoring traditional agroecological systems, removing dry, non-native grasses, restoring traditional pre-colonial water systems, and improving fire risk modeling to better guide preparedness efforts.”