Coffee prices perk up as cereal cools

• Whole Bean Coffee saw the largest year-over-year increase, jumping 30.4% from September 2024.

• Honey Nut Cereal and American Cheese Singles both declined year-over-year, signaling relief in some breakfast staples.

• Bacon rose again in September, up 1.1% from August, continuing its summer surge.

The ConsumerAffairs Datasembly Shopping Cart Index for September 2025 shows a mixed basket of grocery prices, with staples like coffee and bacon continuing to climb while cereals and dairy showed mild declines. 

The total Cart cost edged down 0.7% from last September, and slightly down 0.5% month-over-month from August.

Biggest year-over-year increases

• Whole Bean Coffee (12 oz): Up from $11.90 to $15.51, a sharp 30.4% jump, making it the biggest mover in the index. Rising global coffee bean prices and tight supply from major producers like Brazil continue to pressure U.S. consumers.

• Bacon (16 oz): Climbed 10% year-over-year, from $8.11 to $8.92, following continued volatility in pork prices.

• Honey Wheat Bread (20 oz): Rose 12%, from $3.29 to $3.69, reversing price stability seen earlier this year.

• Organic Eggs (1 dozen): Up 10.2%, reaching $6.35, though slightly lower than August’s $6.45 peak.

• Cola (2 liters): Increased 6.2%, from $2.91 to $3.09, after a summer of elevated sugar and production costs.

Products That Got Cheaper

• Honey Nut Cereal: Down 0.9% month-over-month and a notable 0.9% year-over-year, continuing a six-month softening trend as manufacturers adjust prices amid stronger supply.

• American Cheese Singles: Dropped 3.6% from last year, a relief for dairy shoppers.

• Salted Butter: Fell 14% year-over-year, reflecting a cooldown from 2024’s inflation-driven peaks.

• Tomato Ketchup: Slipped slightly, down 0.8%, perhaps benefiting from better tomato yields this season.

Some pantry and household items—including paper towels, dish detergent, laundry detergent, milk, and peanut butter—remained unchanged year-over-year and month-over-month, underscoring that household goods inflation has plateaued.

Month-Over-Month Highlights

• Bacon and Cola both inched up slightly from August, adding a bit of heat to late-summer shopping bills.

• Whole Bean Coffee cooled slightly (−$0.01) from August’s spike, though prices remain high.

• Organic Eggs also eased $0.10 from August, suggesting a possible price correction after summer highs.

Total Basket Trends

The total Shopping Cart Index for September 2025 came in at $152.21, down from $153.29 a year ago and $151.90 in August. The annual decline marks a 0.7% year-over-year drop, suggesting grocery inflation is finally leveling off after two years of steep climbs.

While some relief is appearing in dairy and breakfast foods, luxury staples like coffee and bacon continue to keep pressure on grocery budgets. The September data offers a hint of stabilization—but for caffeine lovers, the morning brew is still costing more than ever.

The September Shopping Cart Index