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World Not Ready For Bird Flu

Not if but when, United Nations official warns

By Mark Huffman
ConsumerAffairs.com

October 25, 2007

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Despite three years of massive preparation efforts, the world is not ready to deal with a potential Avian, or “bird” flu pandemic that could kill millions of people world-wide.

That’s the assessment of David Nabarro, a senior United Nations official in charge of bird flu prevention efforts.

Nabarro says most countries have made some progress on a preparedness plan, but that progress is spotty. And while some have actually been able to stockpile anti-viral vaccines, they have yet to plan for the enormous societal and economic impact a pandemic would bring.

"Unfortunately, only a relatively small number are adequately prepared to keep going in the event that the pandemic has massive absenteeism associated with it, Nabarro said. We need hard work for at least two or three years more to make sure that the whole world is properly pandemic ready.”

No if, but when

And a bird flu pandemic is coming, says Nabarro.

To date the handful of humans who have contracted the disease have gotten the virus from infected birds. But once the deadly H5N1 virus mutates so that it is easily transmitted from one person to the next, Nabarro and other heath experts say it will spread quickly around the globe.

That’s what happened in 1918, when an animal virus mutated and began to quickly spread from person to person. Before it ran its course in 1919, the “Spanish Flu” killed an estimated 40 million people – more than died in the just completed World War. Health experts call it the most devastating epidemic in recorded history. So far.

Nabarro says no one knows when the H5N1 virus will jump from birds to humans or how severe the resulting outbreak will be. But he says nations should be prepared for the worst, both in terms of human suffering and economic devastation.

The World Health Organization is working with governments to develop rapid response systems, which include assembling stockpiles of Oseltamivir or Tamiflu, anti-viral medications. Nabarro says the agency is also working on trying to ensure that there will be a plan that can be put into place for rapid production of pandemic vaccines once the new virus appears.

Bird flu has been reported in about 60 countries in the last three years, killing millions of birds. To date only about 350 humans have gotten the disease, but of that number, more than 200 have died, increasing fears of what a potential human pandemic could be like.

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