This is why chocolate prices are going through the roof


Shrinkflation could start hitting this grocery store segment, too

Maybe you've noticed -- chocolate costs a lot more these days. That's because there’s a chocolate/cocoa shortage that’s getting out of hand.

Shifting weather patterns such as extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall associated with El Niño, have significantly impacted crop yields in major cocoa-producing countries like Ghana and Ivory Coast. If you’re keeping score, you can add crop diseases and aging trees to the list of reasons for the shortage, too. 

Cocoa futures hit an all-time high of $10,051 per ton earlier this week because of what’s happening. If you bought Easter candy, you probably noticed the uptick on your checkout receipt, but the rest of you better get ready, too.

Willy Wonka won’t be saving the day any time soon

Industry analysts say you need to be prepared to pay more for chocolate for the next couple of years. Right now, general food inflation is running a bit over 7%, but chocolate is 30 times higher – or more.

Datasembly’s live tracking of its Snacks, Cookies, & Chips price index shows that segment as much as 60 index points higher than the national average price of grocery prices  for thing like condiments, frozen foods, produce and meat.

Food Navigator notes that a lot of confectionery retail supply contracts are for 23 months, so that could put us into 2026 before those prices come down. After all, someone’s gotta pay for this, right?

You should also be prepared to see less chocolate in your chocolate’y things. Food Navigator predicts that we may start to see confectioners promoting products that have lower cocoa content and that we might have to face the very real possibility that shrinkflation will show up, too.

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