If your home is heated with natural gas, your total winter heating bill is expected to be pretty much the same as last year.
Homes heated by electricity are projected to see higher costs this winter, driven by rising electricity prices.
If you heat with propane or heating oil, you’re in the best position — your costs are expected to decline compared with last winter.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), how much you’ll spend on heating this winter depends a lot on your home’s primary heating fuel.
The agency released its 2025-2026 Winter Fuels Outlook, which assesses what the weather is likely to be like throughout the winter season, average energy expenditures, wholesale prices vs. retail prices, and how all of that will affect consumers’ wallets.
Ultimately, the report concluded that different types of heat will yield different cost outcomes.
Natural gas
The agency found that for households using natural gas, the total winter heating cost is expected to come out right about the same as last year. That’s largely because while natural-gas prices might tick up a bit, consumption is expected to drop, keeping overall costs stable.
Electric heat
For homes heated with electricity, the picture is a bit tougher. The EIA forecasts that these households will pay more this winter than last.
Why? Forecasts show electricity prices rising, and even if you use slightly less because of milder weather, the higher rate more than offsets the savings.
This means if your heat pump or baseboard system runs on electricity, you’re likely to feel the pinch more this year.
Propane or oil heat
On the brighter side, for households heated by propane or heating oil, the forecast is good: costs are expected to be lower than last winter.
If you’re in a region that relies on these fuels (often in colder parts of the country), this could offer a little relief — assuming nothing major happens in fuel supply or weather patterns.
The weather plays a role
The EIA emphasizes, though, that these forecasts assume “base-case” weather; if winter is much colder than expected, everyone’s bills could go up.
Bottom line: what you pay this winter depends a lot on which fuel you use — natural gas users can expect a repeat of last year, electric-heat homes should brace for higher bills, and those on propane or oil might see a bit of good news. That said, the weather and fuel-price shifts can still surprise us, so it pays to keep an eye on updates from the EIA through March 2026.