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U.S. Fears Devastating "Bird Flu" Pandemic

October 10, 2005
The U.S. Government is concerned about a possible pandemic flu outbreak and has drafted a report declaring that the country is completely unprepared for a devastating impact, according to a report in the New York Times, which said it has obtained a copy of the unreleased Bush Administration draft.

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Specifically, the report cites concerns about Avian, or so called “bird” flu, which has surfaced in parts of Asia. Bird flu was first identified in South Korea in December 2003. The most recent cases were found in Romania on Saturday.

Bird flu is an infection caused by avian (bird) influenza viruses, according to the U.S. Centers For Disease Control and Prevention. These flu viruses occur naturally among birds, though wild birds usually do not get sick from them. However, bird flu is very contagious among birds and can make some domesticated birds, including chickens, ducks, and turkeys, very sick and often kills them.

Humans normally don’t get sick from bird flu, though there have been a few cases of human illness since 1997, according to the CDC. A total of 65 people in Asia have died from bird flu since 2003.

The draft Bush Administration report expresses the worry that if the virus mutates and jumps to the human population in Asia, it could quickly spread to the United States because of international travel. If that happens, the report warns of what could be the worst disaster in the nation’s history.

According to the Times report, the document suggests hospitals would be overwhelmed, riots would sweep vaccination clinics and more than a million Americans could die.

The plan, which has been years in the making and may be released in the coming weeks, makes no specific mention of government of military responses, according to the newspaper. It mentions the use of quarantines and travel restrictions, but acknowledges they would likely be ineffective in stopping a pandemic.

Serious Business

A flu pandemic is a global outbreak of disease that occurs when a new influenza A virus appears or “emerges” in the human population, causes serious illness, and then spreads easily from person to person worldwide. Pandemics are different from seasonal outbreaks or “epidemics” of influenza.

Seasonal outbreaks are caused by subtypes of influenza viruses that are already in existence among people, whereas pandemic outbreaks are caused by new subtypes or by subtypes that have never circulated among people or that have not circulated among people for a long time. Past influenza pandemics have led to high levels of illness, death, social disruption, and economic loss.

Currently, the CDC assesses the risk of a bird flu pandemic as low, pointing out that the strain of virus found in Asia has not been found in the United States. However, the agency says it is working with domestic and international health agencies to develop and refine techniques to identify new viruses develop antiviral stockpiles.

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