• Holiday spending on track to top $1 trillion for first time
• Early data shows roughly 4% growth heading into Christmas
• Shoppers stay cautious but still spend on deals, discounts
U.S. holiday shopping is on pace to surpass $1 trillion for the first time, according to new projections and early spending data from major retail trackers. Despite lingering economic caution, the 2025 season is shaping up to be another year of steady, if moderate, growth.
Early results show about 4 percent growth
Visa and Mastercard reported this week that retail spending from early November through Dec. 21 rose about 4% over last year, with electronics, apparel, and online orders among the strongest categories. Adobe Analytics likewise forecasts that online holiday sales will pass $250 billion, up more than 5% year over year.
The National Retail Federation (NRF) has projected overall November-December sales growth between 3.7% and 4.2% — enough to push total spending over the trillion-dollar mark for the first time.
Shoppers focus on value amid economic uncertainty
While totals are rising, analysts say the gains reflect a mix of bargain-hunting, deep discounting, and heightened price sensitivity rather than broad consumer exuberance. Surveys from Gallup and others show Americans budgeting carefully and planning to spend roughly the same amount on gifts as they did last year.
Consumers are shifting more purchases to discounters, off-price chains, and online platforms, while secondhand and resale markets have posted above-average growth. Retailers, anticipating cautious buyers, began rolling out aggressive promotions earlier in the season and continue to offer steep markdowns as Christmas passes.
Cyber Monday and early deal periods set the pace
Strong online performance helped drive the season’s momentum. Cyber Monday once again became the single biggest shopping day in U.S. history, with spending projected to reach as high as $14.2 billion. Retail analysts say the front-loaded surge has flattened some of the traditional last-minute rush, but stores still expect a lift from post-holiday clearance events.
Overall, economists see the 2025 holiday season as another year of “cautious strength” — consumers still spending, but selectively and with more research and comparison shopping than in pre-pandemic years. Final sales totals will be released in January.