The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage edged down to 6.36% this week from 6.37%, according to Freddie Mac.
Economists expect mortgage rates to remain relatively stable in the next few weeks, hovering in the mid-6% range.
Inflation concerns, Treasury yields and uncertainty over future Federal Reserve moves are likely to keep rates from falling sharply anytime soon.
Mortgage rates aren’t going down very much, but at least they aren’t going up. Rates drifted slightly lower this week, offering modest relief for homebuyers entering the late spring housing market, but economists say borrowing costs are likely to remain elevated through the next several weeks.
Freddie Mac reports that the average rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage dipped to 6.36%, down from 6.37% last week. A year ago, the benchmark mortgage averaged 6.81%. Rates on 15-year fixed mortgages, popular with homeowners refinancing, slipped to 5.71% from 5.72% the previous week.
“Recent data points to slightly better conditions for buyers,” Freddie Mac said in its weekly survey, pointing to growing housing inventory and lower median new-home prices.
However, mortgage analysts caution that the improvement is unlikely to signal the beginning of a major downward trend.
Following bond yields
Mortgage rates closely follow the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which has remained elevated as investors weigh inflation pressures, global instability and the Federal Reserve’s next moves on interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield recently hovered around 4.4%, well above where it stood earlier this year.
Housing economists said they generally expect rates to stay in a narrow range between about 6.2% and 6.5% through the early summer unless there is a significant shift in inflation or economic growth.
Federal Reserve policymakers have held their benchmark interest rate steady this year after several cuts late in 2025, signaling continued concern that inflation remains stubbornly above the Fed’s 2% target. Although the Fed does not directly set mortgage rates, its policies heavily influence broader borrowing costs.
Second half of the year may see improvement
Industry forecasts suggest mortgage rates may gradually ease later in 2026 if inflation cools and the Fed resumes rate cuts. Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the Mortgage Bankers Association all project rates could fall closer to 6% by year’s end, though few analysts expect a return to the ultra-low rates seen during the pandemic era.
For consumers, the near-term outlook means affordability challenges are likely to persist, especially as home prices remain high in many markets. But slightly lower rates and increased inventory may give some buyers more negotiating power than they had during the frenzied housing market of recent years.