For a while it was looking as if the American consumer had actually learned to live within their means. Conspicuous consumption was down, more of us were using cash instead of credit and a large portion of the country was paying down its credit card debt. Or at least most studies and figures seemed to indicate that trend, including numbers put out by the Federal Reserve showing credit card debt was decreasing year over year.
Well, it seems we may not have looked deep enough to see the true direction. On the surface just looking at the numbers, it does appear that overall credit card debt is going down. But according to a new study released this week, that figure has nothing to do with reality and that things may have started to change as far back as the spring of 2009.
CardHub.com, which tracks credit card use, has just released its 2010 Credit Card Debt Study for Q3. That is the quarter covering the summer months of July, August and September. The CardHub.com study shows that not only didn't consumers pay down their credit card debt this summer, but they actually increased it by $6.5 billion compared to the spring.
What's worrisome is that consumers, who had begun 2009 and 2010 with a significant net decrease in credit card debt as they paid down their balances, appear to have slipped back into old habits and have begun to use their cards again. The result is that their credit card debt has either gone back up or at least stayed the same.
More specifically, although credit card debt in the first quarter of 2010 had a net decrease of $43 billion, it was 9% less than the net decrease in the same quarter last year. In addition, during the spring and summer of this year, consumers accumulated $16.1 billion in credit card debt, 11% more than the same period last year. As a result, according to the latest Card Hub forecast, consumers are actually on track to end 2010 with no net change in their debt.
Why the discrepancy?
So why is there such a discrepancy between overall Credit Card Debt numbers and personal credit card use?
In an interview with ConsumerAffairs.com, Odysseas Papadimitriou, CEO and Founder of CardHub.com says one might look at the $93 billion decline in credit card debt, and come to the conclusion that Americans have paid down their balances in a big way. But the reality he says is that $81.6 billion of the $93 billion decrease is the direct result of Americans defaulting on their debt, not paying it off.
According to the CardHub.com study, we paid down our credit card debt in the first quarter of 2009 and the first quarter of 2010. Papadimitriou says that's usually when we get our tax refunds or bonuses. But our collective debt repayment this year was 9% less than in 2009 and continues to get worse to the point where in the spring of 2010, outstanding credit card debt was actually 246% above the same quarter of 2009 even though the figures given for overall debt implied we were reducing our debt and not adding to it.
"People look at the overall credit card debt number going down and think things are getting better," says Papadimitriou. "But if you look closer you see there are two numbers you need to consider, the number related to the debt consumers are paying down and the number associated with credit card defaults."
Beyond their means
The CardHub.com chief says his study shows that some consumers are once again beginning to use their credit cards to live beyond what their salaries or regular income would cover. "This could be due to an over-optimistic view or that they believe we are on the road to economic recovery to they've returned to their old habits," says Papadimitriou, "but the reality is people are going to find themselves deeper in debt again if this trend continues."
"It's a little like the game musical chairs," adds Papadimitriou. "As long as the music is playing, like it was during the housing bubble, everything is great. But once music stops like it did during the financial crisis, some people were left without a chair, in the form of being without a job or a home."
Papadimitriou puts a great deal of the responsibility for the financial crisis clearly on the shoulders of the Federal Reserve, which he says had the authority to step in and tell the major banks that the type of lending they were doing during the housing bubble was neither safe nor sound. "But they didn't do that"" he adds, "and neither did any of the other regulators who could have done something about it."
"Even former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan admitted that he didn't think it was a problem," says Papadimitriou, "because he figured investors simply would not buy such bad loans and that would be the end of it."
As we all know now, Greenspan was wrong, and that even though some banks like Goldman Sachs knew the loans were crap, there were enough other banks who apparently wanted to keep playing and they, to draw on Papadimitriou's analogy, along with the rest of us, were left without a chair.
For a copy of the CardHub.com study go to
http://education.cardhub.com/q3-2010-credit-card-debt-study.