The Senior Citizens League projects a 3.5% Social Security cost-of-living adjustment for 2027.
A beneficiary receiving $2,000 a month would get about $70 more before Medicare deductions.
The official COLA will be announced October 14 after the government releases September inflation data.
Social Security recipients are on track for a somewhat larger cost-of-living adjustment next year, according to the final 2027 forecast from The Senior Citizens League.
The nonpartisan senior advocacy group now predicts a 3.5% COLA for 2027. That is down slightly from its August estimate of 3.6%, but it would still exceed the 2.8% adjustment beneficiaries received in 2026.
If the forecast is correct, someone receiving $2,000 a month in Social Security benefits would see a gross increase of about $70, raising the monthly payment to approximately $2,070. A $1,500 benefit would increase by about $52.50.
The Senior Citizens League estimates that the average beneficiary’s payment would rise by $67.90, from $1,940.08 to $2,007.98 a month. Actual increases would depend on each recipient’s current benefit and deductions.
The estimate followed the release of August inflation data. The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers, or CPI-W, was 3.5% higher than a year earlier in August, following a 3.4% annual increase in July.
Those figures matter because Social Security uses the average CPI-W for July, August and September to calculate the following year’s COLA. The 2026 third-quarter average will be compared with the same period in 2025. The percentage difference, rounded to the nearest tenth, will determine the adjustment.
The Social Security Administration is scheduled to announce the official figure on October 14, when the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases September inflation data. Until then, 3.5% remains a forecast rather than a guaranteed increase. The Social Security Administration explains the COLA formula here.
A larger adjustment reflects higher prices
A 3.5% increase would be the largest COLA since benefits rose 8.7% in 2023. But a larger COLA is not necessarily good economic news: It reflects the higher prices consumers have already faced.
The 2026 adjustment was 2.8%, while benefits increased 2.5% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2024.
The Senior Citizens League said many retirees remain dissatisfied with the way Social Security adjustments are calculated. Its 2026 survey found that 89% of older Americans considered the current year’s COLA too low, while 44% said Social Security provided all their income.
The organization argues that the CPI-W does not accurately reflect older Americans’ spending because it is based on the purchases of working households. Retirees typically spend a larger portion of their budgets on health care and housing.
The net increase may be smaller
Beneficiaries should also remember that the COLA applies to the gross benefit, not necessarily the amount deposited into their bank accounts.
For people who have Medicare Part B premiums deducted from Social Security, an increase in the 2027 premium could consume part of the COLA. The net change will not be clear until Medicare announces its 2027 costs.
Social Security recipients should receive notices showing their individual benefit amounts and deductions later this year. The higher payments would begin in January 2027. The Senior Citizens League’s latest forecast is available here.