Consumers' inflation fears soar to 30-year high

American consumers' long-term inflation expectations have surged to the highest level in nearly three decades, driven by concerns that President Donald Trump’s tariffs will lead to higher prices.

The latest data from the University of Michigan shows that consumers now anticipate inflation to rise at an annual rate of 3.5% over the next five to ten years, marking the highest reading since 1995.

The increase in inflation expectations has been largely influenced by political sentiment, with the rise almost entirely driven by Democratic survey respondents. The economic uncertainty surrounding trade policies has reignited fears about rising costs across essential goods and services, adding pressure to an already fragile economic climate.

Consumer sentiment down

The University of Michigan’s final consumer sentiment index for February dropped to 64.7 from 71.7 in January, a steeper decline than analysts predicted. The fall in sentiment was particularly pronounced among Democrats and political independents, reflecting a politically polarized response to economic policies.

All five components of the index experienced a decline, including consumer assessments of their financial situation and expectations for business conditions. A notable factor was a significant drop in buying conditions for big-ticket items such as homes, cars, and appliances. Rising price expectations and fears of job instability appear to have dampened consumer confidence.

Rising concerns over employment

More than half of survey respondents expect the unemployment rate to increase over the next year, the highest proportion since the pandemic-induced economic uncertainty of 2020. This pessimism underscores the lingering concerns over the broader economic impact of ongoing trade policies and potential retaliatory measures from other nations.

The tariffs, which have been a cornerstone of President Trump’s economic strategy, have prompted debate over their long-term effects. While the administration argues that the tariffs are necessary to protect domestic industries and reduce trade imbalances, critics warn that they could lead to increased costs for businesses and consumers, ultimately weighing on economic growth.

Market reaction 

The stock market responded negatively to the weak economic data, with major indices experiencing declines amid concerns that higher inflation expectations and reduced consumer confidence could slow economic growth. Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence noted that a sustained increase in inflation expectations could prompt the Federal Reserve to take a more aggressive stance on interest rates, further tightening financial conditions.

Economic experts warn that if consumers continue to expect higher inflation, it could become a self-fulfilling prophecy, leading businesses to preemptively raise prices and workers to demand higher wages, fueling an inflationary cycle.

The Federal Reserve has previously indicated that managing inflation expectations is a key component of its monetary policy strategy, and the latest data will likely be closely scrutinized by policymakers.

As inflation concerns mount, all eyes will be on the Federal Reserve’s next steps and the administration’s trade policies. Whether the surge in inflation expectations translates into actual price increases remains to be seen, but the latest data underscores the growing unease among American consumers about the direction of the economy.