Consumer Confidence Trends

After three straight months of declines, consumer confidence, as measured by the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, rose in August. The Index now stands at 103.2, a significant increase from 95.3 in July. 

The Present Situation Index, based on consumers’ feelings about business and labor market conditions, gained six points in the index. The Expectations Index, based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions, increased to 75.1 from 65.6.

“The Present Situation Index recorded a gain for the first time since March,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The Expectations Index likewise improved from July’s nine-year low, but remains below a reading of 80, suggesting recession risks continue. Concerns about inflation continued their retreat but remained elevated.”

So it’s not like everything’s rosy all of a sudden. Consumers are still having to deal with inflation just about everywhere. 

Falling gas prices may boost confidence

But it might not be a coincidence that consumers are gaining confidence as gasoline prices, which hit a record high in June, have come down significantly since then. According to AAA, the national average price of regular gasoline is $3.83 a gallon, down from its recent record of $5.01.

At the same time, job growth is slowing. The Labor Department reported this week that the number of job openings was little changed at 11.2 million on the last business day of July. Hires and total job losses were also little changed.

After reviewing the consumer confidence data, Robert Hughes of the American Institute for Economic Research, writes that consumers may be enjoying lower gas prices but still encounter higher prices elsewhere and don’t expect them to go down anytime soon.

Still high inflation expectations

“Inflation expectations remain extremely high as prices for many goods and services continue to rise at an elevated pace,” Hughes said. “The extreme outlook for inflation is a key driver of weaker consumer expectations.

Hughes believes there is reason for some optimism that supply chain bottlenecks are being resolved and that shortages will soon dissipate, removing some of the upward pressure on prices.

Franco also sees glimmers of hope in the latest report. She notes that more consumers have indicated they plan a major purchase soon and that intentions to take a vacation reached an eight-month high in August.

Between record-high gas prices, infant formula shortages, and surging grocery bills, May was a tough month for consumers.

That’s reflected in the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index, which declined in May after a small increase in April. Rising prices appear to be taking a toll on consumers’ pocketbooks and are affecting their overall outlook.

“Purchasing intentions for cars, homes, major appliances, and more all cooled—likely a reflection of rising interest rates and consumers pivoting from big-ticket items to spending on services,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. 

Franco also said consumers appear to be reevaluating summer vacation plans because of rising hotel rates and airfares.

“Indeed, inflation remains top of mind for consumers, with their inflation expectations in May virtually unchanged from April's elevated levels,” Franco stated. “Looking ahead, expect surging prices and additional interest rate hikes to pose continued downside risks to consumer spending this year."

Consumers feeling inflationary pressure

An analysis of recent reviews posted at ConsumerAffairs also suggests that some consumers are feeling inflationary pressures. Kenneth, of Manchester, Pa., told us he was “very satisfied” with the coverage he was receiving from CarShield but recently decided he could no longer afford it.

“They helped me with two repairs I would not have wanted to deal with alone,” Kenneth wrote in a ConsumerAffairs review. “Unfortunately with the past years growing inflation with everything from groceries to gas I had to cancel my subscription, sadly.” 

Brett, of Jackson, Miss., was considering Smile Direct but was reluctant to sign up because the $90 monthly fee was outside his current comfort zone.

“I knew I couldn't afford much,  inflation has hit my family hard, especially groceries and gas, and as the sole income, I can't stray far from the budget,” Brett told us.

Inflation isn’t the only thing that weighed on consumers’ minds last month. Despite the well-publicized difficulty that businesses have had hiring employees, consumers are feeling less secure in the workplace.

The Conference Board report shows that 51.8% of consumers described jobs as "plentiful," down from 54.8% in April. Just over 12% of consumers said jobs are "hard to get," up from 10.1%.

Consumers remain in an unhappy mood this month, as measured by the Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index. After falling in January, the index declined again this month, with rising prices being a chief concern.

"Concerns about inflation rose again in February, after posting back-to-back declines,” said Lynn Franco, the Conference Board’s senior director of Economic Indicators. “Despite this reversal, consumers remain relatively confident about short-term growth prospects. While they do not expect the economy to pick up steam in the near future, they also do not foresee conditions worsening.”

But there are plenty of things to worry about, especially regarding inflation. The price of gasoline is now averaging around $3.53 a gallon for regular, 23 cents a gallon more than at the beginning of the year. Sanctions against Russia could reduce the amount of oil on world markets and push prices up even more.

Housing concerns

Rents are skyrocketing. In many markets, the payment on an entry-level home is cheaper than renting. But Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of Realtors, says finding an entry-level home is getting harder.

"There are more listings at the upper end – homes priced above $500,000 – compared to a year ago, which should lead to less hurried decisions by some buyers," Yun said. "Clearly, more supply is needed at the lower end of the market in order to achieve more equitable distribution of housing wealth."

Yun says the median existing-home price for all housing types in January was $350,300, up 15.4% from January 2021, making the housing affordability issue even worse.

Credit card worries

In another measure of the financial stress that many consumers face at the start of 2022, personal finance site WalletHub has published a study showing that about 42 million Americans expect to miss at least one credit card payment this year.

"The financial stress caused by the pandemic has reshaped the way people look at money,” WalletHub analyst Jill Gonzalez told ConsumerAffairs. “However, according to WalletHub's economic index, consumers are significantly more confident about their financial outlook now than they were at the end of 2020. This is an indication that the overall economy is recovering from the effects of the pandemic."

Despite that recovery, growing economic concerns appear to be reflected in the Conference Board’s latest survey. Fewer consumers expect an increase in income in the next six weeks, while about 12% expect their incomes to go down.

Franco says the results suggest that confidence and consumer spending will continue to face headwinds from rising prices in the coming months.

Consumer sentiment dropped sharply from January, according to the latest University of Michigan consumer confidence survey.

The monthly index dropped to 61.7 in February, a significant one-month move from the January reading of 67.2. The consensus among economists surveyed before the release was that confidence would be little changed from January.

But there were a number of factors weighing on consumer attitudes. Inflation is raising the cost of food and gasoline, the COVID-19 pandemic seems to be never-ending, and geopolitical tensions are rising.

Consumers are reacting in different ways. Thomas, of Clarksville, Ind., tells us he is investing in gold.

“Noble Gold's representative helped me to handle the transfer of a portion of my IRA to gold,” Thomas wrote in a recent ConsumerAffairs review. “A wise precaution in the inflationary environment ahead.”

Affluent households are the most pessimistic

The survey shows that the biggest decline in consumer sentiment is in relatively affluent households – those earning at least six figures. The sentiment among that group fell by 16.1% in early February from the previous month. 

"Sentiment continued its downward descent, reaching its worst level in a decade, falling a stunning 8.2% from last month and 19.7% from last February," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist. "The recent declines have been driven by weakening personal financial prospects, largely due to rising inflation, less confidence in the government's economic policies, and the least favorable long-term economic outlook in a decade."

The most recent inflation data put the decline in context. Last week, the Labor Department reported that inflation increased 0.6% from December to January. Over a 12-month period, inflation is growing at a rate of 7.5%, the highest in 40 years.

The cost of food is up 7% year-over-year. Gasoline is up 40% during the same period, and the cost of shelter has risen 4.4%, according to the government report.

The authors of the University of Michigan survey say the plunge in consumer sentiment this month is the largest in more than a decade. However, they also say it's part of a recent trend. Higher-income earners are especially worried, believing their inflation-adjusted incomes will decline in the months ahead.

With cases of the Omicron variant rising along with prices, January is turning out to be a rough month for consumers. The Conference Board reports that consumer confidence declined this month, with the index falling nearly two points from December.

In particular, consumers appear to have concerns about the future. The Expectations Index—based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions—declined to 90.8 from 95.4. 

"Consumer confidence moderated in January, following gains in the final three months of 2021," said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "The Present Situation Index improved, suggesting the economy entered the new year on solid footing. However, expectations about short-term growth prospects weakened, pointing to a likely moderation in growth during the first quarter of 2022.”

The survey found that some consumers have yet to feel any meaningful impact from inflation, but others have. The word “inflation” has begun to show up in reviews that consumers post about a wide range of companies.

Brenda, of Grand Saline, Texas, recently had a medical procedure and really needed her recently canceled Synchrony credit card.

“I had counted on my credit cards to help pay for necessities so that I can pay the high cost of blood thinners that I will need to keep the stent from becoming blocked,” Brenda wrote in a ConsumerAffairs review. “Our income is too high for assistance, but with inflation, it's not enough to make ends meet.”

Inflation worries still high

Franco says that, overall, the monthly survey found slightly fewer concerns about inflation. However, rising prices remain a background concern after hitting a 13-month high in November.

“Concerns about the pandemic increased slightly, amid the ongoing Omicron surge,” Franco said. “Looking ahead, both confidence and consumer spending may continue to be challenged by rising prices and the ongoing pandemic."

That said, the survey found that the percentage of consumers who are planning to purchase homes, automobiles, and major appliances over the next six months all increased.

In a report on Friday, economists from the University of Michigan said a key consumer sentiment measure declined significantly in early August. The consumer sentiment index fell to 70.2 earlier this month, down more than 13% from July’s reading of 81.2.

The sudden drop, which experts described as “rare,” suggests that the Delta variant may be creating uncertainty about what lies ahead for the economy. The reading represents a low not seen since 2011. 

“Over the past half century, the Sentiment Index has only recorded larger losses in six other surveys, all connected to sudden negative changes in the economy,” Richard Curtin, the chief economist for Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers, said in a release.

Delta variant impact

Curtin said the drop could have been spurred by the rise in cases of the Delta variant. The surge in cases has prompted some states and localities to reintroduce mask mandates and other restrictions. 

He added that consumer confidence could rebound in the months ahead, especially if matters stabilize on the pandemic front. 

“Consumers have correctly reasoned that the economy’s performance will be diminished over the next several months, but the extraordinary surge in negative economic assessments also reflects an emotional response, mainly from dashed hopes that the pandemic would soon end,” Curtin said. “In the months ahead, it is likely that consumers will again voice more reasonable expectations, and with control of the Delta variant, shift toward outright optimism.”

Although the early August consumer sentiment index suggests uncertainty among consumers, other metrics -- including weekly jobless claims -- have suggested that the economy is recovering from its pandemic lows. The Labor Department said recently that the economy added 943,000 jobs last month, which is more than most economists expected. 

With millions of Americans now vaccinated and eligibility open to just about everyone, consumers have decided things are looking up. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index rose sharply in April.

The monthly measure of how consumers are feeling about the economy checked in at 121.7, a substantial gain from 109 in March. Much of the overall gain was based on how consumers feel right now. 

The Present Situation Index — based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions — jumped from 110.1 to 139.6. However, consumers are less certain about the future. The Expectations Index showed only a slight gain from March to April.

Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, says the index that measures consumer’s confidence about their financial standing is at its highest level since February 2020, just before the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic brought the economy to an overnight standstill.

"Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved significantly in April, suggesting the economic recovery strengthened further in early Q2,” Franco said. “Consumers' optimism about the short-term outlook held steady this month.”

Jobs and stimulus checks

Franco said there could be a couple of factors driving the optimism. Job prospects are improving as businesses are actively looking for employees. And it doesn’t hurt that most consumers by now have received the latest round of stimulus checks.

“Vacation intentions posted a healthy increase, likely boosted by the accelerating vaccine rollout and further loosening of pandemic restrictions," Franco said.

But while there was a big increase in the percentage of consumers who think business conditions are good and jobs are plentiful, that optimism doesn’t carry too far into the future.

The percentage of consumers who think business conditions will improve over the next six months increased, but only slightly -- from 40.3% to 40.5%. Only 11.9% think things will get worse in that time but that’s the same percentage as March.

The percentage of consumers predicting an increase in jobs in six months actually declined, from 35.9% to 34.5%.

The possibility that cryptocurrencies could become a part of everyday life has received a major vote of confidence. In a new report -- “Bitcoin At the Tipping Point” -- Citigroup suggests that the virtual currency could become “the currency of choice for international trade” if all continues to go well for it. The company says that step could be the start of a “massive transformation of cryptocurrency into the mainstream.” 

And if things don’t go well? The Citigroup team says that “speculative implosion” could happen. Analysts explained the potential failure, saying that there are “a host of risks and obstacles that stand in the way of Bitcoin progress. But weighing these potential hurdles against the opportunities leads to the conclusion that Bitcoin is at a tipping point.”

According to the report, Bitcoin’s enormous upside has been driven by recent aggressive moves by companies like Tesla, which invested $1.5 billion in the currency, and Mastercard, which has decided to accept some cryptocurrencies as payments later this year.

“Gold is dead”

The Citi report explains that Bitcoin has worked its way through several stages so far:  technological oddity, censorship-resistant money, and digital gold. It’s that last part that has many analysts cheering the cryptocurrency on, primarily because there is a current lack of alternative gold-like assets. The company says the need for those will only continue to grow. 

“Because of what is going on in the world, besides there being a growing need for money or storehold of wealth assets that are limited in supply, there is also a growing need for assets that can be privately held. Because there aren’t many of these gold-like storehold of wealth assets that can be held in privacy and because the sizes of their markets are relatively small, there exists the possibility that Bitcoin and its competitors can fill that growing need,” Dalio wrote.

The biggest question with Bitcoin, Dalio says, is what it can realistically be used for and what amount of demand it will have. “Since the supply is known, one has to estimate the demand to estimate its price.” While gold can be mined from the earth, bitcoin can only be mined via computational means. Bitcoin’s source code dictates a limited and finite supply of 21 million bitcoins that will ever be produced. 

Billionaire Mark Cuban’s take on the gold vs. bitcoin debate is that the former is "dead.” In a debate with gold lovers on Twitter, he explained his stance this way: “Gold is hyped as much as Crypto. Do we really need gold jewelry? Gold can make you a ring. (Bitcoin and Ethereum) are technologies that can make you a banker, allow friction free exchange of value and are extensible into an unlimited range of biz and personal applications”

The truth is, Cuban doesn’t see gold as having much of a future and will eventually die as a “store of value” (SOV). "What we are seeing built w/crypto today is just proof of concept. As tech continues to get better/cheaper/faster there will be new applications and maybe even something that supersedes what we know as crypto today," Cuban tweeted. "But Gold won't ever change. Which is why it will die as a SOV." 

Cuban ended his debate with a reminder that gold, like bitcoin, was also an SOV built on “mining” technology. “From picks and shovels to mining operations that keep trying to improve. Whoever could use the tech of the day to find and mine the most efficiently was the most rewarded. Much like Crypto is today," he concluded.

Consumer confidence increased slightly in January, despite the fact that cases of the coronavirus (COVID-19) are increasing and U.S. deaths from the pandemic surpassed 400,000 this month.

The Conference Board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Index rose to 89.3 this month after falling to 87.1 in December. Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board, said the monthly survey shows consumers are well aware of the current challenges posed by the pandemic but are hopeful about the future.

"Consumers' expectations for the economy and jobs advanced further, suggesting that consumers foresee conditions improving in the not-too-distant future,” she said. “In addition, the percent of consumers who said they intend to purchase a home in the next six months improved, suggesting that the pace of home sales should remain robust in early 2021."

But all of that optimism may be months away from being realized. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – fell this month from 87.2 to 84.4. The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – increased from 87.0 in December to 92.5 this month.  

For example, the percentage of consumers saying business conditions are "good" increased from 15.4 percent to 15.8 percent, but those claiming business conditions are "bad" also increased, from 39.7 percent to 42.8 percent. 

Hopes for a better job market

With unemployment claims rising over the last month, consumers' assessment of the labor market was also less favorable. The percentage of consumers saying jobs are "plentiful" declined from 21.0 percent to 20.6 percent, while those claiming jobs are "hard to get" rose from 22.9 percent to 23.8 percent.

The bright spot in the survey is the short-term future. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions to get better over the next six months rose from 29.5 percent to 33.7 percent. The percentage of consumers expecting business conditions will worsen decreased from 22.0 percent to 18.1 percent. 

Even though the labor market appears to have gotten worse over the last four months, consumers expect that to get better as the coronavirus vaccine becomes more widely distributed. The percentage of consumers expecting a better job market in the next six months rose from 28 percent in December to 31.3 percent this month.

Consumer confidence has fallen sharply as the nation’s retailers hope to make up some ground lost to the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic with a robust holiday shopping season.

The Conference Board’s overall Consumer Confidence Index declined only slightly, buoyed by long-term expectations for the economy. But as for the short-term, many people are significantly less optimistic.

The Expectations Index – based on consumers' short-term outlook for income, business, and labor market conditions – fell from 98.2 in October to 89.5 this month, a fairly significant one-month decline.

"Consumer confidence declined in November, after remaining virtually flat in October," said Lynn Franco, senior director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. "Heading into 2021, consumers do not foresee the economy, nor the labor market, gaining strength. In addition, the resurgence of COVID-19 is further increasing uncertainty and exacerbating concerns about the outlook."

Spike in COVID-19 cases

During the time that the survey was taken by Nielson, the country was recording more than 100,000 new cases of COVID-19 each day, the fastest rate since the beginning of the pandemic. The surge prompted governors in some states to renew restrictions on some businesses and to limit public gatherings.

The Conference Board notes that consumers have grown less optimistic about the short-term outlook for the economy and their personal circumstances. When asked if business conditions would improve over the next six months, only 27.4 percent said they would. In October, 36 percent gave an affirmative answer.

By the same token, those predicting things would get worse rose from 15.9 percent in October to 19.8 percent this month. The growing pessimism comes amid a record rally on Wall Street, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing above 30,000 for the first time on Tuesday.

Consumers' optimism about the job market also eroded in just the last month. In October, 32 percent expected to see more job opportunities in the months ahead -- this month only 25.9 percent do.

But the drop in confidence, at this point at least, doesn’t appear to be based on personal experience. While the percentage of consumers expecting an increase in income was virtually unchanged at 17.6 percent, there were fewer people who expect to lose income over the next few months.

Consumer confidence fell slightly in October but still remains fairly high, considering America is in the midst of an uncertain election campaign and a raging pandemic.

The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index retreated from 101.3 in September to 100.9. Consumers appear to feel pretty good about the way things are at the moment but less certain about the short-term future.

The Present Situation Index – based on consumers' assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased significantly from 98.9 to 104.6 in October. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers' same view for future months – dropped from 102.9 in September to 98.4 this month.

The wave of coronavirus (COVID-19) cases is getting higher, requiring some jurisdictions to tighten restrictions again. New cases of the virus have increased by nearly 70,000 per day this week.

The seven-day average of new cases is also rising, suggesting the wave is building momentum. The seven-day average is up 20 percent in just the last week.

Little economic momentum

"Consumers' assessment of current conditions improved while expectations declined, driven primarily by a softening in the short-term outlook for jobs,” said Lynn Franco, senior director of economic indicators at The Conference Board. “There is little to suggest that consumers foresee the economy gaining momentum in the final months of 2020, especially with COVID-19 cases on the rise and unemployment still high."

The metrics employed by The Conference Board definitely show doubts beginning to cloud consumers’ outlook as 2020 draws to a close. Those expecting business conditions will get worse in the coming weeks increased from 15.8 percent to 17.0 percent. 

Optimism about the job market was mixed. There was a slight increase in those who expect there to be more jobs available in the months ahead, but the increase was slight. 

Regarding the short-term income outlook, the percentage of consumers expecting an increase improved from 17.3 percent to 18.4 percent, but the proportion expecting a decrease also rose, from 13.0 percent to 14.2 percent.