In a weekend television interview, President Trump declined to rule out a recession. When Trump appeared on Fox News’s Sunday Morning Futures, host Maria Bartiromo asked the president if the economy could slip into a recession because of tariffs.
“I hate to predict things like that,” Trump said. “There is a period of transition. Because what we’re doing is very big. We’re bringing wealth back to America. That’s a big thing. And there are always periods of it takes a little time.”
But on another Sunday news show – NBC’s Meet The Press – Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick was emphatic. Despite the tariffs, government layoffs and spending cuts, Lutnick predicted the economy would remain strong.
“There’s going to be no recession in America,” Lutnick said. “Global tariffs are going to come down because President Trump has said, ‘You want to charge us 100%? We’re going to charge you 100%.’”
However, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appears to be on the same page as the president. In an interview on CNBC late last week, Bessent acknowledged some weakness in the economy.
‘Starting to roll a bit’
“Could we be seeing that this economy that we inherited starting to roll a bit?” he asked. “Sure. And look, there’s going to be a natural adjustment as we move away from public spending to private spending.” Bessent said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box.”
Bessent said the economy and the stock market had become “addicted to this government spending, and there’s going to be a detox period.”
The technical definition of a recession is two consecutive quarters of declining gross domestic product. The combination of tariffs on imported goods and rising unemployment could contribute to a recession. If consumers cut spending, either because prices have gone up or they are unemployed, economic growth could slow.