Pollsters don't often agree on much but this year, there's a consensus that consumers will dig a bit deeper into their pockets, or credit card accounts, to stock up on holiday presents.
Gallup cites two indicators of U.S. consumers’ gift-buying intentions.
- Americans’ latest estimate of the total amount they will spend on Christmas and other holiday gifts is slightly higher than what they estimated at this time a year ago. The latest -- $1,012, from a Nov. 6-20 survey -- is up from $975 last November.
- The new poll also finds Americans less conservative than usual in how they characterize their spending, with almost as many saying they will spend more on gifts (19%) as saying they will spend less (23%).
The National Retail. Federation puts the figure at $902 for gifts, food, decorations, and other holiday items, marking a record high. That's an increase of approximately $25 per person compared to last year and surpasses the previous record set in 2019.
The NRF also forecasts that total holiday spending in November and December will grow between 2.5% and 3.5% over 2023, reaching between $979.5 billion and $989 billion.
A robust shopping season
This year’s increase in consumers’ November holiday spending estimate follows an even larger jump last November, but contrasts with 2022 when intended spending dipped as the country was experiencing high inflation, Gallup said.
The recent pattern is more consistent with the generally upward trend in this metric recorded since Gallup began its annual November measurement in 1999.
Holiday sales typically rise year over year, increasing by 4% on average since 2000, according to the NRF. Sales have increased by 6% or more in strong years (such as 2004, 2005, 2020 and 2021) and by 2% or less in weak years, including negative sales growth in 2008 and an increase of just 0.2% in 2009.