Deloitte expects 2025 holiday retail sales to grow between 2.9% and 3.4%, reaching up to $1.62 trillion.
E-commerce sales are forecast to rise 7% to 9%, totaling as much as $310.7 billion.
Steady growth in disposable personal income may offset inflation and economic uncertainty.
U.S. holiday retail sales are projected to increase modestly in 2025 as consumers navigate economic uncertainty while continuing to spend, according to Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast.
The consulting firm predicts overall holiday sales will climb between 2.9% and 3.4% compared with 2024, totaling between $1.61 trillion and $1.62 trillion for the November through January shopping season.
The forecast suggests slower growth than last year’s 4.2% increase, which brought total holiday sales to $1.57 trillion, according to U.S. Census Bureau data. However, Deloitte notes that the spending outlook remains solid despite persistent inflation and concerns about consumer debt.
Online shopping is expected to remain a major driver of holiday spending. Deloitte forecasts e-commerce sales will rise between 7% and 9% year-over-year, totaling between $305 billion and $310.7 billion. That’s up from an estimated $285 billion in online holiday sales last year.
‘Value and convenience’
“Consumers continue to turn to digital channels to find value and convenience,” said Natalie Martini, Deloitte vice chair and U.S. retail and consumer products leader. “Retailers who remain focused on delivering value throughout the season have a prime opportunity to drive growth during what continues to be a critical time for their businesses.”
A key factor supporting retail spending is expected growth in disposable personal income (DPI), which Deloitte projects will rise 3.1% to 5.4% this season. According to Akrur Barua, economist at Deloitte Insights, DPI remains one of the strongest predictors of both retail and e-commerce sales.
“Steady growth in income can help offset some economic uncertainty, including any labor market weakness and the burden of high credit card and student debt on consumer spending,” Barua said. He added that while inflation will likely weigh on sales volume, it could boost the dollar value of overall retail spending.
Consumer resilience
Despite macroeconomic pressures, Deloitte expects the 2025 holiday season to reflect the resilience of U.S. consumers. Shoppers are expected to continue seeking deals and leveraging e-commerce to stretch their budgets, particularly amid rising prices and debt concerns.
As the holiday season approaches, retailers that prioritize value, convenience, and digital engagement are likely to capture the largest share of consumer spending during this pivotal period.