Tobacco Use and Health Risks

Does vaping help tobacco smokers kick the habit? 

A new study conducted by researchers from the University of California at San Diego found that the answer to that question is no. In fact, U.S. tobacco smokers may be more likely to smoke more after vaping – not less. 

“Most smokers think vaping will help you quit smoking,” study co-author John P. Pierce, Ph.D., said in a news release. 

“However, this belief is not supported by science to date. While some researchers have suggested that smokers who switch to daily vaping will be more successful in quitting smoking, we studied quitting success among both daily and non-daily vapers and came up with a quite definitive answer.”

The study

For the study, the researchers analyzed data from over 6,000 smokers in the U.S. who were enrolled in the Population Assessment of Tobacco and Health (PATH) Study. Of that group, 943 also vaped, and the researchers compared the outcomes with those who didn’t vape. 

Additionally, the researchers were able to look at some of the factors that most affect whether or not smokers are successful with quitting. These included things like a willingness to stop smoking, regular smoking habits, socioeconomic factors, and more. 

“For example, if a smoker is already very interested in quitting, has a smoke-free home, and does not smoke daily, they are much more likely to successfully quit regardless of whether they vape or not,” senior author Karen Messer, Ph.D., said in a news release. 

“We matched each smoker/vaper on such characteristics. You have to make very sure you’re comparing like with like, and that’s why this analysis is so definitive.” 

How does vaping affect smoking cessation?

Ultimately, the researchers found that vaping wasn’t helpful in aiding smokers in quitting the habit. 

The study found that those who vaped daily were over 4% less likely to quit smoking, while those who vaped regularly – but not every day – were over 5% less likely to quit smoking. 

Quitting both traditional cigarettes and vaping was nearly 15% less likely among those who vaped daily, and over 7% less likely for those who vaped regularly but not daily. 

"As the public health community continues to grapple with the complexities of tobacco control, it is essential that we rely on rigorous scientific evidence to inform our policies and interventions,” Messer said. “Our research shows that misleading associations between vaping and smoking cessation routinely occur unless confounding characteristics are carefully accounted for.”

A new study conducted by researchers from the University of Massachusetts Amherst explored the link between youth vaping and smoking into adulthood. 

It’s been long debated that one habit impacts the other – kids who start vaping at a young age are more likely to be adults that smoke. However, according to these findings, this isn’t likely to be the case. 

“One of the substantial concerns from some members of the public health community about vaping is that it might cause more young people to smoke,” researcher Jamie Hartmann-Boyce said in a news release. “Some — but not all — evidence from our study possibly suggests the opposite — that vaping may contribute to declines in youth smoking, particularly in the U.S.”

The research

To understand the link between youth vaping and adult smoking, the researchers analyzed data from 123 previous studies that included data on over four million people in the U.S., Canada, and western Europe. All of the participants were under the age of 29, and their e-cigarette use was compared with population data on smoking. 

“The studies themselves are not straightforward study designs, because you can’t randomize kids to vape or not vape — it just wouldn’t be ethical,” Hartmann-Boyce said. “But it means that there are so many different ways to interpret the findings of these studies.”

The findings

So, what did the analysis show? Ultimately, the findings were mixed. 

However, the researchers did find that over 20 of the larger studies came to a similar conclusion: as vaping among young people increased, smoking rates went down. Additionally, when rules were put into place that restricted vaping, smoking rates were likely to be higher. 

The researchers explained that at the most individual level, those who vape are more likely to go on to become smokers. However, none of their data can prove the causal relationship between these two factors. 

Instead, the team encourages consumers to look at population-level data. Smoking levels have been steadily declining over the years, which indicates that vaping isn’t likely to play a role in subsequent smoking. 

“There’s enough non-smoking kids who start vaping in the U.S. that if vaping was in a consistent and widespread way causing kids to start smoking, we would start seeing that in our population-level smoking data,” Hartmann-Boyce said. “And we haven’t seen that at all.

“The smoking rates among kids have declined steeply, and whether or not that’s due to vaping or something else is up in the air. But it’s difficult to argue that  — in the U.S. population — youth vaping is en masse causing kids to smoke. The data doesn’t support that so far.”

The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed a new rule to limit the addictiveness of cigarettes and other tobacco products. 

The agency plans to lower the amount of nicotine in these products, ultimately helping curb consumers’ habits and prioritize their health. With the ruling, the FDA hopes that smokers looking to quit will have an easier time, and non-smokers won’t be tempted to start. 

“Multiple administrations have acknowledged the immense opportunity that a proposal of this kind offers to address the burden of tobacco-related disease,” said FDA Commissioner Robert M. Califf, M.D. 

“Today’s proposal envisions a future where it would be less likely for young people to use cigarettes and more individuals who currently smoke could quit or switch to less harmful products. This action, if finalized, could save many lives and dramatically reduce the burden of severe illness and disability, while also saving huge amounts of money. I hope we can all agree that significantly reducing the leading cause of preventable death and disease in the U.S. is an admirable goal we should all work toward.”

What this would mean

The FDA explained in its proposal that nicotine won’t be banned under the ruling. Instead, any tobacco-based products sold in the U.S. would be made with significantly less nicotine than is currently being used. 

Under the rule, tobacco products would be capped at 0.7 mg of nicotine. By comparison, most standard cigarettes currently contain an average of 10-12 mg of nicotine.  

Here are the products that would be affected by the ruling: 

• Cigarettes

• Cigars – little cigars, cigarillos, and most large cigars

• Roll-your-own tobacco

• Pipe tobacco 

• Cigarette tobacco 

Here are the products that would not be affected by the ruling: 

• E-cigarettes 

• Nicotine pouches 

• Noncombusted cigarettes – heated tobacco products that meet the definition of a cigarette

• Waterpipe tobacco (hookah)

• Smokeless tobacco products

• Premium cigars 

Long-term health benefits

As part of the proposal, the FDA also utilized its population health model to determine how this rule would affect consumers’ health over the long-term. 

They estimate that within five years of the ruling being finalized, 19.5 million people who smoke cigarettes would stop doing so. After just one year, it’s estimated that nearly 13 million smokers would quit. 

In the next 35 years, the FDA estimates that nearly two million tobacco-related deaths could be prevented. By the year 2100, the agency estimates that the ruling would prevent roughly 48 million young adults from ever smoking cigarettes. 

“Today, we’re taking a critical step in the rulemaking process by providing the public with a proposal they can review and engage on,” said Brian King, Ph.D., M.P.H, director of the FDA’s Center for Tobacco Products. 

“This proposal allows for the start of an important conversation about how we meaningfully tackle one of the deadliest consumer products in history and profoundly change the landscape of tobacco product use in the United States.”

Consumers are able to voice their opinions on the ruling now through September 15, 2025. More information on how to do so is available on the FDA’s website.