Current Events in February 2016

Economists have a variety of tools to measure economic progress or a lack thereof. U-Haul track rentals has a very simple gauge.

Each year it tallies up the number of one-way truck rentals out of an area and the number arriving.

In 2014, it says there were more U-Haul trucks leaving Chicago than arriving. Last year, the trend reversed, running counter to the state as a whole.

The turnaround was enough to earn the Windy City the number five spot on U-Haul's Top 10 U.S. Growth Cities for 2015.

"As a global transportation and communications hub, Chicago is attracting more major company headquarters each year as businesses recognize the region is one of the best places to live, work and visit in the nation," said Theresa E. Mintle, president and CEO of the Chicagoland Chamber of Commerce.

Pivotal year

U-Haul says 2015 was a pivotal year for Chicago. Company records show Chicago had 50.6% of one-way truck rental customers coming into the city as opposed to leaving. That was up from 49.6% in 2014, when out-bound traffic was in the majority.

U-Haul notes the city is still dealing with negative issues but that data suggests a turnaround is in progress.

"There are more than 400 neighborhood festivals every year in Chicago, each with food, culture and music to enjoy," Jamie Lee, president of U-Haul Company of North Shore Chicago, said in a release. "The views from the rooftops and sky decks are breathtaking, no matter if you are a visitor or a resident. When you see the cityscape, it's stunning."

Political issues

The rest of Illinois' housing market is still dealing with some headwinds entering 2016. In a forum sponsored by the Illinois Association of Realtors, economists said factors such as available housing inventory, job growth, and ongoing political issues could have an impact.

Geoffrey Hewings, director of the Regional Economics Applications Laboratory (REAL) at the University of Illinois, said the state's political impasse has the potential to affect the housing market. It could create economic uncertainty that could hinder future home sales and prices, he said.

Currently, the state's Republican governor and Democratic House speaker are in a stand-off over taxes and spending.

Getting the most bang for your buck from your healthcare spending is not a simple matter. Since what you pay for care goes through an insurance provider, it tends to complicate things.

You have to factor in what you pay for health insurance as well as what you end up paying out of pocket to the provider. In nearly every case, it's more than you think.

There are several things to consider. Most people focus first on the monthly premiums. If you can't afford them, then the coverage doesn't do you much good.

The advisors at Healthcare.gov suggest that other things are just as important as the monthly premium. You also need to deliberate on what services will cost beyond your coverage.

You also need to consider the type of insurance plan and the provider network. Different plan types provide different levels of coverage for care you get inside and outside of the plan’s network of doctors, hospitals, pharmacies, and other medical service providers.

High deductible plans

Getting a health insurance plan with a high deductible will lower your monthly cost but can add a significant cost in the event of expensive medical care. New research shows consumers on high-deductible plans are no better at price shopping for health care professionals or services than people on traditional insurance.

“The main message of our research is this: Giving skin in the game or giving people financial incentives is not enough to prompt people to become better consumers of health care,” co-author Neeraj Sood, director of research at the University of Southern California (USC), said in a release.

More and more Americans are enrolled in high-deductible plans. Sood said about one in four U.S. employees are enrolled in high-deductible plans while about 80% of the people insured through the health care exchanges are enrolled in some sort of high-deductible plan.

Price differences

Since consumers with high-deductible plans pay much of their initial health care costs out of pocket, you would think they would be better at choosing lower-cost providers. The USC survey, in fact, found that most people with high-deductible plans aren't convinced that high cost providers provide better care. So why use them?

Yet the survey found only about 10% of consumers with high-deductible plans did comparison shopping for providers. Sood says there may be two reasons for that.

“For one, it’s a hassle and very difficult to get good information about the prices and the quality of care by doctors, labs or other services,” he said. “And two, when it comes to doctors and services, people are concerned about quality of care, but there is not much information available about quality.”

The way consumers with high-deductible plans usually save money on health care is by reducing the number of visits to the doctor. In some cases, that's counter productive if preventive care or early detection could have prevented major complications later on.

Consumers found themselves with more money in their pockets as the holiday shopping season got underway -- and tucked a good chunk of it away.

The Commerce Department reports personal income rose $42.5 billion, or 0.3% in December, while disposable personal income (DPI) -- personal income less personal current taxes -- increased $37.8 billion or 0.3%. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) dipped $0.7 billion, or less than 0.1%.

In November, personal income was up 0.3%, DPI rose 0.2 percent, and PCE increased by 0.5%, according to revised estimates.

Compensation

Wages and salaries rose $13.1 billion in December, after surging $37.9 billion a month earlier. Within that category, private wages and salaries were up $10.3 billion, and government wages and salaries inched up $2.8 billion.

Supplements to wages and salaries advanced $4.8 billion.

Personal spending and saving

Personal outlays -- PCE, personal interest payments, and personal current transfer payments -- increased $2.0 billion in December after surging $62.1 billion in November.

Personal saving -- DPI less personal outlays -- was $753.5 billion in December, up $35.7 billion from the month before. The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.5%, versus with 5.3% in November.

The complete report is available on the Commerce Department website.

Are you ready for some football? You've got a lot of company.

The National Retail Federation's (NRF) Super Bowl Spending Survey conducted by Prosper Insights and Analytics, say an estimated 188.9 million football fans, foodies, and social butterflies in the U.S. plan to watch the Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers battle it out in Super Bowl 50 on February 7 -- up more than five million from those who planned to watch last year.

Those celebrating will also spend an average of $82.19 on food, decor, team apparel, and more -- the highest in the survey’s history. Total spending is expected to top $15.5 billion.

“Two great teams going head-to-head and a historic game celebrating the 50th Super Bowl could make this one of the most-celebrated football games we’ve seen in some time,” said NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay. “We expect retailers will be aggressive with promotions on food and decorations as well as athletic wear and electronics in the coming days as they look to entice those planning to watch the Super Bowl.”

Survey highlights

• 34.7% say the football game is the most important part of the day (85 million) while 17.7% say the commercials are (43.4 million), and another 4.5% say enjoying the fun food is the most important for them (11 million);
• 43.3 million fans are planning to throw a Super Bowl party (17.7%) while another 70 million say they’d rather let their friends and relatives do the hosting and attend one instead (28.6%);
• 79.8% of partygoers and viewers will buy food;
• 7.7% plan to buy a new TV to enjoy the game, which could amount to an estimated 8.6 million new televisions;
• 11.1% of those planning to watch the game will buy new team apparel and/or accessories -- an estimated 20.9 million new items purchased;
• Nearly eight in 10 (78.6%) Americans say they watch the commercials during the Super Bowl as entertainment, while 17.5% say they make them aware of advertisers’ brands, and 10.3% said they influence them to buy products from the advertisers.

“The Super Bowl has become much more than something only football fans dream about for the entirety of the season,” said Prosper’s Principal Analyst Pam Goodfellow. “The growth in celebrations this year could be a result of increased interest among individuals who use sites like Twitter and Pinterest to bring out their creative skills when it comes to DIY party projects and even making festive game-day fare. Super Bowl Sunday is now more than just a game, it’s an experience for all.”

The demographics

• 12.9% of 18-24 year olds say the halftime show is the most important part of Super Bowl Sunday for them, the highest of any age group. 
• 20.4% of 45-54 year olds say the commercials are the most important part of the day; 20.2% of 35-44 year olds agree
• 47.9% of 18-24 year olds are planning to attend a Super Bowl party -- significantly higher than the next highest age group – 38.7% of 25-34 year olds;
• 29.9% of 25-34 year olds will host a party, more than any other age group.