Gasoline prices heading into Memorial Day weekend are the highest they’ve been since 2022, with the national average hovering around $4.56 a gallon.
Despite higher fuel costs, AAA expects a record 39.1 million Americans to travel by car over the holiday weekend.
Analysts say prices could remain volatile through early summer because of geopolitical tensions, refinery constraints and strong seasonal demand.
Americans planning a road trip for Memorial Day weekend are facing the most expensive gasoline prices in four years, but that is not expected to keep travelers home.
AAA projects that 39.1 million people will travel by car during the holiday weekend, part of a record 45 million Americans expected to travel at least 50 miles from home between May 21 and May 25.
The national average price for regular gasoline stood at $4.56 a gallon Thursday, according to AAA, up sharply from $3.177 a year ago and approaching levels last seen during the summer fuel spike of 2022.
Industry analysts say several factors are driving the increase. The seasonal switch to more expensive summer gasoline blends, refinery outages in parts of the Midwest, and heightened geopolitical tensions involving Iran and the Strait of Hormuz have tightened fuel supplies just as demand is surging for the start of the summer driving season.
$5 a gallon becoming more common
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, has warned that gasoline prices could continue climbing through the holiday period, with some markets already seeing prices above $5 a gallon.
Western states remain the most expensive markets for drivers. California prices have climbed above $6 a gallon on average, while several Northeastern and Midwestern states are also posting prices above $5.
Even so, travel demand remains resilient.
Fewer staying home
“Travel demand remains strong, and despite higher fuel prices, many people are prioritizing leisure travel during holiday breaks,” AAA Vice President of Travel Stacey Barber said in the organization’s Memorial Day forecast.
Analysts say motorists may try to offset higher fuel bills by shortening trips, consolidating errands, or searching for cheaper stations through fuel-tracking apps. But they do not expect a major pullback in driving activity.
GasBuddy’s longer-term outlook still calls for national gasoline prices to moderate later in 2026, potentially averaging below $3 a gallon for the year as a whole if global oil markets stabilize. However, near-term volatility is expected to continue through the summer driving season.