Airlines around the world are cutting flights, adding fuel surcharges and raising fares as jet fuel prices surge and supplies tighten.
Travelers are facing higher ticket costs, fewer available seats, more schedule changes and an increased risk of cancellations on some international routes.
Industry analysts warn the disruptions could continue through the busy summer travel season if fuel markets remain unstable.
The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz during the Iran war has affected some petroleum products more than others. It’s impacted jet fuel the most, since so much of the fuel is refined in the Persian Gulf region.
As a result, global airlines are scrambling to adapt to a sharp increase in jet fuel prices and growing concerns about fuel shortages, a crisis that is already reshaping travel plans for millions of passengers.
The aviation industry has been hit by a combination of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions and rising oil prices that have pushed jet fuel costs to multi-year highs. Fuel is one of the airlines’ biggest expenses, and the last two months have made it even bigger. Jet fuel has become significantly more expensive in recent months, forcing carriers to rethink schedules, pricing and even long-term fleet strategies.
Thousands of flights have been cut
Major airlines, including Lufthansa, United Airlines, Air France-KLM and several Asian carriers, have reduced flights or trimmed capacity for the summer season. Lufthansa alone has cut thousands of short-haul flights, while United has warned it may reduce additional capacity if fuel costs remain elevated.
Industry data firm Cirium reported that airlines worldwide removed more than 75,000 flights from schedules over a recent 10-day period, eliminating millions of seats from the market.
Some airlines are also relying heavily on fuel hedging — financial contracts that lock in fuel prices in advance — to soften the blow. European carriers such as Lufthansa and Wizz Air entered 2026 with significant portions of their fuel needs hedged, helping shield them from the full impact of the spike. Many U.S. airlines, however, had reduced hedging strategies in recent years and are now more exposed to volatile fuel prices.
Others are accelerating the retirement of older, less fuel-efficient aircraft while prioritizing newer jets that consume less fuel. Airlines are also consolidating routes, reducing flight frequencies and shifting aircraft to more profitable destinations.
The effect on travelers
For travelers, the effects are becoming increasingly visible.
Airfares are rising across both domestic and international markets as carriers attempt to pass higher operating costs on to consumers. Analysts estimate fares could climb between 5% and 10% in some markets, with additional baggage fees and fuel surcharges becoming more common. Virgin Atlantic, for example, recently added fuel surcharges to some tickets.
Passengers are also encountering reduced flexibility as airlines shrink schedules. Fewer flights mean fewer available seats and less room for rebooking when disruptions occur. Some experts warn that if fuel shortages worsen, especially in Europe and parts of Asia, airlines may be forced to cancel additional flights during peak summer travel months.
Travelers booking international vacations may face the greatest uncertainty. Industry analysts say long-haul flights are particularly vulnerable because they consume more fuel and are more expensive to operate. Airports in some regions have already begun rationing jet fuel supplies, and airlines are taking extra fuel onboard where possible — a practice known as “tankering.”
Budget airlines are under especially intense pressure because their business models depend on keeping fares low. Spirit Airlines recently ceased operations after years of financial struggles worsened by rising fuel costs and weak demand.
Conditions may not improve anytime soon
This situation, unfortunately, will not end with the end of hostilities. Even if hostilities in the Middle East ended tomorrow, jet fuel supplies and prices would not return to normal immediately. Aviation fuel markets tend to lag behind geopolitical events because refining, shipping and inventory systems take time to stabilize.
Industry analysts generally estimate three phases of recovery:
Immediate market reaction: days to 2 weeks. Oil and jet fuel futures would likely fall quickly once markets believed the conflict was truly over and shipping routes were secure. Airlines and fuel traders often react within hours to ceasefires or diplomatic agreements. Ticket prices, however, usually do not decline as fast because airlines hedge fuel purchases months in advance.
Physical supply normalization: one to three months. This is the critical timeline for jet fuel itself. Refineries would need time to:
Restore disrupted production
Rebuild inventories
Reposition tanker shipments
Clear port bottlenecks, and
Resume normal export schedules.
Jet fuel inventories at major hubs in Europe and Asia are currently tighter than normal, so replenishing storage tanks would likely take several weeks even after crude oil supplies stabilize.
Airline operational recovery: three to six months. Airlines cannot instantly restore canceled routes or rebuild schedules. Aircraft and crews are often reassigned, and carriers sell seats months ahead. Some capacity cuts would persist through at least one booking cycle. Airlines would also wait to see whether lower fuel prices were durable before reducing fares significantly.
For travelers, that means that fuel surcharges could remain in place for months and airfares would probably decline gradually, not suddenly.