Understanding Consumer Confidence

Consumers’ attitudes about the economy took a sharp turn this month on the heels of declining confidence recorded in July.

The Conference Board reports that its Consumer Confidence Index for August fell to 84.8 from 91.7 in July. Consumers appear to be most concerned about current conditions, with the Present Situation Index falling nearly 11 points to 84.2.

The Expectations Index -- based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions -- also fell, but not by much; it dropped from 88.9 in July to 85.2 this month.

"The Present Situation Index decreased sharply, with consumers stating that both business and employment conditions had deteriorated over the past month,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook, and their financial prospects, also declined and continues on a downward path.”

Something else may be at work. The expiration of some benefits under the CARES Act -- particularly the extra $600 a week in unemployment benefits -- likely weighed heavily on consumers’ economic concerns.

Those benefits, plus the $1,200 direct payment to every adult in the second quarter, could have buoyed consumers’ confidence in the early months that they were going to navigate the financial turmoil caused by the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.

Reality check

The fact that Congress was unable to reach an agreement on extending some of the benefits before leaving on a month-long vacation may have served as a reality check for struggling small business owners and employees thrown out of work.

Franco says the data presents a mixed picture. On one hand, consumers are still behaving as though things are under control. The latest survey suggests that could change in the weeks ahead.

“Consumer spending has rebounded in recent months but increasing concerns amongst consumers about the economic outlook and their financial well-being will likely cause spending to cool in the months ahead," Franco said.

Consumers are also expressing growing doubts about the job market. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" declined from 22.3 percent to 21.5 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased from 20.1 percent to 25.2 percent.

As coronavirus (COVID-19) cases surged in June, consumers’ confidence in the economy tumbled in July.

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.6 from 98.3 in June. Creeping doubts about the economic future apparently led to the sharp decline.

When asked how things are at the moment, consumers actually had an improved outlook. The Present Situation Index, based on how consumers feel about current business and labor conditions, rose from 86.7 to 94.2.

But the Expectations Index – based on consumers' outlook for the short-term future -- plunged from106.1 in June to 91.5 this month. Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says optimism was growing in June following a sharp rebound in the economy. Then, reality apparently set in.

“Large declines (in confidence) were experienced in Michigan, Florida, Texas, and California, no doubt a result of the resurgence of COVID-19,” Franco said. “Looking ahead, consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market and remain subdued about their financial prospects. Such uncertainty about the short-term future does not bode well for the recovery, nor for consumer spending."

Things seem to be okay at the moment

Economists may take some solace in consumer attitudes about how things are now. The concerns consumers expressed to survey-takers are about what could happen in the future, not how things were going this month.

In fact, the percentage of consumers saying business conditions are "good" was relatively unchanged at 17.3 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "bad" fell from 42.5 percent to 39.1 percent. 

Despite persistently high unemployment, consumers' assessment of the job market was increasingly favorable. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" increased from 20.5 percent to 21.3 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased from 23.3 percent to 20.0 percent.

Trouble ahead

It’s clear from the survey that many consumers see trouble ahead. When the survey was completed at mid-month, it was uncertain whether Congress would extend extra unemployment benefits for millions that are scheduled to expire at the end of the month.

It’s now fairly certain that some type of extension is in the works, though Republicans and Democrats are still at odds over how much the extra payments should be. Meanwhile, both parties and the White House appear to favor another direct payment to every American adult to stimulate the economy.

At mid-month, however, consumers were not at all optimistic about the short-term future. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months declined from 42.4 percent to 31.6 percent.

Consumers were significantly more confident in June, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index. But after the coronavirus (COVID-19) shutdown, maybe “up” was the only place confidence could go.

After remaining virtually unchanged in May from April’s dreary number, the index rose from 85.9 to 98.1. An index reading of 100 is considered the benchmark for a positive outlook. Consumers’ assessment of the present situation showed the biggest improvement, rising nearly 18 points. The outlook for the short-term future increased from 97.6 in May to 106.0 in June.

The index is based on random consumer surveys conducted by Nielson, which asked about a variety of business, labor, and general economic trends.

While confidence improved last month, Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says the index is far below its bull position in February, before the pandemic began to force an economic shutdown.

"The reopening of the economy and relative improvement in unemployment claims helped improve consumers' assessment of current conditions, but the Present Situation Index suggests that economic conditions remain weak,” Franco said. 

Economic activity still low

While consumers appear to be less pessimistic about the short-term outlook, Franco says they don’t appear to believe there will be a significant turnaround in economic activity.

“Faced with an uncertain and uneven path to recovery, and a potential COVID-19 resurgence, it's too soon to say that consumers have turned the corner and are ready to begin spending at pre-pandemic levels," she said.

A stock market rally shrugging off day-after-day of bad news could be one thing lifting people’s spirits, especially if they have a stock portfolio or retirement accounts invested in stocks. But there have been plenty of unpleasant reality checks, including the government’s report this week that nearly half of Americans don’t have a job.

Less pessimistic

Perhaps the best you can say is that consumers’ short-term outlook was less pessimistic in June. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will get better over the next six months was virtually unchanged at 42.6 percent. At the same time, there was a marked drop in consumers who expect things to get worse.

The June survey also uncovered an element of realism. Few are expecting a sharp bounce-back the way Wall Street may be envisioning it. 

But when it comes to their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase improved from 14.6 percent to 15.1 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined from 15.4 percent to 14.4 percent.

While the economy faces enormous challenges in the months ahead, consumers seem to think things will get better sooner than most experts have predicted.

The Federal Reserve’s May Survey of Consumer Expectations shows small signs of improvement in households’ expectations compared to April. Consumers expect prices to rise over the next year but think the labor market will get slightly better in the months ahead.

As the stock market surged, even in the absence of encouraging data, consumers' mood seemed to reflect that optimism. Consumers are more upbeat about employment opportunities, even as company after company warned that its earnings would slide.

At the same time, consumers’ outlook was not completely rosy. Their perceived and expected availability of credit continued to worsen. Median inflation expectations increased at the one-year horizon and remained stable at the three-year horizon.

Inflation expectations

The expectation for inflation at the one-year horizon increased by 0.4 of a percentage point to 3.0 percent in May. Median expectations for inflation three years from now remained unchanged at 2.6 percent. 

The expectation for home prices improved slightly. In April, there was not much sentiment for rising home prices; however, consumers improved their outlook in May, suggesting prices could rise by 0.6 percent. The slight increase was driven mostly by respondents who live in the West and Northeast Census regions.

In spite of the widespread layoffs and surge in unemployment, consumers appear to believe the employment picture is improving. Median year-ahead household income growth expectations increased from 1.9 percent in April to 2.1 percent in May after declining for three consecutive months. 

Even so, that number is considerably lower than its year-ago level of 2.8 percent. A quarter of respondents expect a decrease of at least 0.3 percent in their household incomes over the next 12 months.

A return to household spending

But in spite of all the headwinds to the economy that have increased over the last three months, consumers expect their median household spending to increase by 0.7 percent, even as it remains below its year-over-year average of  3.5 percent.

Most consumers don’t expect to see an improvement in access to credit anytime soon. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago deteriorated for the third consecutive month, with almost half of respondents reporting that credit is harder to get today than a year ago. 

Expectations for year-ahead credit availability also worsened, with fewer respondents expecting credit will become easier to obtain.

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index remains near record lows but stabilized in May, suggesting consumers are coming to terms with the impact of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and are slowly becoming more optimistic.

The Index rose slightly to 86.6 (1985=100), up from 85.7 in April. While consumers’ assessment of the present situation declined slightly, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – rose from 94.3 in April to 96.9 this month.

The survey took place amid a backdrop of closed businesses and institutions, social distancing, and increasing unemployment. Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says the results are a little surprising when viewed in that context.

“Following two months of rapid decline, the free-fall in confidence stopped in May," Franco said.  "The severe and widespread impact of COVID-19 has been mostly reflected in the Present Situation Index, which has plummeted nearly 100 points since the onset of the pandemic. Short-term expectations moderately increased as the gradual re-opening of the economy helped improve consumers' spirits.”

Despite that improvement, Franco said consumers remain concerned about their financial prospects. In addition, inflation expectations continue to climb, which could lead to a sense of diminished purchasing power and curtail spending. 

“While the decline in confidence appears to have stopped for the moment, the uneven path to recovery and potential second wave are likely to keep a cloud of uncertainty hanging over consumers' heads," Franco said.

Wall Street even more optimistic

In recent days, Wall Street investors have appeared to share consumers’ cautious optimism. Major stock averages are close to the all-time highs reached in February, before the shutdown began. In Tuesday’s post-holiday trading, the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.2 percent.

Analysts said investors were cheered by signs that the economy is opening back up faster than expected, with restaurant bookings and even hotel and airline reservations increasing, according to The Wall Street Journal.

In The Conference Board’s May survey, consumers agreed that business conditions weren’t all that great, but their view of the labor market was mixed. Despite millions of people suddenly being unemployed, the percentage of consumers claiming jobs are "hard to get" decreased from 34.5 percent to 27.8 percent.

Most of the optimism was found in the short-term outlook. Those expecting business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 39.8 percent to 43.3 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased from 25.1 percent to 21.4 percent.

Despite the fast-spreading coronavirus that’s sickening and killing thousands around the world and plunging financial markets into turmoil, consumers remain remarkably confident.

The Conference Board reports that its Consumer Confidence Index, based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions, rose slightly in February after another gain in January.

The index rose to 130.7 despite the fact that consumers’ short-term outlook for business and employment conditions suffered a significant dip.

But that was more than offset by a sharp rise in the Expectations Index, which measures consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions in the months ahead. That rose more than six points.

"Despite the decline in the Present Situation Index, consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators. “Consumers' short-term expectations improved, and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near term.

‘Glass is half-full’

The February report seems to indicate a “glass is half-full” sensibility among consumers. They generally think the present situation isn’t as good as it should be, but they’re optimistic about the short-term future.

Consumers who describe business conditions as "good" declined from 40 percent to 38.6 percent. Those saying business conditions are "bad" rose from 10.4 percent to 11.9 percent. 

Consumers weren’t as bullish on the job market this month. Those saying jobs are "plentiful" fell from 47.2 percent to 44.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" increased from 11.9 percent to 14.8 percent.

Despite that finding, consumers generally expect their fortunes to improve in the near future. More than 20 percent expect business conditions to be better in six months, up from a little more than 18 percent in January. There was also a decline in the percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to get worse.

Didn’t fully measure the market sell-off

The February survey was mostly conducted before this week’s dramatic stock market plunge over concerns about the coronavirus, codenamed COVID-19. Economist Joel Naroff, of Naroff Economic Advisors, says the market turmoil could have an impact in the near future.

“Consumers remain confident, but continued declines in the equity markets are likely to test their resolve,” Naroff wrote on his blog.

Naroff also sees a warning in the data. The drop in the Present Situation Index in February signals some consumer discomfort with the economy. Unless the stock market bounces back quickly, he says the March report could show a less confident consumer.

After dipping in November, consumer confidence has increased for two straight months. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose nearly three points to 131.6 in January after a smaller increase in December.

The biggest boost to confidence came from consumers’ feelings about their present situations.  Lynn Franco, the senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says the back-to-back increases in confidence are the result of a robust job market.

"Optimism about the labor market should continue to support confidence in the short-term and, as a result, consumers will continue driving growth and prevent the economy from slowing in early 2020," she said.

Consumers who say jobs are "plentiful" increased from 46.5 percent to 49.0 percent in January. At the same time, those who believe jobs are "hard to get" declined from 13.0 percent to 11.6 percent.

Optimism on the part of consumers has driven the economy over the last year as business investment has declined. Consumers came through for the nation’s retailers during the recent holiday shopping season after businesses feared a drop in sales because of the shorter shopping period.

But much of the increase came online. A late December report by Mastercard showed that U.S. online sales finished at record-high levels, growing by 18.8 percent over 2018. 

Optimistic start to 2020

Consumers' optimism has carried into 2020, as the latest Conference Board report shows an increasing number of consumers believe business conditions are improving. Those saying business conditions are "good" increased from 39.0 percent to 40.8 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "bad" decreased from 11.0 percent to 10.4 percent. 

There’s no doubt that a low unemployment rate and rising average hourly earnings make consumers feel a little more secure in the short term, but what about the months ahead? The Conference Board survey suggests the good feelings could last a while longer.

The survey shows the proportion of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 15.5 percent to 17.2 percent. Those who expect fewer jobs declined from 13.9 percent to 13.4 percent. 

Regarding their short-term income prospects, the percentage of consumers expecting an improvement declined from 22.7 percent to 22.0 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease was virtually unchanged at 7.7 percent.

While other pillars of the economy have become wobbly in the second half of the year, it’s been consumers who have kept the economy humming through their spending habits.

But lately, there are signs consumers may be running short of enthusiasm. The Conference Board reports that its Consumer Confidence Index declined slightly in October for a second straight month.

The decline was minor, and the Index still stands at a healthy 125.9, down from 126.3 in September. But it’s clear that consumers are beginning to express some doubts about the future. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – declined from 96.8 last month to 94.9 this month.

"Consumer confidence was relatively flat in October, following a decrease in September," said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "The Present Situation Index improved, but expectations weakened slightly as consumers expressed some concerns about business conditions and job prospects. However, confidence levels remain high and there are no indications that consumers will curtail their holiday spending."

Good news for retailers

That comes as good news for retailers who are benefitting from consumers’ upbeat mood. Over the last few days, as publicly traded companies have reported third-quarter earnings, it has been consumer staples that have performed the best, along with health care.

There’s no doubt that consumers’ optimism has been fed by low oil prices, which have produced relatively low gasoline prices that are about 22 cents a gallon lower than they were at this time last year.

On the positive side of the ledger, there was an increase this month in the number of consumers who say current business conditions are “good.” There were also fewer consumers labeling business conditions as “bad.”

But consumers' assessment of the job market was mixed. There were slightly fewer consumers saying job openings are “plentiful” and more who said jobs are “hard to get.”

And if consumers think times are good, they seem less sure about how long that will last. The percentage of consumers who think business conditions will improve over the next six months fell from 20.0 percent to 18.6 percent.

Consumers have been major contributors to economic growth this year, but their optimism appears to be waning a bit.

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index, a gauge of how consumers feel about the economy, lost significant ground in September after a slight decline the month before. The index is a still-respectable 125, but it was 134.2 in August.

"Consumers were less positive in their assessment of current conditions and their expectations regarding the short-term outlook also weakened,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 

Franco thinks the ongoing trade war with China and the escalation of tariffs at the end of August shook consumers’ confidence. Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, agrees with that assessment, adding that trade tensions have morphed into trade anxiety.

“The Index dropped significantly this month, which does not bode well for consumer spending, especially combined with the weakening numbers in the  Consumer Sentiment Index, which also pointed to worries over the trade situation,” Frick said in an email to ConsumerAffairs. “The trade war ratcheted up significantly in both rhetoric and tariffs.”

More reliance on consumers

Frick says the fact that the manufacturing sector is contracting and the job market is softening means consumers are being relied upon even more to keep the economy moving.

“We'll see how this affects consumer spending in the months to come, though we may have had a taste of lower spending already--retail sales were flat in August after deducting for a surge in car sales,” Frick said.

Specifically, the Conference Board monthly survey found consumers' appraisal of current economic conditions is less favorable than it was a month before. There was a slight decrease in the number of consumers who said business conditions are “good” and a slight increase in those who said conditions were “bad.”

Questions about the job market

Consumers also seem to be more wary of employment conditions, with the percentage of those saying jobs are plentiful falling from 50.3 percent to 44.8 percent.

Franco says the erosion of confidence was not unexpected, especially in light of trade tensions. She says consumers’ confidence in the economy may have plateaued for the year.

“While confidence could continue hovering around current levels for months to come, at some point this continued uncertainty will begin to diminish consumers' confidence in the expansion,"  Franco said.

Despite its recent record highs, many on Wall Street worry that a recession looms ahead. Economists agree that there are signs of an economic slowdown. But the latest University of Michigan (UM) Consumer Sentiment survey shows consumers are just as bullish as ever. Spending during last week’s Prime Day underscores that fact.

Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the latest UM survey is how little it has changed from the past few surveys, except to record even more optimism. The consumer sentiment index moved to 98.4, up slightly from 98.2 in June. 

The consensus among economists is that it would go down. Much to their surprise, it didn’t.

“Consumers seem to have a better handle on the economy than many analysts, who fixate on factors such as the inflation rate and on the perceived necessity of rate cuts, even with the stock market near record highs and the domestic economy doing well,” Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, told ConsumerAffairs. “And consumers don't seem fazed now by the specter of an escalated trade war. This is reflected not only in the Consumer Sentiment numbers, but in retail spending.”

Record spending at Amazon

Amazon blew out previous records last week, recording a 53 percent increase in sales over its 2018 Prime Day promotion. Sales at competing retailers were also higher last week. If the economy is slowing, consumers have yet to feel it.

“Perhaps the most interesting change in the July survey was in inflation expectations, with the year-ahead rate slightly lower and the longer term rate moving to the top of the narrow range it has traveled in the past few years,” said Richard Curtin, UM surveys of consumers chief economist.

This week’s Federal Reserve meeting could increase the feeling of economic optimism since it is widely expected that the Fed will cut interest rates. Should that happen, the record-high interest rates on credit card balances will go down slightly. It should also make new and used car loans less expensive.

But as is often the case, consumers can be the last to know when things start to head south. The Conference Board reported last week that the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) declined in June for the first time since last December. 

The index measured weakness in new orders for manufacturing, housing permits, and unemployment insurance claims.

Consumer confidence dipped once again in March after bouncing back slightly in February. The Consumer Confidence Index fell by 7.3 points, coming in at 124.1. Experts say that consumer confidence has been turbulent to begin 2019 due to a variety of factors.

“Confidence has been somewhat volatile over the past few months, as consumers have had to weather volatility in the financial markets, a partial government shutdown, and a weak February jobs report,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at the Conference Board, in the report.

“Despite these dynamics, consumers remain confident that the economy will continue expanding in the near term. However, the overall trend in confidence has been softening since last summer, pointing to a moderation in economic growth.”

Expectations for business and economy are down

The Conference Board’s report shows that consumers are somewhat less enthusiastic about business and labor market conditions in March than they were in February.

When it came to business, the number of consumers who said business conditions were “good” decreased from 40.6 percent to 33.4 percent. Those who said conditions were “bad” increased from 11.1 percent to 13.6 percent. That negativity spread to consumers’ future outlook; those who said they think business conditions will improve went down from 19.6 percent to 17.7 percent, while those who think conditions will worsen remained steady (9.3 percent vs. 9.2 percent).

These negative trends were consistent when it came to the labor market. Consumers who said jobs are currently “plentiful” decreased from 45.7 percent to 42.0 percent, and those who said jobs were “hard to get” increased from 11.7 percent to 13.7 percent. Those who said jobs would become more numerous in the months ahead also decreased, from 19.0 percent to 16.4 percent, while those who think jobs will become more scarce increased from 12.3 percent to 13.4 percent.

Perhaps the only bright spot in the report concerned incomes. Consumers who said they are expecting a bump to their income in the short-term increased from 20.6 percent last month to 21.0 percent in March, while those who expected a decline in income decreased from 8.3 percent to 7.6 percent.

Is Amazon too big to trust? Is Google? Facebook?

The answers would be no, no, and yes according to a new survey on “institutional confidence.” Those results came out of the American Institutional Confidence Poll, a survey that canvassed Americans’ satisfaction levels on 20 different topics ranging from banking to healthcare.

Overall, it’s the military that inspires the greatest confidence (52 percent), but digital cornerstones Amazon (36 percent) and Google (27 percent) were right behind. Facebook, Congress, and political parties? You guessed it -- dragging up the rear with the lowest confidence levels, all below 10 percent.

If Amazon told you to...

The study caught the attention of Carolyn Adolph and Joshua Nicholls, hosts of “Prime(d),” an all-things-Amazon podcast from Seattle public radio KUOW, stationed right in Amazon’s backyard.

“You know the saying: If Amazon told you to jump off a bridge, would you do it?,” posed Adolph and Nicholls. “We would never trust Amazon to have that kind of control of our lives, right? Except, we do trust the retail giant from Seattle -- a lot. That's in part because the company is so focused on the customer experience.”

“Amazon has built enormous trust in its users one smiley box at a time, and it’s done so during a very distrusting period,” said Adolph. “And, yet, of all the rich and powerful tech companies out there, none has attracted more interest from antitrust scholars ... quite as much as Amazon.”

“They say Amazon is too big to trust. That it’s amassing way too much market power, and starting to blur lines that shouldn’t blur” -- no doubt a reference to Amazon’s interest in adding groceries, drug prescription fulfillment, and video streaming to the markets it wants to corner.

Yet, there seems to be no stopping the online giant, even though Amazon's muscle places it in a rather precarious position, one that “puts it at risk of being broken apart by regulators” speculates Prime(d)’s hosts.

As proof of Amazon’s tightrope walking, Adolph and Nicholls pointed to the Edelman Trust Barometer, an annual gauge of how much trust Americans put in each of the four major societal institutions -- government, business, media, and NGOs (non-governmental organizations).

That barometer took a big swing in the last year -- a big swing in the wrong direction, from bad to worse.

“I can totally believe that. There are so many institutions that tell you they are going to do something, and then they don’t do it,” Nicholls said. “Or the opposite,” Adolph added. “Facebook tells you they care about you and your privacy and, then, it gives your data to Cambridge Analytica. … We’re supposed to be able to count on government to protect us, but that’s getting harder.”

“I expect us to be scrutinized”

Amazon founder Jeff Bezos doesn’t shy away from the question of his megalopolis being put under the government’s microscope.

“Whether it's the current U.S. administration or any other government agency around the world -- Amazon is now a large corporation and I expect us to be scrutinized... It just makes sense,” Bezos told the San Francisco Chronicle.

“And by the way, it's not personal. I think you can go astray on this if you're the founder of a company -- one of these big tech companies, or any other big institution. If you go astray on this, you might start to take it personally. Like ‘Why are you someone inspecting me?’ And I wish that people would just say, ‘Yes, it's fine.’”

Not too big to fail

At a company-wide meeting in 2018, an Amazon employee put Bezos on the spot about Amazon's future, asking Bezos what lessons he’d learned from the recent bankruptcies of once almighty companies like Sears.

"Amazon is not too big to fail," Bezos replied, in a recording of the meeting obtained by CNBC. "In fact, I predict one day Amazon will fail. Amazon will go bankrupt. If you look at large companies, their lifespans tend to be 30-plus years, not a hundred-plus years."

"If we start to focus on ourselves, instead of focusing on our customers, that will be the beginning of the end," Bezos contemplated. "We have to try and delay that day for as long as possible."

A new survey of consumers shows a declining level of confidence in their short-term financial outlook.

According to Bankrate’s Financial Outlook Survey, 55 percent of consumers who were questioned don’t expect their financial situation to improve in 2019. This includes 12 percent who think their situation will be worse and 44 percent who think it will stay the same.

It follows a December Bankrate survey that found six in 10 employees received neither a raise in their current job nor a better paying job last year, a sizable increase from 2017.

The survey was taken during the time of the current government shutdown, which could have some effect on the outcome. Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior financial analyst, says a shutdown of the federal government can have a big impact on consumer confidence.

“If you think about, first of all, just that in general, the erosion of confidence in institutions and then you think about essential developments in recent years with respect to government shutdowns, the divisive nature of national politics and the lack of the ability on the part of elected leaders to forge productive and constructive solutions to major problems — it is understandable why people may feel that way,” Hamrick said.

The current government shutdown is now the longest on record. President Trump is demanding that legislation funding the government include some money for starting construction of a wall along the U.S. border with Mexico. Democrats in Congress have refused to consider such a proposal.

Not the only factor

But the stalemate in Washington is not the only factor that appears to be providing a drag on confidence. While employment prospects remain positive, consumers say the rise in interest rates is causing economic hardship, suggesting that many are carrying credit card balances that get more expensive every time the Fed raises interest rates.

But it turns out not everyone is pessimistic about the economic future. Millennials are markedly more optimistic about the economy.

Nearly 60 percent of young adults in the millennial generation predict their financial fortunes will improve in 2019. Economists say that’s surprising considering how much student loan debt this generation is carrying.

Millennials are not the only ones going into the new year with an increased degree of optimism. Nearly half -- 44 percent -- of survey respondents think 2019 will be a better year financially. More than half think they’ll earn more money this year and nearly 40 percent think they can reduce their debt.

It’s not the kind of news retailers want to hear just days before Christmas. Consumers appear less confident that they can pay their credit card bills, which could influence last-minute holiday spending.

CompareCards, a division of LendingTree, reports its Credit Card Confidence Index dipped in December showing consumers are less confident they can pay off their credit card bills in full. That doesn’t necessarily mean that consumers won’t keep spending, but worries about carrying a balance -- or increasing one -- could rein in purchases.

On a scale of one to five, 61 percent of cardholders rated their confidence level a four or five, down from 64 percent who felt that way the month before. At the other end of the scale, slightly more consumers rated their confidence level between 1 and 2 than they did in November.

How about paying off the balance within six months? Using that same scale, only 67 percent of cardholders were confident they could do that, compared to 71 percent in November.

Subject to interpretation

The numbers, of course, are subject to interpretation. It doesn’t necessarily mean consumers’ economic position is slipping; it could mean their spending during the holiday shopping season has increased.

Consumers who usually pay off a $500 credit card bill each month might have spent twice that during the holiday shopping season so far and realize they may need a couple of months to  clear the ledger.

Other data within the survey suggests that could be the case. More than a third of consumers -- 37 percent -- said they paid off their credit card balance in full in each of the last six months, suggesting prudent use of their plastic.

At the same time, 20 percent of the consumers in the survey said they were not able to pay their credit card balance in full even once in the last six months.

Glass is half-full?

Matt Schulz, chief industry analyst at CompareCards, prefers to see the results as a “glass is half-full” scenario, noting that the numbers are pretty good considering the stock market’s recent swoon and the fact that consumers are shopping for the holidays.

"Frankly, the fact that it didn't dip more may be a testament to just how confident Americans still feel about their finances,” Schulz said. “While the economy is certainly strong today, the next few months hold many potential landmines as people wrestle with increasing debt, rising interest rates, an unpredictable political landscape, and a volatile stock market.”

A Commerce Department report shows consumers increased their spending at retailers last month 0.9 percent as holiday sales got underway in earnest.

Consumer spending for the third quarter was 3.6 percent higher. Analysts say the new numbers suggest the economy is still strengthening and could point to stronger-than-expected economic growth in the final three months of 2018.

Consumers have had a pretty good summer, if the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index is to be believed. After a big jump in August, the index -- a gauge of how consumers feel about economic issues -- has reached an 18-year high.

To be precise, the last time consumers felt this good about the economy and their present situation was just before the dot-com crash of 2000. This month the index reached 138.4, up from 134.7 in August.

“After a considerable improvement in August, consumer confidence increased further in September and hovers at an 18-year high,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The September reading is not far from the all-time high of 144.7 reached in 2000.”

Optimistic about the future

Consumers appear happy with the current conditions, bolstered by a strong economy and robust job growth. The Expectations Index, which measures optimism for the future, surged in September, suggesting consumers expect the positive economic trends to continue.

"These historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending, and should be welcome news for retailers as they begin gearing up for the holiday season," Franco said.

What's notable is consumer optimism about the short-term outlook took a leap forward in September, despite growing concerns about trade tensions, brought on by escalating tariffs by the U.S. and its trading partners.

Strong business outlook

The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions will improve over the next six months increased from 24.4 percent to 27.6 percent this month, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined, from 9.9 percent to 8.0 percent.

People looking for jobs were also more optimistic. The percentage of consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 21.5 percent to 22.5 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased from 13.2 percent to 11.0 percent.

Consumer Confidence, as measured by the Conference Board, surged this month, rising sharply from the month before. The confidence index rose from 127.9 last month to 133.4 in August.

There were similar large gains in the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index, which measures how consumers feel about the future. The index is constructed from polling conducted by Nielsen.

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says confidence is at its highest level in 18 years, when the index hit 135.8 in October 2000. Franco says August is part of a positive trend she has seen throughout 2018.

"Consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved further,” Franco said. “Expectations, which had declined in June and July, bounced back in August and continue to suggest solid economic growth for the remainder of 2018.”

Confidence is a closely-watched economic indicator because consumer behavior has such a large impact on whether businesses do well.

Consumers likely to keep spending

"Overall, these historically high confidence levels should continue to support healthy consumer spending in the near-term," Franco said.

Consumer spending can be a double-edged sword. If consumers suddenly stop buying things, the economy can slip into a recession. But if they continue to increase spending, it can sometimes lead to inflation. If they put that spending on plastic, it can build up dangerous levels of debt.

The Conference Board's monthly survey also takes consumers' pulse on the job market. In August, the outlook is mixed.

The percentage of consumers who expect more jobs in the months ahead fell from 22.6 percent to 21.7 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs also decreased, from 15.2 percent to 14.1 percent.

Even though wage growth has been slow in 2018, a number of consumers are hopeful that's about to change, The percentage of consumers expecting their income to improve rose from 20.4 percent to 25.5 percent, while the proportion expecting a decrease declined, from 9.4 percent to 7.0 percent.

Consumer confidence surged to its highest level since 2004 towards the end of last year, but millennials now have less consumer confidence than their parents.

That’s according to data from the University of Michigan, Haver Analytics, and Deutsche Bank Global Research.

Optimism among those under 35 hasn’t dropped below that of those aged 55 and older in the last 60 years, since the University of Michigan began recording the consumer sentiment of these two generations.

Economic hardships

Millennials’ diminished confidence is likely rooted in the economic hardships many of them have faced as they came of age. Student loan debt has reached $1.4 trillion as the cost of college has soared.

Burdened by student loan debt and higher housing costs than their parents faced at their age, many young Americans are finding it almost impossible to spend “only” 30 percent of their income on rent or a mortgage, MarketWatch notes.

Additionally, for the first time in more than 130 years, millennials are more likely to live with their parents than with a spouse or partner in their own household. Researchers say that’s because younger Americans tend to get married later in life and/or have more student loan debt than they can feasibly manage while also paying for rent or a mortgage.

Higher cost of living

Peter Schiff, the chief executive of Euro Pacific Capital, believes the middle class has been gutted by over-regulation, an escalating cost of living, and stagnant wages.

“Families are smaller,” Schiff told MarketWatch. "They can’t afford to raise their kids or send them to college without taking out a lot of student debt. It’s too expensive. People are getting married later in life and many don’t get married at all."

But there may still be reason for optimism. Although many millennials have nothing saved for retirement, reports indicate that some millennials do have assets. A recent Bank of America report found that nearly half (47 percent) of working millennials have $15,000 or more in savings and 16 percent have $100,000 or more in savings.

Concern for the next generation

Americans appear to be concerned about the economic prospects of those who come after them. A 2017 Pew study found that just 37 percent of Americans believe today’s children will grow up to be better off financially than their parents.

Half (49 percent) of 18- to 29-year-olds believe that the next generation will be worse off, while more than half (61 percent) of Americans aged 50 and over believe the next generation will be worse off.

“The U.S. may be one of the richest countries in the world, with one of the highest per capita gross domestic products among major nations, but Americans are fairly pessimistic about economic prospects for their country’s children,” said the Pew study author, Bruce Stokes.

The Conference Board's monthly survey shows consumer confidence declined in March, following a February increase.

The survey came out the same day CNBC released its own survey, showing Americans' economic optimism is the highest it has been since the recession ended a decade ago.

The two surveys use different methodology, but it's rare to find them moving in opposite directions. The Conference Board employs Nielsen to conduct its research, based on a probability designed random sample. It found consumers in the sample have less confidence in both the present economic condition and the future.

Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, notes that confidence reached an 18-year high in February and has retreated only slightly.

“Despite the modest retreat in confidence, index levels remain historically high and suggest further strong growth in the months ahead,” Franco said.

Tempering their enthusiasm

In fact, consumers aren't turning sour on the economy; they may  be tempering their enthusiasm. The percentage of consumers who say business conditions will improve over the next six months fell from 25.0 percent to 23.0 percent. Those expecting conditions will get worse increased from 9.4 percent to 9.8 percent.

In the CNBC survey, a little over 50 percent of Americans rated the current economy as good or excellent, the same as February. CNBC says that's the first time at least half the respondents gave the economy such high marks in back-to-back polls in the 11-year history of the survey.

At the same time, 38 percent of Americans said they expect the economy to improve even more next year, the second-highest number since the recession.

The CNBC poll also tracked consumers' feeling about the economy with President Trump's job approval numbers, suggesting the President isn't benefiting from a surge in economic optimism. In fact, it found Trump's approval for handling the economy dipped from 47 percent in December to 45 percent.

Also, the survey showed that just 32 percent of Americans reported having more take-home pay following last year's tax cut. More than half said they saw no change on their pay stubs, while 16 percent said they weren't sure.

If you’ve ever opened a social media account or even bought something online, you can be pretty certain that your private information and preferences have been recorded by someone. While this data is often used by digital marketers to serve individuals with targeted ads, recent findings indicate that it can be put to much more nefarious purposes.

Focusing on practices in the United Kingdom, the Guardian reports that the gambling industry often takes data from third-party companies to serve online gambling ads to low-income consumers or those who have struggled with gambling addiction. One digital marketer detailed his experience of working with one such betting company.

“Third-party data providers allowed us to target their email lists with precision. Lower-income users were among the most successfully targeted segments,” he said. “We could also combine segments, ie we could target users who are on less than £25k a year, own a credit card and have three kids, via these providers.”

Targeting consumers

The third-party companies that the marketer mentions refer to online “data houses,” which collect personal information ranging from names, addresses, and phone numbers to credit card information and insurance details. With the financial information, online gambling sites are able to focus in on consumers based on what they earn.

All of this information is often collected through channels that consumers aren’t even aware of. For example, consumers who visit raffle sites for cash prizes, gifts, and weekly giveaways often provide basic personal information to apply for drawings. The raffle company hosting the site can then turn around and sell that data based on terms and conditions that users unknowingly agreed to.

From there, the information can be resold and funneled to gambling sites who are able to target certain demographics, such as consumers from lower-earning brackets or those who have expressed interest in gambling in the past.

"No moral compass"

The practices of these gambling sites bring up some interesting ethical implications when it comes to digital marketing. One could argue that serving a targeted ad to get someone to buy a product they could be interested in is harmless, but can the same be said for serving an ad to someone who is desperate or struggled with gambling in the past?

According to some consumers, the answer is a definite no. In the Guardian report, several people say that bookmakers are purposely taking advantage of its targeted audience to promote their business.

“It just reaffirms my belief that the betting industry has no moral compass and are capable of exploiting the vulnerable in order to obtain the last pound out of them,” said Carolyn Harris, Labor MP for Swansea East in the UK.

“They are actively seeking out those who can least afford to be involved in gambling. I’m absolutely aghast that they use these hostile techniques in order to suck the life out of people. If we were to offer free cocaine to an addict, they’d find it very difficult to decline. The betting industry knows this and they are by token doing exactly the same thing.”

After dipping slightly a month earlier, consumers' confidence in the economy is on the rise again.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 118.9 following its decline to 117.6 in May. While the Present Situation Index jumped to 146.3 from 140.6, the Expectations Index dipped from 102.3 last month to 100.6.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved to a nearly 16-year high (July 2001, 151.3),” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco. Overall, she added, “consumers anticipate the economy will continue expanding in the months ahead, but they do not foresee the pace of growth accelerating.”

The breakdown

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved in June. Those who say business conditions are “good” rose from 29.8% to 30.8%, while those think conditions are “bad” declined from 13.9% to 12.7%.

Their assessment of the labor market was also more positive. Those who see jobs as “plentiful” went from 30.0% to 32.8%; however, those who believe jobs are “hard to get” sipped to 18.0% from 18.3%.

There was less optimism about the short-term outlook, though. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months dropped from 21.5% to 20.4%. On the other hand, those expecting conditions to worsen went down marginally to 8.9% from 10.3%.

The labor market remains mixed. The proportion of consumers who think there will be more jobs in the months ahead rose to 19.3% from 18.6%; but those anticipating fewer jobs also increased -- going from 12.1% to 14.6%.

The percentage of consumers expecting an improvement in their income rose from 19.1% to 22.2%, as the proportion expecting a decline was also higher -- going to 9.2% from 8.7.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by information and analytics provider Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 15.

After posting a modest decline a month earlier, consumer confidence is up strongly in November.

According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index now stands at 107.1, a gain of 6.3 points from October.

The Present Situation Index jumped 7.2 points to 130.3, while the Expectations Index went from 86.0 last month to 91.7.

The increase puts consumer confidence at pre-recession levels. “A more favorable assessment of current conditions coupled with a more optimistic short-term outlook helped boost confidence,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco.

“And while the majority of consumers were surveyed before the presidential election,” she points out, “it appears from the small sample of post-election responses that consumers’ optimism was not impacted by the outcome. With the holiday season upon us, a more confident consumer should be welcome news for retailers.”

How consumers see it

The assessment by consumers of current conditions improved in November. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” went from 26.5% to 29.2%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” fell from 17.3% to 14.8%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was moderately more positive than last month. The percentage of consumers who think jobs are “plentiful” increased from 25.3% to 26.9%, while those who believe they’re “hard to get” was unchanged at 21.7%.

Consumers’ short-term outlook -- on balance -- was more optimistic in November. The percentage who look for business conditions to improve over the next six months fell from 16.4% to 15.3%; however, those expecting them to worsen also fell -- from 11.8% to 10.0%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was mixed as well. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 14.5%, but those anticipating fewer jobs fell from 16.6% to 13.8%.

When it comes to income, the percentage looking for an increase -- 17.5% -- was little changed from last month, while the proportion expecting a drop fell from 10.2% to 9.0%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 15.

Consumers' views on the economy improved in September for a second straight month.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index was up 2.3 points from August for a reading of 104.1. Within that, the Present Situation Index rose from 125.3 to 128.5, while the Expectations Index improved from 86.1 last month to 87.8.

“Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved, primarily the result of a more positive view of the labor market, said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco.

“Looking ahead, consumers are more upbeat about the short-term employment outlook, but somewhat neutral about business conditions and income prospects. Overall, consumers continue to rate current conditions favorably and foresee moderate economic expansion in the months ahead.”

Here and now

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in September. While those who say business conditions are “good” decreased from 30.3% to 27.4%, those who think conditions are “bad” fell from 18.2% to 16.2%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was more positive than last month. Those who believe jobs are “plentiful” inched up from 26.8% to 27.9%, and those who said jobs are “hard to get” dipped to 21.6% from 22.8%.

Looking ahead

There was an increase in optimism regarding the short-term outlook in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months slipped from 17.6% to 16.5%. However, those expecting business conditions to worsen also declined -- from 11.4% to 10.2%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more upbeat. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased from 14.4% to 15.1%, while those who think there will be fewer jobs was down 0.5% to 17.0%.

The percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to increase fell from 18.5% to 17.1%. At the same time, the proportion anticipating a decline dropped to 10.3% from 11.0%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 15.

Not much movement during July in the way consumers see the economy.

According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index was relatively unchanged this month after increasing in June. The Index now stands at 97.3, virtually the same as the 97.4 it registered the month before.

The Present Situation Index rose to 118.3, and the Expectations Index dipped to 83.3 from 84.6.

“Consumers were slightly more positive about current business and labor market conditions, suggesting the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco. “Expectations regarding business and labor market conditions, as well as personal income prospects, declined slightly as consumers remain cautiously optimistic about growth in the near-term.”

How they see it

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved slightly during the month, with those who see business conditions as “good” increasing from 26.8% to 28.1%. At the same time, though, those who said conditions are “bad” also rose, from 18.3% to 19.0%.

There wasn't much change in the way that consumers looked at the labor market. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” slipped from 23.2% to 23.0%, while those who believe they're hard “hard to get” also dropped -- from 23.7% to 22.3%.

The view of the short-term outlook was slightly less favorable in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell from 16.6% to 15.9%; those who say business conditions will get worse rose to 12.3% from 11.2% in June.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was a touch more favorable than last month. The proportion expecting more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 14.0%, while those anticipating fewer jobs fell 0.7% -- to 17.0%.

The percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to rise fell from 18.2% to 16.6%; however the proportion expecting to earn less also declined -- from 11.3% to 10.8%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 14.

A nice comeback for consumer confidence in June.

After falling nearly two points in May -- to 92.4 -- The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index® shot up more than five points this month to 98.0. The Present Situation Index jumped from 113.2 to 118.3, while the Expectations Index rose to 84.5 from 78.5.

“Consumers were less negative about current business and labor market conditions, but only moderately more positive, suggesting no deterioration in economic conditions, but no strengthening either,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco. “Expectations regarding business and labor market conditions, as well as personal income prospects, improved moderately. Overall, consumers remain cautiously optimistic about economic growth in the short-term.”

The current situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved in June. Those who said business conditions are “good” inched up from 26.1% to 26.9%, while those holding the opposing view dropped from 21.4% to 17.7%.

The assessment of the labor market was mixed. Consumers who think jobs are “plentiful” slipped from 24.5% to 23.4%. At the same time, those who believe jobs are “hard to get” also decreased -- from 24.5% to 23.3%.

Looking ahead

Optimism regarding the short-term outlook improved in June. Those who expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 15.0% to 16.8%, while those looking for conditions to get worse was down to 11.4% from 11.7%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more favorable than in May. The percentage anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 12.5% to 14.2%, while those saying there will be fewer jobs decreased dipped from 18.2% to 17.9%.

The proportion of consumers who expect their incomes to increase advanced to 18.2% from 16.5%, while the proportion expecting a reduction fell 1.1% -- to 11.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 16.

Another drop -- the second in as many months -- for consumer confidence.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, fell to 92.6 in May from 94.7 a month earlier.

Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index were lower, dropping from 117.1 to 112.9, and 79.7 to 79.0, respectively.

A large part of the decline was due to consumers rating current conditions less favorably than in April. In addition, “Expectations declined further,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, “as consumers remain cautious about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Thus, they continue to expect little change in economic activity in the months ahead.”

How they see it

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions weakened in May, with the percentage seeing business conditions as “good” improving from 24.2% to 25.9%, but those saying business conditions are “bad” also increasing -- from 18.2% to 21.6%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was less favorable. The proportion who think jobs are “plentiful” was virtually unchanged at 24.3%; however, those who say they are “hard to get” rose from 22.8% to 24.4%.

Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook than last month. Those who expect business conditions to improve over the next six months rose from 13.8% to 15.1%, while those expecting them to worsen also rose -- from 10.8% to 11.6%.

The outlook for the labor market also was less favorable. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead was roughly the same at 12.8%; those anticipating fewer jobs jumped from 16.7% to 18.1%.

The proportion of consumers who see their incomes rising improved from 15.8% to 16.2%, while those expecting a reduction held at 12.4%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 19.

Personal income, spending

The Commerce Department reports that personal income increased $69.8 billion, or 0.4% in April, while disposable personal income (DPI) -- what's left after personal current taxes -- rose $63.5 billion, or 0.5%.

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE), meanwhile, increased $119.2 billion, or 1.0%.

Compensation

Wages and salaries were up $38.6 billion, after rising $30.7 billion in March. With that, private wages and salaries increased $37.2 billion, and government wages and salaries increased $1.4 billion.

Personal outlays and saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- soared to $121.7 billion in April, compared with an increase of just $1.8 billion in March.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was down to $751.1 billion in April from $809.4  billion the month before. As a result, the personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- dropped to 5.4%, from 5.9%.

The full report is on the Commerce Department website.

Expectations for the economy in the months ahead have dimmed, sending The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index lower in April.

After posting a modest increase in March, the Index dipped 1.9 to 94.2. While the Present Situation Index rose from 114.9 to 116.4, the Expectations Index dropped from 83.6 to 79.3 in April.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved, suggesting no slowing in economic growth,” noted Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, their expectations regarding the short-term have moderated, suggesting they do not foresee any pickup in momentum.”

The current situation

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved somewhat, with those who think business conditions are “good” dipping from 24.9% to 23.2%. At the same time, those who see business conditions as “bad” declined as well -- from 19.2% to 18.1%.

Their appraisal of the labor market was mixed as well. Those who believe jobs are “plentiful” fell from 25.4% to 24.1%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” also dropped from 25.2% to 22.7%.

Looking ahead

Consumers were less optimistic about the short-term outlook in April than they were last month. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased from 14.7% to 13.4%, while those expecting them to worsen rose to 11.0% from 9.5%.

The outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. Those who anticipate more jobs in the months ahead slipped from 13.0% to 12.2%, while those who think there will be fewer jobs edged up from 16.3% to 17.2%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase dropped 1.0% to 15.9%; those expecting to see their incomes go down also declined -- from 12.3% to 11.2%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 14.

It appears spring has brought with it a little consumer optimism about the course of the economy.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index has rebounded a bit from its February decline. After slipping to 94.0 last month, the Index now stands at 96.2.

The Present Situation Index dipped from 115.0 to 113.5, while the Expectations Index rose to 84.7 in March from 79.9.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions posted a moderate decline, while expectations regarding the short-term turned more favorable as last month’s turmoil in the financial markets appears to have abated,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators. “On balance,” she added, “consumers do not foresee the economy gaining any significant momentum in the near-term, nor do they see it worsening.”

Current conditions

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions eased in March, with those saying business conditions were “good” slipped from 26.5% to 24.9%. On the other hand,, those who said conditions are “bad” edged down from 19.0% to 18.8%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” rose from 22.8% to 25.4%, while consumers who believe jobs are “hard to get” also rose -- to 26.6% from 23.6%.

The outlook

Consumers were more optimistic about the short-term outlook than they were in February. The percentage expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months was up moderately to 15.0% from 14.5%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen was down sharply from 11.6% to 9.2%.

The outlook for the labor market was more favorable as well. Those who expect to see more jobs in the months ahead increased slightly from 12.2% to 12.9%, while those who think there will be fewer jobs fell from 17.7% to 16.3%.

The proportion of consumers expecting higher incomes dipped from 17.7% to 17.2%, while the proportion who believe their paychecks will shrink edged up from 11.6% to 11.8%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 17.

For the first time in six years customer satisfaction with dealer service related to an automotive recall has declined, according to J.D. Power.

The drop, which came amid a record number of recalls, is the result of customers feeling that dealers don't give the same level of attention to recall work as they do to non-recall maintenance and repairs.

The firm's U.S. Customer Service Index (CSI) study measures customer satisfaction with service at a franchised dealer facility for maintenance or repair work among owners and lessees of 1- to 5-year-old vehicles.

The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) reports that more than 51 million vehicles were recalled last year. And, as recall numbers soared, customer satisfaction with recall service dropped to 781 on a 1,000-point scale in 2016 -- a drop of eight points. Satisfaction among customers with non-recall servicing averages 809.

Shoddy treatment

Compared with customers having non-recall work performed, those having recall work done are less likely to have their vehicle returned to them cleaner and with the same settings as when they brought it in, and less likely to be contacted by the dealer after the service is complete.

"While it may be tempting for dealers to focus more on repair or maintenance work, recall customers represent both an opportunity and a risk to the brand and dealer," said Chris Sutton, vice president, U.S. automotive retail practice at J.D. Power. "There is a need for consistency in the service experience, regardless of the reason for the visit. A lack of consistency, particularly for recall work, can damage customers' perceptions of the brand and negatively impact their likelihood to recommend and repurchase the brand."

Nameplate rankings

Audi ranks highest in satisfaction with dealer service among luxury brands, with a score of 874. It's followed by Lexus (869), Cadillac (863), Mercedes-Benz (857), and Jaguar and Lincoln in a tie (856 each).

MINI ranks highest in satisfaction with dealer service among mass market brands, at 858. Buick (849), GMC (830), Chevrolet (818), and Hyundai (814) round out the top five.

Consumers have turned bearish about the economic situation.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, after posting a moderate gain in January, turned downward this month, dipping from 97.8 to 92.2.

The decrease was led by the Present Situation Index, which fell from 116.6 to 112.1, and the Expectations Index, which dropped to 78.9 from January's reading of 85.3.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions weakened, primarily due to a less favorable assessment of business conditions,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ short-term outlook grew more pessimistic, with consumers expressing greater apprehension about business conditions, their personal financial situation, and to a lesser degree, labor market prospects.

Franco said continued turmoil in the financial markets may be rattling consumers, but their assessment of current conditions suggests the economy will continue to expand at a moderate pace in the near-term.”

Consumers’ assessments

The percentage of consumers saying business conditions were “good” decreased from 27.7% to 26.0%, while those who think they're “bad” increased from 18.8% to 19.8%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also negative, with those who say jobs are “plentiful” falling from 23.0% to 22.1%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” rose to 24.2% from 23.6%.

Consumers were more pessimistic about the short-term outlook than in January. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months dropped from 15.9% to 14.6%, while those who look for conditions to worsen jumped to 12.0% from 10.7%.

Labor market outlook gloomy

Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 13.4% to 12.2%, while those expecting fewer jobs inched up from 17.0% to 17.2%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase fell from 18.6% to 17.2%, while the proportion expecting a reduction rose from 10.7% to 12.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 11.

After increasing in December, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index was up moderately again in January, rising 1.8 points to 98.1. While the Present Situation Index was unchanged at 116.4, the Expectations Index advanced from 83.0 to 85.9.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions held steady, while their expectations for the next six months improved moderately,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco. “For now, consumers do not foresee the volatility in financial markets as having a negative impact on the economy.”

Little change seen in attitudes

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was relatively flat in January. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” was virtually unchanged at 27.2%, while those who said business conditions are “bad” declined slightly from 18.9% to 18.5%.

Their assessment of the labor market was modestly more positive. The proportion who see jobs as “plentiful” fell from 24.2% to 22.8%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” dipped to 23.4% from 24.5%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook improved somewhat. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to get better over the next six months rose from 14.5% to 16.2%, while those expecting them to worsen edged down from 10.8% to 10.3%.

The outlook for the labor market was also slightly more optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 12.4% to 13.2%, while those expecting fewer jobs dropped slightly from 16.8% to 16.5%.

The proportion of consumers looking for their incomes to increase improved from 16.3% to 18.1%. However, the proportion expecting a reduction in income also increased -- from 9.5% to 10.8%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 14.

After posting a moderate gain in September, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index retreated this month.

The index now stands at 97.6, a loss of five points from the previous month, while the Present Situation Index fell from 120.3 to 112.1, and the Expectations Index edged down to 88.0 from 90.8 in September.

“Consumers were less positive in their assessment of present-day conditions, in particular the job market, and were moderately less optimistic about the short-term outlook,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco, adding, “despite the decline, consumers still rate current conditions favorably, but they do not anticipate the economy strengthening much in the near-term.”

Consumers' appraisal

Consumers’ view of current conditions was somewhat less positive in October. Those saying business conditions are “good” dipped from 28.1% to 26.5%, while those who see conditions as “bad” rose from 16.4% to 18.3%. Respondents were also less upbeat about the job market. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” decreased from 24.8% to 22.2%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 25.8% from 24.9%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook was more subdued in October. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months was unchanged at 18.1%, while those who said business conditions will worsen inched up to 10.6% from 10.4%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was slightly less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined from 14.9% to 14.5%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose from 15.9% to 16.9%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to rise slipped from 18.7% to 18.0%, while the proportion who believe there will be a decline increased from 9.9% to 10.7%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 15.

After posting a substantial gain last month, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index moved moderately higher in September and now stands at 103.0.

The Present Situation Index jumped from 115.8 to 121.1 this month, while the Expectations Index edged down to 91.0 from 91.6 in August.

“Consumers’ more positive assessment of current conditions fueled this month’s increase,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board, “and drove the Present Situation Index to an 8-year high. Consumers’ expectations for the short-term outlook, however, remained relatively flat, although there was a modest improvement in income expectations. Thus, while consumers view current economic conditions more favorably, they do not foresee growth accelerating in the months ahead.”

The consumers' eye view

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was more positive in September. Those who say business conditions are “good” increased from 23.7% to 28%, while those who see them as “bad” dipped from 17.8% to 16.7%.

The view of the job market was mixed. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” rose from 22.1% to 25.1%. At the same time, those who believe jobs are “hard to get” also rose from 21.7% to 24.3%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook was little changed. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 16.6% to 17.9%, but those expecting business conditions to worsen also increased -- from 9.1% to 10.3%.

The outlook for the labor market was mixed. Those who think there will be more jobs in the months ahead was virtually unchanged at 15.0%, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose from 14.5% to 15.8%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to rise improved from 16.2% to 19.1%, while the proportion expecting a decline inched up from 9.8% to 10.1%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 17.

Consumers are feeling a whole lot better about the economy than they did in July.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, which which lost ground last month, rebounded in August and now stands at 101.5. The Present Situation Index shot from 104.0 to 115.1, while the Expectations Index improved to 92.5 from 82.3 a month earlier.

“Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was considerably more upbeat, primarily due to a more favorable appraisal of the labor market,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The uncertainty expressed last month about the short-term outlook has dissipated and consumers are once again feeling optimistic about the near future. Income expectations, however, were little improved.”

How they see it

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was considerably more favorable in August. Those saying business conditions are “good” dipped slightly from 23.4% to 23.2%. Those who think business conditions are “bad” dropped from 18.2% to 17.6%.

There was a more positive view of the job market. Those who believe jobs are “plentiful” rose 2% -- to 21.9%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” plunged from 27.4% to 21.9%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook also improved. The percentage of those expecting business conditions to get better over the next six months increased from 15.3% to 15.8%, while those expecting it to worsen declined from 10.3% to 8.3%.

The outlook for the labor market was more upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead rose to 14.6% from 13.7%, while those who think there will be fewer jobs was down sharply from 19.0% to 13.6%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined moderately from 17.0% to 16.2%, while the proportion expecting a decline dropped from 11.3% to 10.0%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cut-off date for the preliminary results was August 13.

After showing some improvement in June, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index posted a decline in July. It now stands at 90.9 after rising to 99.8 the previous month.

The Present Situation Index dipped moderately from 110.3 last month to 107.4, while the Expectations Index plummeted to 79.9 from 92.8 in June.

“Consumers continue to assess current conditions favorably, but their short-term expectations deteriorated this month,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “A less optimistic outlook for the labor market, and perhaps the uncertainty and volatility in financial markets prompted by the situation in Greece and China, appears to have shaken consumers’ confidence. Overall, the Index remains at levels associated with an expanding economy and a relatively confident consumer.”

The consumers-eye view

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was somewhat less favorable in July. Those who see business conditions as “good” fell from 26.1% to 24.2%. However, those who believe conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 17.9%.

Consumers were slightly less positive about the job market. Those who said jobs are “plentiful” dropped to 20.7% from 21.3%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” inched up from 26.1% to 26.7%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook was down sharply in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months declined from 17.9% to 14.7%; those who see conditions worsening rose from 10.2% to 10.7%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was even less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 17.1% to 13.1%, while those expecting fewer jobs jumped from 15.2% to 20.0%. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes edged down from 17.6% to 17.0%, while the proportion expecting a decline rose slightly from 10.6% to 11.2%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 16.

May was good; June was even better.

After posting a modest gain the month before, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index shot up in June to 101.4 from 94.6. Also encouraging was an increase in the Present Situation Index to 111.6 from 107.1, and an advance in the Expectations Index from 86.2 last month to 94.6.

“Over the past two months, consumers have grown more confident about the current state of business and employment conditions,” said Conference Board Director of Economic Indicators Lynn Franco. “In addition, they are now more optimistic about the near-term future, although sentiment regarding income prospects is little changed. Overall, consumers are in considerably better spirits and their renewed optimism could lead to a greater willingness to spend in the near-term.”

A closer look

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved again in June. Those who say business conditions are “good” increased from 24.7% to 26.4%, while those who see them as “bad” was virtually unchanged at 17.8%.

Consumers were also more positive about the job market. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” rose to 21.4% from 20.6%, while those with an opposing view fell from 27.2% to 25.7%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook also increased in June. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months jumped from 16.0% to 18.5%, while those who believe conditions will worsen dropped from 11.3% to 9.8%.

Jobs & income

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead went up from 14.7% to 17.8%, while those expecting fewer jobs slipped to 15.1% from 16.6%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes will rise was pretty much unchanged at 17.5%, while those who think there'll be a decline edged down slightly from 10.7% to 10.2%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 18.

After posting a decline in April, The Conference Board' Consumer Confidence Index increased moderately this month.

It now stands at 95.4 -- up 1.1 from the previous month's reading. The Present Situation Index rose 3 points -- to 108.1, while the Expectations Index edged down to 86.9 from 87.1.

“After a three-month slide, the Present Situation Index increased, propelled by a more positive assessment of the labor market,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Expectations, however, were relatively flat following a steep decline in April. While current conditions in the second quarter appear to be improving, consumers still remain cautious about the short-term outlook.”

Gauging the consumer view

Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions improved in May. Those saying business conditions are “good” edged down from 25.5% to 25.2 percent. However, those who think they're “bad” also decreased -- from 19.2 % to 17.4%.

The assessment of the job market was mixed. Those who see jobs as “plentiful” rose from 19.0% to 20.7%, while those saying they are “hard to get” rose from 25.9% to 27.3%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook edged lower in May. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months inched up from 15.4% to 15.6%, while those who predict business conditions will worsen also increased -- from 9.1% to 10.8%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market, however, improved. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 13.8% to 14.6%, while those who look for fewer jobs declined from 16.4% to 15.5%.

The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes was unchanged at 17.4%, while the proportion expecting a decline rose slightly from 10.8% to 11.1%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 15.

After posting a decline in February, consumers' outlook for the economy brightened during March.

The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index rose two and a-half points last month and now stands at 101.3. The Expectations Index was up 6 points -- to 96.0 in March, while the Present Situation Index, dropped from 112.1 in February to 109.1.

The March increase, said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, “was driven by an improved short-term outlook for both employment and income prospects; consumers were less upbeat about business conditions.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions declined for the second consecutive month, suggesting that growth may have softened in the first quarter, she said, adding it “doesn’t appear to be gaining any significant momentum heading into the spring months.”

The consumers' assessment

The view of consumers of present-day conditions turned moderately less favorable for a second straight month. The percentage saying business conditions are “good” was unchanged at 26.7%, while those who see business conditions as “bad” increased from 16.7% to 19.4%.

Consumers were mixed in their perceptions of the job market. The proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” edged up from 20.3% to 20.6%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” also edged up from 25.1% to 25.4%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook, which had declined in February, rebounded last month. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased slightly -- from 17.6% to 16.7%; however, those expecting business conditions to worsen also fell, from 8.9% to 8.0%.

The outlook for the labor market saw stronger gains. Those who expect there will be more jobs in the months ahead jumped from 13.8% to 15.5%, while those expecting fewer jobs declined from 14.8% to 13.5%.

The proportion of consumers who think their incomes will improve rose from 16.4% to 18.4%, while the proportion expecting to have less money in their pockets declined from 10.8 percent to 9.9 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 19.

After hitting it's highest level in 7 years during January, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in February.

The Index now stands at 96.4 down 7.4 from January, with the Present Situation Index dropping to 110.2 from 113.9, and the Expectations Index declining to 87.2 from 97.0 in January.

Still on the upside

“After a large gain in January, consumer confidence retreated in February, but still remains at pre-recession levels,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current conditions remained positive,” she added, “but short-term expectations declined. While the number of consumers expecting conditions to deteriorate was virtually unchanged, fewer consumers expect conditions to improve, prompting a less upbeat outlook.

Franco says despite this month’s decline, “consumers remain confident that the economy will continue to expand at the current pace in the months ahead.”

How they see it

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was moderately less favorable in February than in January. Those saying business conditions are “good” fell from 28.2% to 26.0%, however those who think business conditions are “bad” declined from 17.3% to 17.0%.

Consumers were also somewhat less positive in their assessment of the job market, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” dipped from 20.7% to 20.5%, and those who see jobs as “hard to get” rising from 24.6% to 26.2%.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook was considerably less positive in February. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months dropped from 18.9% to 16.1%, while those who expect conditions to worsen increased from 8.2% to 8.7%.

The outlook for the labor market was also less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell from 17.3% to 13.4%. However, those think there will be fewer jobs declined from 14.8% to 14.3%. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes dropped to 15.1% from 19.5%. The percentage expecting a decline rose from 10.8% to 12.0%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 12.

Consumers seem to be felling their oats.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, which had inched higher in December, rose sharply this month. The Index now stands at 102.9 -- up 9.8 from December. The Present Situation Index rose to 112.6 from 99.9, while the Expectations Index increased to 96.4 from 88.5.

With the big January increase, consumer confidence is now at its highest level since August 2007. “A more positive assessment of current business and labor market conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers also expressed a considerably higher degree of optimism regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, as well as their earnings.”

Through consumers' eyes

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions was considerably more favorable in January than last month. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased from 24.7% to 28.1%, while those who describe them as “bad” decreased from 18.9% to 16.8%. They were also much more positive in their assessment of the job market. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” rose from 17.2% to 20.5%. Those who said they're “hard to get” dipped to 25.7% from 27.3%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook was more positive. Consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months rose from 17.8% to 18.4%, while those expecting them to worsen dropped from 9.9% to 7.7%.

The outlook for the labor market also showed improvement. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased from 14.6% to 16.7%, while those who see fewer jobs was down to 15.0% from 16.5%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to grow surged from 16.2% to 20.0%, while those who think they'll make less money rose from 10.2% to 11.3%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch.

The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 15.

After posting a decline in November, consumer confidence in the economy showed some improvement this month.

According to the Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index rose to 92.6 in December from 91.0 the previous month. The Present Situation Index shot from 93.7 to 98.6, while the Expectations Index dipped to 88.5 from 89.3.

The rebound in consumer in December was “propelled by a considerably more favorable assessment of current economic and labor market conditions,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “As a result,” she adds, “the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level since February 2008. Consumers were moderately less optimistic about the short-term outlook in December, but even so, they are more confident at year-end than they were at the beginning of the year.”

Favorable current conditions

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was considerably more favorable in December. Those who said business conditions are “good” was unchanged at 24.8 percent, while those who think they are “bad” fell from 21.8% to 19.6%.

Consumers' assessment of the job market was more positive, with those who believe jobs are “plentiful” increased from 16.2% to 17.1%, and those said jobs are “hard to get” fell from 28.7% to 27.7%.

Optimism about the short-term outlook eased a bit this month. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months edged slipped from 18.3% to 18.0%, while those expecting things to get worse dropped from 10.4% to 10.1%.

Jobs and income outlook

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was marginally less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased from 15.5% to 14.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose from 16.1% to 16.9%. People expecting growth in their incomes fell moderately from 16.9% to 16.4%; however the proportion expecting a decline also dropped -- from 11.0% to 10.0%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 16.

Consumers appear to be a little skittish heading into the Christmas shopping season.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, which had rebounded in October from a September decline,fell again in November.

The Index now stands at 88.7 down 5.4 points from October. The Present Situation Index dropped from 94.4 to 91.3, while the Expectations Index posted a 6.8-point plunge -- to 87.0.

A dip in optimism

“Consumers were somewhat less positive about current business conditions and the present state of the job market; moreover, their optimism in the short-term outlook in both areas has waned,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “However, income expectations were virtually unchanged and gas prices remain low, which should help boost holiday sales.”

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions was moderately less favorable this month than in October. The proportion saying business conditions are “good” slipped from 24.7% to 24.0%, while those who think business conditions are “bad” increased from 21.3% to 22.4%.

Consumers also saw the job market as slightly less favorable, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” falling from 16.5% to 16.0%, and those who believe jobs are “hard to get” edging up from 29.0% to 29.2%.

Consumer optimism, which had improved last month, retreated in November. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months dropped from 19.4% to 17.6%, while those looking for a worsening jumped from 8.9% to 10.7%.

The outlook for the labor market was also less optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead dropped 1% -- to 15.0%, while those who see fewer jobs rose from 14.1% to 16.4%. The proportion of consumers expecting growth in their incomes slipped from 16.7% to 16.3%, while the proportion expecting a drop in income was virtually unchanged at 11.4% versus 11.3% in October.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 13.

After posting a decline in September, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index jumped 6.5 this month to stand at 94.5.

Of particular note were increases in the Present Situation Index, which edged up from 93.0 to 93.7, and the Expectations Index which posted a sharp gain from 8.6.4 to 95.0.

Brighter prospects

“A more favorable assessment of the current job market and business conditions contributed to the improvement in consumers’ view of the present situation,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead, consumers have regained confidence in the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, and are more optimistic about their future earnings potential. With the holiday season around the corner, this boost in confidence should be a welcome sign for retailers.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions was moderately more favorable in October than in September. While the proportion saying conditions are “good” inched up from 24.2% to 24.5%, those claiming business conditions are “bad” also increased slightly, from 21.2% to 21.7%.

Consumers’ assessment of the job market improved moderately, with those saying jobs are “plentiful” increasing from 16.3% to 16.5%, and those who think jobs are “hard to get” declining slightly from 29.4% to 29.1%.

Rising optimism

Consumers’ optimism, which had declined considerably in September, improved in October. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased from 19.0% to 19.6%, while those expecting them to worsen fell from 11.4% to 9.3%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market also improved markedly. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 16.8% from 16.0%, while those anticipating fewer jobs fell from 16.9% to 13.9%.

The proportion of consumers looking for growth in their incomes rose from 16.9% in September to 17.7% in October, while those saying incomes will drop fell from 13.4% to 11.6%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 16.

Consumers are earning more money -- and spending it.

According to the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index, which tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, consumer outlays were higher in September for a second straight month.

The index, which is made up of 4 components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- increased to 4.21 from 4.11 in August.

“A rise in real wages boosted the index this month,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Although unemployment claims remain at the level of the previous month, seeing them continue to hover around the 300,000 mark is a positive sign for the labor market.

“The uptick in wages -- although only of one month’s duration -- is also consistent with the improving labor market,” he continued. “If employment and wages continue this positive trajectory, consumers are likely to respond with more confidence and higher spending.”

Index highlights

• Tax burden: The tax rate has been effectively unchanged with a marginal increase to 11.8%.
• Initial unemployment claims: Claims were back over the 300,000 mark to 303,000, but still were down 10.3% from the same period last year.
• Real wages: Real hourly wages were up 0.5% from the previous month as well as the same period last year -- increasing to $8.86 in September.
• Real median new home price: New home prices fell 1.4% from the prior month to $116,000, but prices are still 5.9% higher than the same period last year.

Looking ahead

Steady economic improvements influencing consumer spending point to a more optimistic outlook for the year-end shopping season. “With the holidays beginning, an economy on a more even keel will be a welcome sign for retailers,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader. “Deloitte is forecasting a 4 to 4.5% increase in overall holiday sales this year, as consumers’ spending levels are likely to increase on the heels of personal income, job and stock market gains. Holiday cheer may be making a comeback as families look to release pent-up demand and regain confidence in the economy.”

Self-reports of spending by U.S. consumers dropped to an average of $87 in September -- a decline of $7 from both July and August. At the same time, though, the report by Gallup found spending last month was $3 higher than it was last year.

These findings are based on daily tracking interviews with more than 14,000 consumers, who were asked to report the total amount they spent "yesterday" in stores, gas stations, restaurants, or online -- not counting home and vehicle purchases, or normal monthly bills -- giving an indication of their discretionary spending.

Nothing to see here

The drop in spending Gallup found in September is not unusual. Since 2010, spending has dropped each year from August and September, although the size of the drop has varied. The consistent declines may be the result of increased spending in August on back-to-school purchases and summer vacations.

September's $7 drop in average spending is comparable with past August-to-September drops. Last year, the drop was $11 -- from $95 in August to $84 in September.

Monthly averages in self-reported spending so far in 2014 have generally exceeded average spending for the corresponding month in 2013, and especially so for 2009 to 2012, when averages were generally in the $60 to $70 range. However, this year's monthly averages are still lower than the nearly $100 averages seen in 2008.

Affluent consumers pull back

Daily self-reports of spending among upper-income consumers (those with annual household incomes of $90,000 a year or more) fell last month for the second month in a row -- to average $140 a day -- well below the 12-month high of $190 in July, and near February's 12-month low of $135.

Spending among middle- and lower-income consumers -- which tends to be much more stable -- dropped only slightly -- from $80 in August to an average of $77 in September. Reported spending among this group in the past 12 months has fallen into the narrow range of $84 (in December 2013) to $69 (in January 2014).

What’s it mean?

While consumers' average self-reported daily spending dropped in September, decreases from August to September are common, and average September spending this year exceeded September spending last year. With consumer spending a major driver of the U.S. economy, changes in average spending can reflect how the economy is doing.

Spending has generally increased since 2010, during the aftermath of the recession. And, compared with September 2013, spending increased this September. However, the consecutive two-month drop in spending among upper-income consumers could be a troubling sign, as this group generally has higher discretionary spending than those in the middle- and lower-income brackets.

After posting an increase in August, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index slumped in September, dropping from 93.4 to 80.6.

In addition, the Present Situation Index fell to 89.4 from 93.9, and the Expectations Index dropped more than 9 points -- to 83.7.

The September retreat came after 4 consecutive months of improvement.

“A less positive assessment of the current job market, most likely due to the recent softening in growth, was the sole reason for the decline in consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead, consumers were less confident about the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market, and somewhat mixed regarding their future earnings potential. All told, consumers expect economic growth to ease in the months ahead.”

Not a lot of optimism

Consumers assessed current conditions less favorably in September versus a month ago. Their view of business conditions was virtually unchanged, with those saying conditions are “good” falliung slightly from 23.5 to 23.4%; those who think business conditions are “bad” held constant at 21.3%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the job market declined more appreciably, with the proportion stating jobs are “plentiful” dropped from 17.6% to 15.1%. Those who believe jobs are “hard to get” was barely changed, at 30.1% versus 30.0 percent in August.

Consumers’ optimism about the short-term outlook declined considerably in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months fell from 20.8% to 18.6%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen rose from 9.9% to 12.0%.

The outlook for the labor market likewise took a downturn. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell from 17.8% to 15.2%, while those expecting fewer jobs rose from 15.2% to 17.8%.

The proportion of consumers looking for their incomes to grow rose in September to 16.8%, from 15.5% in August. However, the proportion expecting a drop in income also rose -- to 13.4% from 11.6% a month ago.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 18.

In what may be a sign of better things to come, the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index (Index) picked up in August. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

“A notable decrease in initial unemployment insurance claims helped push the Index up,” said Deloitte Senior U.S. Economist Daniel Bachman. “An improving labor market can be a boon to consumer confidence. If these trends continue, there is a strong likelihood that we could see an acceleration of economic growth in the latter part of the year.”

The Index, which ecompasses 4 components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- increased to 3.96 this month from 3.70 last month.

“The uptick in the Index suggests optimism as retailers anticipate the all important holiday shopping season,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and retail and distribution sector leader. “These economic fundamentals along with lower gas prices may encourage consumers to pick up their spending in the months ahead.”

Retailers, Paul said, should take a closer look at inventory with this optimism in mind to get an early read on what’s hot -- both in store and online, in case they need to pull some last minute levers to replenish merchandise. “Retailers should also assess their cyber security levels as attackers may be especially motivated to be more aggressive during peak periods like the holiday season,” Paul continued, adding, “retailers will not only need to be vigilant about suspicious activity, but prepared to quickly address and recover from any incidents.”

Index highlights

• Tax burden: The tax rate continues a steady hold at 11.7%, showing a marginal increase from the prior month.
• Initial unemployment claims: Claims decreased notably to 296,000, and furthermore were down 10.5% from the same period last year.
• Real Wages: Real hourly wages increased slightly to $8.80 and were up a slight 0.3% up from the same period last year.
• Real median new home price: New home prices continue to fluctuate as they fell 3.% from the prior month -- to $113,000.

Not much movement in the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index during July. In fact, the Index was effectively unchanged in during that month and was relatively flat over the past three months. The Index tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending.

“There were only small movements among the key components of the Index to drive a change in consumers’ spending plans,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Home prices dipped slightly, and real wages grew at a slower pace compared with the last 12 months. On a positive note, the tax rate declined slightly. Despite some fluctuation recently, unemployment insurance claims are still hovering in the 300,000 range.”

The Index, which is made up of 4 components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices – fell to 3.56 from 3.74 in June.

Consumer uncertainty

Continued economic fluctuations in areas such as housing and unemployment are cited as the main reasons that consumers are still hesitant to spend robustly. “Aside from a slow economic recovery, we’ve seen other factors challenging retailers -- particularly in our just released back-to-school and back-to-college studies,” said Alison Paul, vice chairman of Deloitte, and retail and distribution sector leader.

“Consumers” she added, “are planning to shop smarter, often buying items on a just as-needed basis. As a result, the traditionally anticipated back-to-school shopping trip is not the event it once was. The convenience of 24/7 online access allows parents -- and students -- to shop any time, not just during the traditional mid- to late-summer back-to-school period.”

Given these factors, Paul says retailers need to remain sharp by making their merchandise and offers extremely attractive to finish the back-to-school season strong.

Index highlights

• Tax burden: The tax rate continues a steady hold at 11.7%t showing a marginal decrease from prior month.
• Initial unemployment claims: Claims rose slightly this month to 315,000, but are still down 8.3% from the same period last year.
• Real wages: Real hourly wages dropped slightly to $8.79 this month, but remain at a higher level compared with the past 12 months.
• Real median new home price: New home prices continue to fluctuate, falling 3.5% from the prior month to $115,000.

The bullish attitude among the nation's consumers continues.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index rose more than 2 points in August -- to 92.4. While the Present Situation Index increased to 94.6 from 87.9, the Expectations Index edged lower -- to 90.9 from 91.9 in July.

“Consumer confidence increased for the fourth consecutive month as improving business conditions and robust job growth helped boost consumers’ spirits,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead, consumers were marginally less optimistic about the short-term outlook compared to July, primarily due to concerns about their earnings. Overall, however, they remain quite positive about the short-term outlooks for the economy and labor market.”

The consumers' view

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions continued to improve through August. Those who believe business conditions are “good” edged up to 23.9% from 23.3 percent, while those who see business conditions are “bad” declined to 21.5% from 22.8%.

Consumers’ assessment of the job market was also more positive. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 18.2% from 15.6%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” declined marginally to 30.6% from 30.9%.

Consumers were slightly less optimistic in August about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months held steady at 20.4%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen fell to 10.2% from 12.1%.

However, they were somewhat mixed about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell to 17.0% from 18.7%, although those anticipating fewer jobs also declined to 15.8% from 16.6%.

Fewer consumers expect their incomes to grow -- 15.5% in August versus 17.7% in July, while those expecting a drop in their incomes rose inched higher to --11.9% from 11.1%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 14.

After improving in June, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index increased again in July.

The index picked up 4.5 points during the month and now stands at 90.9. The Present Situation Index rose to 88.3 from 86.3, while the Expectations Index jumped 6.3 points -- to 92.7.

Consumer confidence increased for the third consecutive month and, according to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, is now at its highest level since October 2007 (95.2).

“Strong job growth helped boost consumers’ assessment of current conditions,” she said, “while brighter short-term outlooks for the economy and jobs, and to a lesser extent personal income, drove the gain in expectations. Recent improvements in consumer confidence, in particular expectations, suggest the recent strengthening in growth is likely to continue into the second half of this year.”

A mixed showing

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions improved in July. Those who said business conditions are “good” edged down to 22.7% from 23.4%, while those saying they are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 22.7%.

The appraisal of the job market was more favorable. Consumers who think jobs are “plentiful” increased to 15.9% from 14.6%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” was unchanged at 30.7%.

Growing optimism

Consumers’ expectations were brighter in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next 6 months increased to 20.2% from 18.4%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen held at 11.%.

Consumers were more positive about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased 2.8% -- to 19.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 16.4% from 18.4%.

Slightly more consumers expect their incomes to grow -- 17.3% in July versus 16.7% in June, while those expecting a drop in their incomes slipped to 11.0% from 11.4%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 17.

Consumers pulled back a little during May, according to the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index.

The index, which tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, and is made up of four components -- tax burden, initial unemployment claims, real wages and real home prices -- decreased to 3.65 from 3.91 in April.

“Housing prices are the primary contributor to this month’s dip in the index,” said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s senior U.S. economist. “Real wages also declined for the second straight month, but static unemployment claims and tax rate slightly offset the other categories. The stalled housing market may weigh on consumers, although the overall picture remains positive.”

Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and Retail & Distribution sector leader, says the sluggish pace of the economy recovery challenges retailers to think differently about what drives the most revenue.”

“Retailers should continue to pursue non-traditional methods to reach their most valuable customers, who tend to be those who use digital devices most often,” she said, adding “Deloitte’s latest research, The New Digital Divide, indicates 22% of consumers spend more as a result of using digital, and that digitally-savvy shoppers who come to your store frequently are more likely to use digital devices and do so at an increasing rate.”

Paul also noted that, with the summer now underway, certain retailers can take full advantage of the seasonal increase in traffic by digitally influencing consumers.

For example, in home improvement stores, digital devices influence 42 cents of every dollar spent in the store, higher than the average of 36 cents of every dollar across all categories, according to Deloitte’s research.

Category breakdown

• Tax burden: The tax rate is holding consistently at 11.8% -- the sixth straight month at this level.
• Initial unemployment claims: Applications fell 0.2% from prior month to 320,250, and show a 6.5% drop from the same period last year.
• Real wages: Real hourly wages dropped 0.1% to $8.82 this month, but are still higher over the past year.
• Real median new home price: New home prices took a 2.3% dip -- to $117,000 in May following a strong increase the month before, which could be directly correlated to the increase in home improvement spending in the past year.

U.S. consumers, it appears, are in the summer doldrums.

Gallup says its U.S. Economic Confidence Index remained at -16 last week – the third straight week at that level. The index dropped to -13 at the start of June, them dipped to -16 in the middle of the month, and has not moved since.

Dimming outlook

Currently, one in five consumers (20%) say the economy is excellent or good, while 33% say it's poor -- resulting in a current conditions index of -13. As for the economy's future, 38% say it's getting better, while 56% say things are getting worse, for an economic outlook score of -18 -- the same as the previous week's score.

The recent slight dip in the overall index is attributable to losses in the outlook component since early June, while consumer attitudes about current economic conditions have held steady. This punctuates the pattern seen throughout 2014, with consumers' perceptions of the current state of the economy inching higher -- now up five points from -18 at the start of January -- while their outlook for the economy has gone in the other direction -- falling 10 points from -8.

Steady, but gloomy

Consumers' overall confidence in the economy has been relatively steady all year, and that has continued over the last three weeks, with confidence consistently at -16. This stability, however, masks the good news that perceptions of current conditions have improved, and are now approaching their highest level in five years. However, pessimism about the economy's direction is mounting, and is keeping the overall index from climbing any higher.

Even last week's promising jobs report and stock market highs couldn't lift consumers' confidence, suggesting stability may be in the forecast for the foreseeable future. Meanwhile, gas prices, which now top $4 in some states, could have prevented any potential gains in confidence.

The index

The Economic Confidence Index is the average of two components: Consumers' views on the current economic situation and their perceptions of whether the economy is getting better or worse.

The potential high is 100, if all were to say the economy is "excellent" or "good" and that it is getting better; the potential low is -100, if all were to say the economy is "poor" and getting worse.

Since January 2008, when Gallup began tracking economic confidence daily, the weekly averages have ranged from -65 in October 2008 to -3 in May and June 2013.

Consumers are more confident about the economy than they've been in a long time.

According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index, which had increased in May, improved again this month and now stands at 85.2 -- up 3 points from the previous month.

The Present Situation Index increased to 85.1 from 80.3, while the Expectations Index rose to 85.2 from 83.5 in May.

“Consumer confidence continues to advance and the index is now at its highest level since January 2008 (87.3),” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “June’s increase was driven primarily by improving current conditions, particularly consumers’ assessment of business conditions. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and jobs were moderately more favorable, while income expectations were a bit mixed. Still, the momentum going forward remains quite positive.”

How they see it

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions improved in June. Those saying business conditions are “good” increased to 23.0% from 21.1%, while those saying they are “bad” decreased to 22.8% from 24.6%.

Consumers’ assessment of the job market was also more favorable. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” edged up to 14.7% from 14.2%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” declined to 31.8% from 32.2%.

Consumers’ expectations were generally more positive in June. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.8% from 17.7%. However, those expecting business conditions to worsen increased to 11.4% from 10.7%.

Consumers were more positive about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead rose to 16.3% from 15.2%, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 18.7% from 18.9%.

Fewer consumers expect their incomes to grow, 15.9% versus 18.0%, but those expecting a drop in their incomes also declined -- to 12.1% from 14.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 13.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded from its April decline.

After dipping to 81.7 last month, the Index now stands at 83.0. Both the Present Situation Index and the Expectations Index posted increases.

“Consumer confidence improved slightly in May, as consumers assessed current conditions, in particular the labor market, more favorably,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy, jobs, and personal finances were also more upbeat. In fact, the percentage of consumers expecting their incomes to grow over the next six months is the highest since December 2007 (20.2%). Thus, despite last month’s decline, consumers’ confidence appears to be growing.”

The situation now

Consumers’ assessment of present-day conditions improved in May. Those who said business conditions are “good” dropped to 21.1% from 22.2%, while those who think they are “bad” declined to 24.1% from 24.8%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was more favorable. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” rose to 14.1% from 13.0%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” dipped to 32.3% from 32.8%.

Looking ahead

Consumers’ expectations increased slightly in May.

The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months edged up to 17.5% from 17.2%, while those looking for business conditions to worsen slipped to 10.2% from 10.5%.

Consumers were more positive about the outlook for the labor market.

Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 15.4% from 14.7%, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged up to 18.3% from 18.0%.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to grow increased to 18.3% from 16.8%, but those expecting a drop in their incomes also increased -- to 14.5% from 12.9%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 14.

Consumers weren't quite as upbeat about the U.S. economy this month as they were in March.

The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index, which increased last month, slipped slightly in April from 83.9 to 82.3. The Present Situation Index dropped 4.2 -- to 78.3, while the Expectations Index was virtually unchanged at 84.9.

“Consumer confidence declined slightly in April, as consumers assessed current business and labor market conditions less favorably than in March,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “However, their expectations regarding the short-term outlook for the economy and labor market held steady.

But, she adds, while sentiment regarding current conditions may have slipped a bit, “consumers do not foresee the economy, or the labor market, losing the momentum that has been building up over the past several months.”

Business conditions and jobs

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions pulled back moderately in April. Those who said business conditions are “good” edged down to 21.8% from 22.6%, while those think conditions are “bad” rose to 24.4% from 23.5%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also slightly more negative. Those who think jobs are “plentiful” declined to 12.9% from 13.8%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” rose 1.1% to 32.5%.

Looking ahead

Consumers’ expectations held steady in April. The percentage of consumers who look for business conditions to improve over the next six months was unchanged at 17.4%, while those anticipating them to worsen inched up 0.2% to 10.3%.

People were slightly more optimistic about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 15.0% from 14.1%, while those expecting fewer jobs edged up to 17.9% from 17.5%.

The proportion of consumers who think their incomes will grow rose 1.8% -- to 17.1%, while those expecting a drop in their incomes also increased -- to 12.9% from 11.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 17.

While consumers don't much like what they are seeing now, they are optimistic about the future.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, which had decreased in February, rose 4 points in March -- to 82.3. This occurred even as the Present Situation Index dipped a fraction to 80.4 from 81.0, while the Expectations Index shot up 7 points to 83.5.

The improvement came as expectations for the short-term outlook bounced back from February’s decline. “While consumers were moderately more upbeat about future job prospects and the overall economy, they were less optimistic about income growth,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Present Situation index, which had been on an upward trend for the past four months, was relatively unchanged in March. Overall, consumers expect the economy to continue improving and believe it may even pick up a little steam in the months ahead.”

A closer look at consumer attitudes

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was little-changed in March.

• Those saying business conditions are “good” increased to 22.9%t from 21.2%; however, those who think business conditions are “bad” also rose, to 23.2% from 22.0%. Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market also was relatively unchanged.
• Those who think jobs are “plentiful” decreased 0.3% -- to 13.1%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” increased slightly to 33.0% from 32.4%.

Consumers’ expectations, which fell last month, rebounded in March.

• The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.1% from 17.3%, while those worsening conditions fell 3.4% -- to 10.2 percent%.  

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also moderately more optimistic.  

• Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead edged up to 13.9% from 13.7%, while those expecting fewer jobs fell to 18.0% from 20.9%.
• The proportion expecting their incomes to grow declined to 14.9% 15.8%, but those anticipating a decline in their incomes also dropped by 1.3% to 12.1%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 14.

How cold was it in January? Apparently so cold a lot of consumers didn't want to take their hands out of their pockets.

That's one possible explanation for the decline in the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index last month. Even with the drop of 0.3 -- to 4.0 -- the index, which tracks consumer cash flow as an indicator of future consumer spending, remained in positive territory.

"All components of the index this month declined slightly, though such volatility is consistent with a recovering economy," said Daniel Bachman, Deloitte's senior U.S. economist. "The index still indicates a positive environment for consumers, which may help sustain current spending levels."

"Despite a colder than usual winter, retailers may benefit from 'spring fever' once the chilly temperatures subside," said Alison Paul, vice chairman, Deloitte LLP and Retail & Distribution sector leader. "Consumers may feel like they're coming out of hibernation after many frigid, stormy weeks and quickly warm up to the idea of shopping for spring apparel, gardening supplies or outdoor gear. Retailers should be ready to capitalize on that excitement, starting with mobile and online awareness efforts now, so that their brands are top of mind when consumers venture out."

Index highlights

Here is how the four major components of the Deloitte Consumer Spending Index performed last month:

• Tax burden: The tax rate remains at approximately 11.8%, with only a 0.3% increase from the month prior.
• Initial unemployment claims: The four-week moving average of initial unemployment claims rose to 359,000, a rise of nearly 11% from the previous month.
• Real wages: Real hourly wages ticked down 0.2% to $8.81 in December, but remain among the highest levels seen over the past year.
• Real new home prices: New home prices dipped 0.6% to $115,000 from $116,000 in the previous month.

A drop in consumer expectations pushed the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index lower in February.

After rising to 79.4 In January, the Index dropped to 78.1, due according to Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, “concern over the short-term outlook for business conditions, jobs, and earnings.”

Franco says while expectations have fluctuated over recent months, current conditions have continued to trend upward and the Present Situation Index is now at its highest level in almost six years. “This,” she adds, “suggests that consumers believe the economy has improved, but they do not foresee it gaining considerable momentum in the months ahead.”

How things stand

Consumers had a positive view current conditions for the fourth consecutive month in February. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased to 21.5% from 20.8%, while those saying business conditions are “bad” declined to 22.6% from 23.4%.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also improved. Those who see jobs as “plentiful” rose to 13.9% from 12.5%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” dipped to 32.5% from 32.7%.

Looking ahead

Consumers’ expectations, which had been improving over the past two months, retreated in February. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 16.3% from 17.0%, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased to 13.3% from 12.2%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more pessimistic. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 13.3% from 15.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 20.6% from 19.0%.

The proportion of consumers who see their incomes increasing fell from 16.6% to 15.4%, while those anticipating a drop in their incomes also fell -- from 13.9% to 13.1%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 13.

Ordinarily a fickle bunch, consumers have been happy with the economy for two straight months.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index was up more than three points in January -- to 80.7. In addition, the Present Situation Index shot to 79.1 from 75.3, and the Expectations Index rose to 81.8 from 79.0 last month.

Confidence back on track

“Consumers’ assessment of the present situation continues to improve, with both business conditions and the job market rated more favorably,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead six months, consumers expect the economy and their earnings to improve, but were somewhat mixed regarding the outlook for jobs. All in all, confidence appears to be back on track and rising expectations suggest the economy may pick up some momentum in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ assessment of overall present-day conditions continues to improve. Those claiming business conditions are “good” increased to 21.5% from 20.2%, while those who think conditions are “bad” edged down to 22.8%t from 23.2%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was also more positive. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” ticked up to 12.7% from 11.9%%, while those who believe jobs are “hard to get” decreased slightly to 32.6% from 32.9%.

Rising expectations

Consumers’ expectations, which had improved sharply in December, were up again in January. Those who expect business conditions to improve over the next six months was unchanged at 17.4%, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen decreased to 12.1% from 13.9%.

The outlook for the labor market was mixed. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 15.4% from 17.1%. However, those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 18.3% from 19.4%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 15.8% from 13.9%t, while see a decrease in their incomes declined to 13.6% from 14.3%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was January 16.

What a difference a month makes.

After posting a 2-point decline in November -- to 72.0, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index shot up more than 6 points in December and now stands at 78.1. The Present Situation Index rose to 76.2 from 73.5, while the Expectations Index jumped to 79.4 from 71.1 last month.

The rebound in consumer confidence in December put the index close to pre-government shutdown levels (September 2013, 80.2). “Sentiment regarding current conditions increased to a 5 ½ year high (April 2008, 81.9), with consumers attributing the improvement to more favorable economic and labor market conditions,” said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Looking ahead, consumers expressed a greater degree of confidence in future economic and job prospects, but were moderately more pessimistic about their earning prospects. Despite the many challenges throughout 2013, consumers are in better spirits today than when the year began.”

How they see it

Consumers’ appraisal of overall current conditions improved. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged down to 19.6% from 20.4%; however, those who think business conditions are “bad” decreased to 22.6% from 24.6%t. Appraisal of the job market was also more upbeat. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” ticked up to 12.2% from 12.0%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” dipped 1.6% -- to 32.5%.

Consumers’ expectations, which had decreased in November, improved in December. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 17.2% from 16.7%, and those expecting business conditions to worsen fell to 14.0% from 16.1%.

The outlook for the labor market was considerably more optimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead jumped 4% -- to 17.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs decreased to 19.0% from 21.4%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase, on the other hand, was down 1.4% to 13.9%; while those expecting a their incomes to fall declined to 14.0% from 15.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was December 17.

Heading into the holiday -- which is to say shopping -- season, consumers have a dimmer view of the economy.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index declined in November following a sharp 9-point decrease the month before. The Index now stands at 70.4 -- a 2-point drop from October. The Present Situation Index edged down to 72.0 from 72.6, while the Expectations Index slipped to 69.3 from 72.2 last month.

“Sentiment regarding current conditions was mixed, with consumers saying the job market had strengthened, while economic conditions had slowed,” said Lynn Franco, the Board's director of economic indicators. “However, these sentiments did not carry over into the short-term outlook. When looking ahead six months, consumers expressed greater concern about future job and earning prospects, but remain neutral about economic conditions. All in all, with such uncertainty prevailing, this could be a challenging holiday season for retailers.”

Ebb and flow

Consumers’ assessment of overall current conditions decreased slightly. Those claiming business conditions are “good” edged up to 19.9% from 19.5%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” increased to 25.2% from 23.0%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was little changed. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” ticked up 0.2% -- to 11.8%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” decreased to 34.0% from 34.9%.

Consumers’ expectations, which had decreased sharply in October, declined further in November. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased slightly to 16.6% from 16.0%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen fell to 16.8% from 17.5%.

Jobs concerns

However, consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more pessimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead fell to 12.7% from 16.0%, but those anticipating fewer jobs also decreased 0.9% -- to 21.7%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 14.9% from 15.7%. Those expecting their incomes to drop rose slightly to 15.9% from 15.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was November 15.

The government shutdown earlier this month, along with jitters about the debt ceiling, took a toll on the way consumers viewed the economy.

The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index fell sharply in October on the heels of September's moderate decline. The Index now stands at 71.2 -- down 9 points from where it stood last month. The Present Situation Index decreased to 70.7 from 73.5, while the Expectations Index fell to 71.5 from 84.7 last month.

“Consumer confidence deteriorated considerably as the federal government shutdown and debt-ceiling crisis took a particularly large toll on consumers’ expectations,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Similar declines in confidence were experienced during the payroll tax hike earlier this year, the fiscal cliff discussions in late 2012, and the government shutdown in 1995/1996. However, given the temporary nature of the current resolution, confidence is likely to remain volatile for the next several months.”

How they see it

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions declined moderately. Those who think business conditions are “good” decreased to 19.0% from 20.7%, while those claiming business conditions are “bad” edged down to 23.0% from 23.9%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was less favorable than last month. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” was virtually unchanged at 11.3%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” jumped to 35.8% from 33.6%.

Consumers’ expectations, which had softened in September, plunged in October. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months fell to 16.0% from 20.6%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen increased to 17.5% from 10.3%.

There was also more pessimism about the outlook for the labor market. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 15.3% from 16.1%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 22.7% from 19.1%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 15.8% from 15.1%. However, those expecting a decrease rose to 15.4% from 13.9%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 17.

Consumers appear to have become a bit wobbly about the economy in September.

According to The Conference Board, its Consumer Confidence Index, slipped this month after showing some strength in August. It now stands at 79.7 – a drop of just over two points from its reading of 81.8 the previous month. The Present Situation Index grew to 73.2 from 70.9, while the Expectations Index fell to 84.1 from 89.0 last month.

“Consumer Confidence decreased in September as concerns about the short-term outlook for both jobs and earnings resurfaced, while expectations for future business conditions were little changed,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions, however, was more positive. While overall economic conditions appear to have moderately improved, consumers are uncertain that the momentum can be sustained in the months ahead.”

How they see it

Consumers’ appraisal of present-day conditions improved moderately. Those who say business conditions are “good” increased to 19.5% from 18.7%, while those who think conditions are “bad” fell to 23.9% from 24.5$.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market also was more favorable. Those who believe jobs are “plentiful” inched up to 11.5% from 11.3%, while those saying jobs are “hard to get” fell to a five-year low of 32.7% from 33.3%.

Consumers’ expectations, which had increased in August, declined in September. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months edged up to 20.9% from 20.6%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen was virtually unchanged at 11.0%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market, however, grew more pessimistic. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead dropped to 16.9% from 17.5%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 19.7% from 17.2%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase declined to 15.4% from 17.5%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was September 13.

There's a lot of talk about a financial recovery but for many Americans, that's all it is -- talk. So says the Consumer Reports Index, an overall measure of Americans’ personal financial health, which found that Americans reported a sharp rise in financial difficulties and a weaker view of their overall financial health in the past 30 days.

“The economy is staggering along. This recovery remains the weakest since World War II. Uncertainty hangs over the lower-income consumers like a veil of smoke fed by the lackluster recovery in jobs, “said Ed Farrell, director of consumer insight at Consumer Reports.

The Consumer Reports Index’s trouble tracker climbed to 46.0 in August from 34.7 the prior month. This significant rise was driven by a surge in financial troubles among lower-income consumers (households earning $50,000 or less) and Americans with a high school education or less.

The trouble tracker measure addresses both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of hurdles they have encountered.  Affluent and college-educated consumers showed little change in the amount of financial trouble they faced in the past 30 days.

It flows downhill

Lower-income households continue to be disproportionately affected by the economy’s crawling recovery. Twenty-seven percent of them reported they were unable to afford medical bills or medications in the past 30 days—that’s 11 percentage points higher than the national average. Missed bill payments and lost or reduced healthcare coverage also remain among the most prevalently reported financial troubles overall.  

The Consumer Reports Index’s sentiment measure dropped into negative territory for the first time in five months, falling to 48.6 from 50.8 the prior month. After three straight months of decline, sentiment is at its lowest level since October 2012. The greatest decline in sentiment was also among lower-income households and those that have a high school education or less.

The level of stress that consumers felt was up from the prior month, 58.0 versus 53.7, respectively. The most stressed Americans: women (59.6), those in households earning under $50,000 (62.0), aged 35-64 (60.9), and those in the Northeast (61.5).

The Consumer Reports Index, conducted by the Consumer Reports National Research Center, is a monthly telephone and cell phone poll of a nationally representative probability sample of American adults.

The world changed five years ago, in September 2008. On September 15 investment banking giant Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy, sending a shock wave through the financial world, freezing the credit markets and causing overnight massive layoffs that sent the unemployment rate surging to a 14-year high.

Many mark the start of the Great Recession with the Lehman collapse but the economy had been in recession since the previous December. If that weren't bad enough, gasoline prices surged to record highs in July. By early October real economic fear gripped the country and much of the world, resulting in a series of controversial government remedies, some of which continue today.

Taking stock

So, where are we today, five years after all of this started? A survey by Country Financial suggests many Americans do not feel their personal financial security or the economy overall are any better compared to five years ago.

Fifty-four percent say they feel less financially secure now than they did five years ago and another 19% feel the same. Just 27% feel more financially secure.

How's the U.S. economy doing? Nearly half in the survey said the economy is worse than it was five years ago and another 19% say it's about the same. Only 29% say it's better.

Economist's view

Economist Joel Naroff, of Narroff Economic Advisors, in Holland, Pa., is among the 29% who say the economy is better. At least, he says it is as good as could have been hoped.

“The two sectors that collapsed, housing and finance, are usually the leaders during a recovery and it took four years for housing to start to come around and finance is still in the process of healing,” Naroff said.

Added to the problems, he says, European and Asian economies have also been weak. It should be no surprise that economic growth is anemic, at best. Yet, he says, it seems to surprise a lot of people, which is part of the problem.

Perception

“It is that perception that is, in part, holding things back,” Naroff said. “Businesses are not convinced the economy will shift into high gear so they are holding back on hiring. That has kept the unemployment rate at unacceptably high levels. Worse, with so many people looking for work, firms have had no pressure to raise wages. Real earnings have stagnated and in a consumer-driven economy, it is hard to expand robustly if households don't have the financial ability to lead the way.”

And the outlook isn't promising for people hoping for a pay raise. Until the unemployment rate falls to a level where businesses have to bid for workers, thereby raising wages, the recovery will continue at a lackluster pace, he says.

When quizzed about the lasting effects from the Great Recession, consumers in the Country Financial survey cited “a hit to savings” as the biggest scar, even more so than the loss of home value. At the top of the list of lasting effects that still worry Americans are a reduced retirement nest egg – 22% – and depleted emergency savings – 21%. By comparison, just eight percent mention reduced home value.

Housing rebound

That could be because the housing market appears to be in the beginning stages of a recovery. In fact, in the last year the housing market and auto sales – two sectors devastated by the Great Recession – have becoming the strongest pillars in an otherwise weak U.S. economy.

“The housing and vehicle sectors have recovered, in part, because of low rates and growing confidence about the future,” Naroff said. “While people are not exuberant, they are no longer fearful of losing their jobs. Given that they have run their vehicles into the ground, this growing expectation about the future is leading to a pick-up in demand.”

As carmakers have racked up record sales month after month, the fleet of automobiles on U.S. highways has gotten newer and more fuel-efficient, and that has paid an unexpected dividend. Despite a recovering economy demand for gasoline has continued to decline, removing pressure on supplies and prices.

Investors driving housing market

“As for housing, the market has changed to where investors are becoming a key element of demand,” Naroff notes. “This created a bottom in prices and started the upturn. As prices rose, more people had the equity to both sell the homes they wanted to shed for years and also buy a different one.”

If this trend continues, he says the number of people “underwater” on their mortgage will dwindle sharply and that will lead to renewed health in the housing market.

In the meantime, the last five years have left very real economic scars on a wide swath of the U.S. population. In the Country Financial Survey, nearly half of those questioned said they don't expect any economic improvement in their lives in the next five years.

Forty-six percent expect to experience another recession in the next five years and another 32 percent aren't sure. Thirty-six percent say improvements in the job market will make them feel more financially secure.

"It's not surprising Americans have a cautious outlook on the next five years, given the ongoing impact of the recession," said Troy Frerichs, director of investments-wealth management at Country Financial. "The best way to approach financial uncertainty is to be prepared for anything.”

Maybe things aren't so bad after all.

That seems to be the attitude of consumers, who were a little more upbeat about the economy in August than they were in July.

After declining the previous month, The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index increased slightly in August and now stands at 81.5. The July reading was 81.0 in July. While the Present Situation Index fell more than three points (70.7 versus73.6), the Expectations Index increased to 88.7 from 86.0 last month.

The boost in confidence was largely the result of improving short-term expectations. “Consumers were moderately more upbeat about business, job and earning prospects,” said Economic Indicators Director Lynn Franco. “In fact, income expectations, which had declined sharply earlier this year with the payroll tax hike, have rebounded to their highest level in two and a half years.” However, assessment of current business and labor market conditions was somewhat less favorable than last month.

How they see it now

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions was down a bit. Those who think business conditions are “good” decreased to 18.4% from 20.8%, while those who say business conditions are “bad” was virtually unchanged at 24.8%.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 11.4% from 12.3%, while those who think jobs are “hard to get” declined to 33.0% from 35.2%.

Looking ahead

Consumers’ expectations, which had dipped in July, increased in August. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months edged up to 20.1% from 19.9%. Those who believe things will get worse slipped to 11.1% from 11.3%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market remained upbeat. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 17.6% from 16.7%, while those who see fewer jobs dropped to 17.3% from 17.7%. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 17.4% from 15.7%. Those looking for a decrease was down slightly to 13.5% from 13.7%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 15.

Questions in consumers' minds about the outlook for jobs helped undercut their confidence in the economy in July.

The Conference Board reports that after improving in June, its Confidence Consumer Index pulled back slightly and now stands at 80.3 -- down 1.8 from its June reading. While the Present Situation Index increased to 73.6 from 68.7, the Expectations Index fell to 84.7 from 91.1 last month.

Job concerns

“Consumer Confidence fell slightly in July, precipitated by a weakening in consumers’ economic and job expectations,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “However, confidence remains well above the levels of a year ago.”

Consumers’ assessment of current conditions continues to gain ground, she added, “and expectations remain in expansionary territory despite the July retreat. Overall, indications are that the economy is strengthening and may even gain some momentum in the months ahead.”

Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions continues to improve. Those who said business conditions are “good” increased to 20.9% from 19.4%, while those who think they are “bad” decreased to 24.5% from 24.9%. Consumers’ assessment of the job market was also more positive. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased to 12.2% from 11.3%, while those who see jobs as “hard to get” declined to 35.5% from 37.1%.

Short-term weakness

Consumers’ expectations regarding the short-term outlook weakened in July. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 19.1% from 21.4%. However, those looking for business conditions to worsen remained virtually unchanged at 11.2%.

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was less upbeat. Those forecasting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 16.5% from 19.7%, while those anticipating fewer jobs increased to 18.1% from 16.1%. The proportion of consumers who think their their incomes will increase dipped slightly to 15.3% from 15.9%; however those expecting a decrease fell to 13.8% from 14.2%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 18.

According to at least one measure, people are feeling better about their financial condition than they have in several years.

The Consumer Reports (CR) Index trouble tracker is down sharply -- to 34.0 from 41.7 a month earlier -- the lowest level since April 2009. The trouble tracker measure focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered.

Negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication; missed mortgage payment; home foreclosure; interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms; job loss; reduced health-care coverage; and, the denial of personal loans.

The trouble tracker has dropped more than 50 percent from its high-water mark in September 2009, when it hit 68.7. The greatest drop in financial difficulties over the past 30 days was among those in households earning less than $50,000, followed by the most affluent in homes -- those earning $100,000 or more. Amidst this general drop in financial difficulties, middle-income Americans experienced a slight rise in financial troubles.

“The data offer a glimpse that consumers may be starting to see and feel the progress of the economic recovery,” said Ed Farrell, director of consumer insight at the Consumer Reports National Research Center.

Other measures

• The index’s sentiment measure declined 1.9 points to 52.6 from its high point of 54.5 last month, but overall remains in positive territory. The drop was attributable to a drop in two segments: consumers in households earning less than $50,000 (-2.8), and those with a high school education or less (-4.7).
• The CR index’s employment measure showed that job gains outpaced job losses for the third straight month. The employment measure was little changed this month, rising slightly to 50.6 from 50.3 a month earlier. The uptick was attributed to an increase in the proportion of people starting a new job in the past 30 days, and job gains outpacing job losses by a widening margin. The only group that lost more jobs than it gained was among those with a high school education or less. “Despite the improvements, consumers are still frigid about robust spending,” Farrell said. “We are watching closely waiting to see how long it will take them to thaw out from the mindset created by the conditions of the past five years.”
• The past 30-day retail measure halted four straight months of decline, ticking upward to 9.2 from 8.7 a month earlier. Among the retail categories the index tracks, the gain was driven primarily by a large seasonal rise in the major lawn and garden equipment category, and a small uptick in major appliances. The Index also shows that consumers are still not comfortable with robust spending. Planned spending for the next 30 days, reflecting potential June activity, is at 6.0, its lowest level since first measured in April 2009.
• The level of stress that consumers felt was up slightly to 55.2 from 53.8 last month. The most stressed Americans: women (55.8), those in households earning under $50,000 (57.1), aged 18-34 (56.6), and those in the North East (57.6).

Things are looking up this month as far as U.S. consumers are concerned

The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index was up for the second time in as many months during May, posting a gain of 7.2 from April -- to 76.2. The May reading surprised economists surveyed by Briefing.com, who were expecting a reading of 72.5.

The Present Situation Index increased to 66.7 from 61.0, while the Expectations Index rose to 82.4 from 74.3 last month.

“Consumer Confidence posted another gain this month and is now at a five-year high (Feb. 2008, Index 76.4),” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor-market conditions was more positive and they were considerably more upbeat about future economic and job prospects. Back-to-back monthly gains suggest that consumer confidence is on the mend and may be regaining the traction it lost due to the fiscal cliff, payroll-tax hike, and sequester.”

An upbeat assessment

Consumers saying business conditions currently are “good” increased to 18.8% from 17.5%, while those stating business conditions are “bad” decreased to 26.0% from 27.6%. Their assessment of the labor market was also more positive. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” increased to 10.8% from 9.7%, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged down to 36.1% from 36.9%.

Consumers were considerably more optimistic about the short-term outlook. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 19.2% from 17.2%, while those expecting business conditions to worsen decreased to 12.1% from 14.8%.

The outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat. Consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead improved to 16.8% from 14.3%, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 19.7% from 21.8%. The proportion of people expecting their incomes to increase dipped slightly to 16.6% from 16.8%, while those expecting a decrease edged down to 15.3% from 15.9%.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was May 15.

After posting a decline in March, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index posted a gain of better than six points this month to stand at 68.1.  That outstripped the expectations of economists polled by Briefing.com, who were looking for a reading of  60.3

In addition, the Present Situation Index rose to 60.4 from 59.2 and the Expectations Index improved to 73.3 from 63.7 last month.

“Consumer Confidence improved in April, as consumers’ expectations about the short-term economic outlook and their income prospects improved,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “However, consumers’ confidence has been challenged several times over the past few months by such events as the fiscal cliff, the payroll tax hike and the sequester. Thus, while expectations appear to have bounced back, it is too soon to tell if confidence is actually on the mend.”

Consumers see improvement

The assessment of current conditions improved moderately in April. Consumers saying business conditions are “good” increased to 17.2 percent from 16.4 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” fell to 28.1 percent from 29.1 percent.

Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” edged up to 9.8 percent from 9.5 percent. However those claiming jobs are “hard to get” increased to 37.1 percent from 35.4 percent.

The shorter view

Consumers were considerably more upbeat about the short-term outlook. The percentage who think business conditions will improve over the next six months increased to 16.9 percent from 15.0 percent, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen decreased to 15.1 percent from 17.7 percent.

The outlook for the labor market was also more positive. Consumers expecting more jobs in the months ahead improved to 14.2 percent from 13.0 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 22.4 percent from 26.0 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to rise climbed to 16.8 percent from 14.6 percent, while those expecting a decrease dipped to 16.0 percent from 17.7 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was April 18.

Uncertainty -- some of it generated by the sequester -- has put consumers in something of a funk.

The Conference Board reports its Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved in February, fell to 59.7 in March from 68.0. Factors include a drop in the Present Situation Index to 57.9 from 61.4 and a decline in the Expectations Index to 60.9 from 72.4 last month.

“Consumer Confidence fell sharply in March, following February’s uptick,” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “This month’s retreat was driven primarily by a sharp decline in expectations, although consumers were also more pessimistic in their assessment of current conditions. The loss of confidence, particularly expectations, mirrors the losses experienced this past December and January. The recent sequester has created uncertainty regarding the economic outlook and as a result, consumers are less confident.”

Survey highlights

• Consumers’ appraisal of current conditions declined in March. Those saying business conditions are “good” decreased to 16.0% from 17.6%, while those stating business conditions are “bad” increased to 29.3% from 28.2%.
• Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was mixed. Those claiming jobs are “plentiful” decreased to 9.4% from 10.1%, but those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged down to 36.2% from 36.9%.
• Consumers are once again pessimistic about the short-term outlook. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months decreased to 14.4% from 18.0%, while those anticipating business conditions to worsen increased to 18.3% from 16.6%.
• Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead declined to 12.3% from 16.1%, while those expecting fewer jobs increased to 26.6% from 22.1%.
• The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase fell to 13.7% from 15.8%, while those expecting a decrease edged down to 18.0% from 19.3%.
• The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was March 14.

After posting a decline last month, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rebounded in February and now stands at 69.6 -- up from 1.2 from in January. The Present Situation Index increased to 63.3 from 56.2. The Expectations Index improved to 73.8 from 59.9 last month.

“Consumer Confidence rebounded in February as the shock effect caused by the fiscal cliff uncertainty and payroll tax cuts appears to have abated.” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions is more positive than last month. Looking ahead, consumers are cautiously optimistic about the outlook for business and labor market conditions. Income expectations, which had turned rather negative last month, have improved modestly.”

Present day improvement

Consumers’ assessment of present day conditions improved in February. Those claiming business conditions are “good” rose to 18.1 percent from 16.1 percent, while those stating business conditions are “bad” decreased to 27.8 percent from 28.4 percent.

Consumers’ appraisal of the labor market was mixed. Those saying jobs are “plentiful” increased to 10.5 percent from 8.5 percent, while those claiming jobs are “hard to get” edged up to 37.0 percent from 36.6 percent.

There was more optimism about the short-term outlook this month. Those expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 18.9 percent from 15.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions to worsen declined to 16.5 percent from 20.4 percent.

Jobs & income

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was more positive. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead improved to 16.7 percent from 14.4 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs decreased to 21.5 percent from 26.7 percent.

The proportion of consumers expecting their incomes to increase rose to 15.7 percent from 13.5 percent, while those anticipating a decrease fell to 19.6 percent from 23.3 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was February 14.

With less than a week to go before the elections, people seem to be feeling better about the economy.

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which rose in September, improved again in October. The Index now stands at 72.2 (1985=100) -- compared with 68.4 in September. The Present Situation Index increased to 56.2 from 48.7. The Expectations Index rose to 82.9 from 81.5 last month.

"The Consumer Confidence Index increased again in October and is now at its highest level this year,” said Lynn Franco, director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers were considerably more positive in their assessment of current conditions -- with improvements in the job market as the major driver. Consumers were modestly more upbeat about their financial situation and the short-term economic outlook, and appear to be in better spirits approaching the holiday season."

Current conditions, labor market show improvement

Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved in October. Those claiming business conditions are "good" rose to 16.5 percent from 15.3 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" edged down to 33.1 percent from 33.8 percent.

Consumers' appraisal of the labor market was also more positive. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" increased to 10.3 percent from 8.1 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" declined to 39.4 percent from 40.7 percent.

Eye on the future

Consumers were generally more optimistic about the short-term outlook in October. Those anticipating an improvement in business conditions over the next six months increased to 21.4 percent from 17.9 percent. However, those expecting business conditions to worsen edged up to 15.1 percent from 14.5 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also mixed. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 19.2 percent from 18.1 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs increased to 20.3 percent from 18.7 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes edged up to 16.7 percent from 15.9 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey , based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was October 18.

After showing improvement in July, The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index has declined in August. The Index now stands at 60.6 versus the reading of 65.4 in July.

he Expectations Index decreased to 70.5 from 78.4. The Present Situation Index, however, was virtually unchanged, at 45.8 versus 45.9 a month ago.

"The Consumer Confidence Index is now at its lowest level since late last year (Nov. 2011, 55.2),” said Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “A more pessimistic outlook was the primary reason for this month's decline in confidence. Consumers were more apprehensive about business and employment prospects, but more optimistic about their financial prospects despite rising inflation expectations. Consumers' assessment of current conditions was virtually unchanged, suggesting no significant pickup or deterioration in the pace of growth."

Mixed indicators

Consumers' assessment of current conditions was little changed in August. Those claiming business conditions are "good" improved to 15.2 percent from 13.7 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" was unchanged at 34.4 percent. Consumers' appraisal of the labor market varied. Those stating jobs are "plentiful" declined to 7.0 percent from 7.8 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" edged down to 40.7 percent from 41.0 percent.

Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook deteriorated in August. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months declined to 16.5 percent from 19.0 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen increased to 17.7 percent from 15.1 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was also less favorable. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead decreased to 15.4 percent from 17.6 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs rose to 23.4 percent from 20.6 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes, however, improved to 15.7 percent from 14.2 percent.

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was August 16.

Have we turned the corner or is it a blip? 

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in June, improved slightly this month. in July. It now stands at 65.9 (1985=100), up 3.2 from its reading in June. 

The Expectations Index improved to 79.1 from 73.4, although the Present Situation Index, decreased slightly -- to 46.2 from 46.6 a month ago. 

Still on the low side 

"Despite this month's improvement in confidence, the overall Index remains at historically low levels,” said Says Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers' attitude regarding current conditions was little changed in July, but their short-term expectations, which had declined last month, bounced back.” 

She notes that while consumers expressed greater optimism about short-term business and employment prospects, they have grown more pessimistic about their earnings. “Given the current economic environment -- in particular the weak labor market,” she says, “consumer confidence is not likely to gain any significant momentum in the coming months." 

Here and now 

Consumers' appraisal of current conditions eased in July. Those claiming business conditions are "good" declined to 13.8 percent from 14.2 percent, while those saying business conditions are "bad" decreased to 34.2 percent from 35.9 percent. 

Consumers' assessment of the labor market was also mixed. Those stating jobs are “hard to get" declined to 40.8 percent from 41.2 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" decreased to 7.8 percent from 8.3 percent. 

Looking ahead 

On the other hand, consumers were generally more optimistic about the short-term outlook in July.  The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months rose to 18.9 percent from 16.0 percent, while those anticipating business conditions will worsen decreased to 14.6 percent from 15.8 percent. 

Consumers’ outlook for the labor market was also more upbeat in July. Those expecting more jobs in the months ahead increased to 17.6 percent from 14.8 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs edged down to 20.3 percent from 20.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes, however, declined to 14.2 percent from 15.3 percent. 

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was July 19.

The mood of the U.S. consumer continued to darken during June. 

The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index®, which had declined in May, fell further in June and now stands at 62.0 (1985=100) -- down from 64.4 in May.

At the same time, the Expectations Index declined to 72.3 from 77.3. The Present Situation Index, however, increased to 46.6 from 44.9 last month. 

The monthly Consumer Confidence Survey®, based on a probability-design random sample, is conducted for The Conference Board by Nielsen, a leading global provider of information and analytics around what consumers buy and watch. The cutoff date for the preliminary results was June 14. 

The continuing slide 

"Consumer Confidence declined in June, the fourth consecutive moderate decline, said Lynn Franco, Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “Consumers were somewhat more positive about current conditions, but slightly more pessimistic about the short-term outlook. 

“Income expectations, which had improved last month, declined in June,” she added. “If this trend continues, spending may be restrained in the short-term. The improvement in the Present Situation Index, coupled with a moderate softening in consumer expectations, suggests there will be little change in the pace of economic activity in the near-term." 

A mixed outlook 

Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved slightly in June. Those claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 14.9 percent from 13.6 percent, however, those saying business conditions are "bad" increased to 35.1 percent from 34.7 percent. 

Consumers’ appraisal of the job market was mixed. Those stating jobs are "hard to get" increased to 41.5 percent from 40.9 percent, while those claiming jobs are "plentiful" increased to 7.8 percent from 7.5 percent. 

Consumers have grown less upbeat about the short-term outlook. The percentage of consumers anticipating business conditions to improve over the next six months declined to 15.5 percent from 16.6 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen increased to 16.2 percent from 12.9 percent. 

Consumers' outlook for the labor market was mixed. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead declined to 14.1 percent from 15.4 percent, while those expecting fewer jobs also declined to 20.6 percent from 21.5 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes declined to 14.8 percent from 15.7 percent.

It was just a week or so ago that the Consumer Confidence Index issued by the Conference Board was rising in lockstep with gasoline prices, causing more than a little head-scratching.

We don't know about the Conference Board but the Consumer Reports Index, a measure of overall consumer financial health, showed that the confidence of the American consumer is waning, with signs of mounting financial difficulty emerging.

After three months of improvement, the Consumer Reports Sentiment Index fell this month to 46.1, from 49.6 last month. Further challenging consumer confidence, The Trouble Tracker Index increased slightly this month to 52.2 from 49.1 in February, and is now at its highest level since August 2011.

The impact of financial troubles is very different across income levels. The Trouble Tracker Index for those living in households earning less than $50,000, about half of all American adults, stands at 73.9, nearly four times as great as those in households earning $100,000 or more (18.9).

Retail lagging

Since the holidays, retail has yet to regain its footing with Americans continuing to pull back on spending. Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index fell slightly to 11.5 from 11.8 last month, a pattern similar to last year. Planned purchasing over the next 30 days, reflecting anticipated March activity, is 8.7, up from 7.1 the prior month, seeding hopes for an upturn in the near term.

“Consumers are not yet comfortable in their financial situation as the country limps into its fifth year of near-recessionary times,” said Ed Farrell, director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center. “Weak retail is the symptom, not an underlying cause. Consumers will need a clear signal led by a greatly improved jobs outlook to resume spending.”

The Consumer Reports Employment Index this month (49.9) is once again approaching positive territory, but is little changed from February (49.5). In the past 30 days, roughly the same proportion of Americans reported starting a new job (5.8%) as losing a job (6.0%).

The complete Consumer Reports Index report is available at www.ConsumerReports.org.

Hoots of derision

The Conference Board report was issued at the end of February with gasoline prices are at a record high for this early in the year but nevertheless found folks downright cheerful. Its Consumer Confidence Index jumped from from 61.5 in January to 70.8 in February. The index is at its highest level in 12 months.

That report brought hoots of derision from ConsumerAffairs readers.  

"This report is just another example of how media wants manipulate people's thoughts in to believing it's a majority," said Donna DeShon Phillips. 

"Who is the ultimate moron who came up with this bucket of horse manure?" asked Taipan Lam in a posting on ConsumerAffairs' Facebook wall. "This is insulting our intelligence."

That's not the only evidence of growing confidence, either. Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above the 13,000 level for the first time since well before the financial meltdown of October 2008 and the start of the Great Recession.

In case you haven't noticed lately, the economic headlines have been full of doom. Europe's credit crisis is threatening to spread, the International Monetary Fund has warned the global economy is in danger of collapse, oil prices are rising because of a feared showdown with Iran.

But U.S. consumers are looking on the bright side these days. The Conference Board's monthly Consumer Confidence Index rose to 64.5 in December from November's 55.2. The Present Situation Index increased to 46.7 from 38.3. The Expectations Index rose to 76.4 from 66.4.

In other words, consumers are feeling much better now than they were just a month ago, for whatever reason.

"After two months of considerable gains, the Consumer Confidence Index is now back to levels seen last spring,” said Lynn Franco, Director of The Conference Board Consumer Research Center. “Consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions improved again. Looking ahead, consumers are more optimistic that business conditions, employment prospects, and their financial situations will continue to get better. While consumers are ending the year in a somewhat more upbeat mood, it is too soon to tell if this is a rebound from earlier declines or a sustainable shift in attitudes."

Gas prices

What's behind the burst of optimism? It should be noted that the rising level of confidence coincides with the steady decline in gasoline prices. Even though prices at the pump are still higher than they were a year ago, the drop from high levels of the summer make filling up almost seem like a bargain.

The Conference Board assessment backs up early indications that U.S. retailers enjoyed stronger-than-expected holiday sales, despite a still-recovering economy. In the Conference Board report, the proportion of consumers expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months increased to 16.7 percent from 13.7 percent, while those expecting business conditions will worsen declined to 13.4 percent from 16.1 percent.

Consumers' outlook for the job market was also more favorable. Those anticipating more jobs in the months ahead increased to 13.3 percent from 12.4 percent, while those anticipating fewer jobs declined to 20.2 percent from 23.8 percent. The proportion of consumers expecting an increase in their incomes improved to 17.1 percent from 14.1 percent.

Consumers have a guarded outlook of the coming months as stress levels rise, employment remains flat and financial difficulties increase according to the Consumer Reports (CR) Index for February. 

The CR Trouble Tracker Index is up for the third straight month (58.7), revealing increasing financial difficulty for consumers. The index, which tracks the depth and breadth of financial difficulties among households, has climbed from 54.2 last month and from 53.4 one year ago. 

The gains in retail activity coupled with increased financial difficulty may lead to a credit crunch for some consumers, especially as missing payments on major bills (9.7 percent) or missing a mortgage payment (3.2 percent) are up from a year ago. Also, compared with last month, the number of consumers facing negative changes to their credit card terms (e.g., interest rates, penalty fees, credit limit) was up. 

The Consumer Reports Employment Index shows no sign of improvement, as it was unchanged from the prior month at 49.2 and on par with a year prior (49.0). In the past 30 days, 6.7 percent of those surveyed have lost their jobs, but only 5.2 percent have found new positions. 

“February’s Employment Index is indicative of an economy shedding more jobs than it is creating and this kept sentiment in negative territory, despite other measures that have shown gains,” said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center.  “While the share of those starting a new job was up nominally from January, growth is insufficient to seriously address the expanding pool of unemployed or fresh job seekers.” 

Stress rising

The compounding of these various negative factors may be reason for the rise in the magazine's Stress Index -- a measure of the stress consumers feel in their everyday lives versus a year ago.  Despite a significant drop in January, in February the index is up to 59.3 from 55.4 the prior month and is on par with one year ago (59.9). 

Despite the negative factors, some green shoots remain particularly when it comes to retail. The retail outlook is improving as the CR Past 30-Day Retail Index is up to 11.6 from last year (10.9).  Similar signs of improvement are revealed in the Next 30-Day Retail Index, which rose to 8.3, from 6.9 a year ago. Major home electronics and personal electronics are helping to fuel the retail gains for both indexes. 

After reaching its highest level in two years at 48.7 in January, the Sentiment Index held steady, matching the highest level recorded since October 2008.  An index below 50 represents negative consumer sentiment. 

The Consumer Reports Index report is made up of five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings: 

Sentiment Index

Consumer sentiment held steady, maintaining its gain from last month and stands at 48.7 -- its highest level in two years.

The most optimistic consumers: Age 18-34 at 55.5 (versus 57.2 the prior month), and households with income of $100K or more at 61.5 (compared with 57.4 a month earlier). The most pessimistic consumers: Households with income less than $50,000 at 44.2 (it was 42.7 the prior month), and those age 65 and older at 41.9 (versus 44.1 a month earlier). 

The index captures respondents’ attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. It can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0. 

Trouble Tracker Index

Consumers faced more troubles this month than the month before. The index increased to 58.7 in February from January’s 54.2 as well as one year ago (53.4).

Negative developments were led by an increase in consumers that were unable to afford medical bills or medications in the past 30 days to 17.0 percent, from 15.6 percent in January and 14.7 percent one year ago; and an increase in those that have lost or face reduced health-care coverage (9.3 percent), compared with 8.6 percent last month and 7.5 percent the prior year.

Overall, the most prevalent consumer troubles include: Unable to afford medical bills or medications (17 percent); Missed payment on a major bill -- not mortgage (9.7 percent); Lost or reduced health-care coverage (9.3 percent).

Lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, have been disproportionately affected. In the past 30 days: 26 percent unable to afford medical bills or medications; 14.1 percent missed payment on a major bill (not a mortgage); 12.9 percent Lost or reduced health-care coverage; and 11.7 percent lost job, versus 6.7 percent among all consumers. 

The Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced health-care coverage or the denial of personal loans. The index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered. 

Retail Index

Retail continues its recovery. The Past 30-Day Retail Index (reflective of January activity) is 11.6, up from 10.9 last year. Similarly the Next 30-Day Retail Index, reflecting planned purchasing for February, is 8.3, up from 6.9 one year ago. 

Looking in detail at the categories in the Past 30-Day Retail Index (major appliances, small appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, major yard/garden equipment), gains are attributable to several categories, including major appliances (7.1 percent, versus 6.3 percent a year ago), major home electronics (15.0 percent, compared with 13.9 percent last year), and personal electronics (25.5 percent as opposed to 23.6 percent last year).

The Next 30-Day Retail Index for February -- reflecting February activity -- is 8.3, compared with one year ago (6.9), with personal electronics (17.5 percent, versus 13.2 percent) and major home electronics (9.8 percent, compared with 6.8 percent) accounting for the gains. Planned purchasing for personal electronics is anticipated to be up in February versus the prior month as well (15.9 percent).

Among the non-index categories (new car, used car, home), past 30-day purchasing -- reflecting January activity -- was soft versus one year ago. Past 30-day purchasing for new cars was 1.8 percent, for used cars 4.3 percent, and 1.9 percent for homes. Planned purchasing in February reflects increasing confidence among consumers, with small gains versus one year ago for new cars 3.0 percent, up from 2.7 percent; used cars 5.1 percent, up from 3.7 percent; homes 2.2 percent, up from 1.7 percent. 

The Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30 days across several categories. It represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment. The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately. 

Employment Index

The Consumer Reports Employment Index remains weak in February (49.2) and is unchanged from January. In the past 30 days, the proportion of consumers that have lost their job is 6.7 percent, virtually unchanged from a month earlier (6.5 percent). The share of those that have started a job in the past 30 days (5.2 percent) is comparable to a month earlier (4.9 percent), but is much improved from one year ago (3.8 percent). The Index points to two groups that have fared worst this month: adults 35 to 64 years of age (47.8), and those in households earning less than $50,000 (46.6). 

The Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their job or were laid off in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30 days. 

Stress Index

The level of stress consumers feel they are under is up to 59.3 from the prior month (55.4), but is on par with one year ago (59.9). 

The Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When the index is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared to a year ago. It can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

American consumers are seeing some real improvements this month, according to the Consumer Reports Index for October, with economic difficulties continuing to decline, an improved retail picture and modest gains in employment.

 The CR Trouble Tracker Index has declined for four straight months and now stands at 50.5 -- down nearly three points from the prior month and well below its recent high of 63.5 in June.

 Positive developments were led by a decline in consumers unable to afford medical care or medications, to 12.7 percent from 13.6 percent in September; and a drop in the proportion of Americans who missed a payment on a major bill. On the downside, in the past 30 days, 3.0 percent reported they have missed a payment on their mortgage, compared with 2.4 percent in September.

 Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index for October is 9.9, on par with the prior month (9.8), but down from a year ago (10.4). There was a slight increase in consumer purchasing for personal electronics (23.2 percent, up 1.8 percentage points), and small appliances (18.5 percent, up 1.9 percentage points).

 Consumer Reports Next 30-Day Retail Index stands at 7.4, down from the prior month (7.6), capping three months of decline since July (8.5).Small appliances posted a slight gain in October (11.5) from the prior month (10.6).

 Jobs outlook

The Consumer Reports Employment Index is up slightly this month to 49.5 from 49.1 in September. Overall labor force activity is modest, with fewer people claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days (5.7 percent), than those that lost their job (6.7 percent).

 Job losses (6.7 percent) were largely unchanged from the prior month (6.9 percent), while job gains were up slightly (5.7 percent) from September (5.0 percent).The employment index remains in negative territory, with job losses outpacing gains.

 Confidence low, stress up

 The Consumer Reports Consumer Sentiment Index is currently at 44.8. Sentiment has doggedly refused to enter positive territory (over 50) since it was first measured by the Consumer Reports Index on October 5, 2008 and stood at 45.3. The CR Stress Index is up in October to 63.2 from 60.1 the prior month, and is at its highest level since April 2010 when it hit 63.8.

 "Americans appear to be experiencing less financial woes, but the key factor continuing to depress consumers is weak employment growth," said Ed Farrell, a director of the Consumer Reports National Research Center."The lack of real improvement on the jobs front will dampen any meaningful improvement in economic activity."

 The Consumer Reports Index report, comprises five key indices: the Sentiment Index, the Trouble Tracker Index, the Stress Index, the Retail Index, and the Employment Index. Here are the key findings:

 Consumer Reports Sentiment Index

 The Consumer Reports Sentiment Index has changed little since October 2009, and now stands at 44.8, virtually unchanged from September (44.1).The most optimistic consumers are between the ages of 18-34 and those with household incomes of $100,000 or more. The most pessimistic are between the ages of 35-64 and 65 or older and those with household incomes under $50,000.

 The Index captures respondents' attitudes regarding their financial situation, asking them if they are feeling better or worse off than a year ago. When the index is greater than 50, more consumers are feeling positive about their situation. When it is below 50, more consumers are feeling worse. The Sentiment Index can vary from a high of 100 to a low of 0.

 Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index

The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker Index showed further improvement this month, pointing to fewer troubles for consumers, dropping to 50.5 in October from 53.7 in September, and is down substantially from one year ago (65.5).

Positive developments were led by a decline in consumers unable to afford medical care or medications, to 12.7 percent from 13.6 percent in September; and a drop in the proportion of people who missed a payment on a major bill.

On the downside, in the past 30 days, 3.0 percent reported that they have missed a payment on their mortgage, versus 2.4 percent in September. The leading problems faced by consumers include:

-- Unable to afford medical bills or medications (12.7 percent)

-- Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage (8.7 percent)

-- Credit card increased rates/fees, reduced credit line (7.6 percent)

Lower-income households, earning less than $50,000 a year, have been disproportionately affected. In the past 30 days:

-- Unable to afford medical bills or medications (20.6 percent)

-- Missed payment on a major bill - not mortgage (14.4 percent)

--Credit card increased rates/fees, reduced credit line (10.1 percent)

The Consumer Reports Trouble Tracker focuses on both the proportion of consumers that have faced difficulties as well as the number of negative events they have encountered. The negative events include: the inability to pay medical bills or afford medication, missed mortgage payments, home foreclosure, interest-rate increase, penalty fees, reduced lines of credit or other changes in credit-card terms, job loss or layoffs, reduced healthcare coverage, or the denial of personal loans.

The Tracker Index is then calculated as the proportion of consumers that have experienced at least one of the negative events comprising the index multiplied by the average number of events encountered.

Consumer Reports Retail Index

The Consumer Reports Past 30-Day Retail Index for October, reflective of September activity, is 9.9 -- on par with the prior month but down from a year ago.

Looking at the category purchases over the past 30 days, there were slight increases logged for personal electronics and small appliances. Among the non-index categories for past 30-day purchases, new cars were up slightly from the prior month, but used cars were down from the month before. Home purchases were off slightly from the September pace.

The Next 30-Day Retail Index, reflective of planned purchases for October, is at 7.4, posting three months of decline from July's recent high of 8.5, and also is down from a year ago.

Within the only small appliances posted a slight gain from the prior month.Among non-index categories, new and used cars are holding steady relative to the prior month. Planned purchasing for homes in the next 30 days, reflecting planned October activity, is up from September, and is at its strongest level of the past nine months.

The Consumer Reports Retail Index looks at consumer purchases in the past 30 days as well as the outlook for planned purchases in the next 30-days across several categories. It represents the proportion of respondents that made a purchase in the following categories: major home appliances, small home appliances, major home electronics, personal electronics, and major yard and garden equipment.

The Retail Index is a weighted calculation. For example, a major appliance is of greater value than a small appliance. Because of their size and frequency, car and home purchases are tracked separately.

Consumer Reports Stress Index

The CR Stress Index is up to 63.2 in October from 60.1 the prior month. Stress has increased steadily over the past two months, and now stands at its highest level since April 2010.

 The Reports Stress Index captures attitudes regarding the amount of stress consumers feel compared to a year ago. It asks whether they are feeling more stressed or less stressed. When it is more than 50, consumers are feeling more stress and when it is below 50 they are feeling less stress compared with a year ago. The index can vary from 100 (Total Stress) to a low of 0 (No Stress).

Consumer Reports Employment Index

 The magazine's Employment Index is up slightly in October (49.5) from the prior month (49.1).

 Overall labor force activity is sluggish, with fewer people claiming to have started a new job in the past 30 days -- 5.7 percent -- than the 6.7 percent that lost their job. Job gains were up slightly from the prior month.

 Job losses in the past 30 days were largely unchanged from September. Workers earning less than $50,000 have been hit the hardest.

The Consumer Reports Employment Index examines the change in employment of those that reported starting a new job versus those that have lost their jobs in the past 30 days. An index below 50 indicates more jobs were lost than gained, while a score more than 50 indicates more jobs were gained than lost in the past 30-