That heart-shaped box of candy is a go-to Valentine’s Day gift for many people, but in 2025 it might not be the bargain it once was. According to Datasembly, which measures grocery prices in real-time, chocolate prices are up more than 5% year-over-year across grocery shelves nationwide.
While candy promotions are still in play, they’re shifting in surprising ways. Data collected from national, regional, and discount retailers across the U.S. show:
Buy More, Save More deals are averaging 27.7% off, with some brands hitting 43% discounts.
Temporary Price Reductions are even steeper, averaging 28.9% off, a sign of aggressive retailer strategies.
Overall promotion activity has decreased over the past two months, signaling a shift in retailer and manufacturer discounting just in time for Valentine's Day.
Still, that is unlikely to deter those who are in love. The annual survey from the National Retail Federation found lovebirds are expected to spend a record $27.5 billion on Valentine’s Day this year.
Spending may average $188
That’s up from last year’s $25.8 billion and slightly above the previous record of $27.4 billion set in 2020. Shoppers plan to spend $188.81 on average on the holiday, up from $185.81 in 2024.
“Whether they are celebrating a significant other or someone else in their lives, Valentine’s Day is meaningful for many people,” NRF Vice President of Industry and Consumer Insights Katherine Cullen said in a statement. “Consumers are looking for special ways to treat their loved ones and can expect retailers to provide the best gift options and deals.”
Despite those expectations, there’s evidence of growing “Valentine’s fatigue” when the cost of celebrations keep going up. A new survey conducted by OurRitual found that 58% of men and 45% of women experience financial stress related to the holiday, making it a significant concern in their relationships.
A significant 68% of women aged 36-55 value emotional connection over gift-giving, indicating a broader shift away from materialism.
Email Mark Huffman at mhuffman@consumeraffairs.com