Survey: 1 in 4 Americans will consider moving if their preferred candidate loses the 2024 presidential election
As the U.S. has become more politically polarized in recent decades, you may have heard a loved one, a neighbor or someone else you know say they plan to move to a new country because of politics or an election result.
But how many Americans are really considering moving if their preferred presidential candidate loses? We surveyed 1,000 American voters to see how they feel about this election year and how politics might affect where they live. Read our full methodology below.
Nearly 1 in 4 Americans say they will consider moving if their preferred presidential candidate loses this year.
Jump to insightNearly half (46%) of both Democrats and Republicans prefer to live in an area where their political views are shared.
Jump to insightFew registered voters (11%) report having moved because of politics, while 15% say they’ve considered relocating.
Jump to insightNearly 3 in 10 voters say they would be bothered by their neighbor displaying a campaign sign for a candidate they do not support.
Jump to insightMany Americans prefer politically aligned communities
American voters on both sides of the aisle have become increasingly concerned about the stakes of presidential elections.
Ahead of the 2024 election, we surveyed 1,000 registered voters to assess how politics play a role in their decisions about where to live and how they interact with their communities.
Democrats and Republicans expressed similar views. Nearly half of registered voters surveyed in each party say they prefer to live in an area where most people share their political views. However, a higher share of Democrats (29%) than Republicans (26%) say they feel “strongly” about being in such a community.
Democratic voters were also more likely to prefer a mix of political views in their living area — 24% of Democrats say they prefer a mix of opinions, compared with 17% of Republicans.
While a significant share of voters have signaled a willingness to live and interact with those who may not share their views, voters in each party have tended to congregate in similar areas. Democrats typically dominate large cities and urban areas, and Republicans more commonly occupy rural parts of the country.
The differences in parties are also exemplified by voters’ priorities when it comes to top political issues. More than 7 in 10 Republicans identify economic policies, immigration and national security as the issues most important to them. On the other side of the aisle, Democratic voters said health care and reproductive rights (28%), the economy (28%) and civil rights (20%) were their most critical areas of concern.
Those differing perspectives could influence a voter’s decision about their living arrangements. For example, a Republican voter concerned about border security may not choose to move to a community along the nation’s Southern border, and a Democratic voter concerned about reproductive rights may avoid living in a red state where there is limited or no access to abortion services.
How politics affect Americans’ moving decisions
While most voters prefer a particular breakdown of political views in their community — whether it be views that match their own or a mix of different opinions — how many people are willing to uproot their lives to ensure they live in an area that matches their desires politically?
While our survey found that a higher share of voters preferred certain political views in their community, few registered voters reported relocating for political reasons.
Only 1 in 10 Americans reports previously relocating due to political reasons, with most moving elsewhere within the U.S. But others have considered such a move without making a leap yet — an additional 15% of people say they’ve considered relocating because of politics, including 18% of Democratic voters.
A slightly higher share of male voters (12%) than female voters (9%) say they’ve moved for political reasons, and men are more likely to have considered moving because of politics (17% of men versus 14% of women).
That rate puts politics low on the list of reasons Americans make the difficult decision to move. In fact, the U.S. Census Bureau reported that Americans were more likely to cite reasons related to housing, family or employment for their relocations.
Democrats are more likely to feel discomfort over neighbors who display opposing political views
Take a walk through your neighborhood in the summer or fall before an election, and you’ll likely see many lawns featuring political signs. Whether the signs are for candidates you support or oppose or a mix of each, these symbols of an impending election are unavoidable.
We asked a hypothetical question to gauge how Americans feel about living around people with opposing political beliefs.
Nearly 4 in 10 Democratic voters indicate they would feel bothered by opposing political signage on their neighbor’s lawn, compared with less than a quarter of Republican voters. But across both sides of the aisle, the largest share of respondents say they would not feel bothered — 42% of Democrats and 49% of Republicans.
For those who said they would feel bothered by opposing political signage on their neighbor’s lawn, we asked a follow-up question on how it might affect their relationship. The graph below details the responses we gathered.
Among those who indicate they would be bothered by their neighbor displaying a campaign sign for a candidate they don’t support, Democrats are more likely to say they would reduce their interaction with that neighbor. In contrast, a majority of Republicans indicate they would continue interacting with that person as usual.
The communities the hypothetical neighbors live in may influence those interactions. For example, Democrats living in a dense city may be less likely to regularly interact with their neighbors than Republicans living in a smaller, rural town.
How could the 2024 presidential election impact people’s moving decisions?
While research shows that Americans largely agree on a variety of key issues, especially concerning fundamental rights, the divide over supporting specific political parties feels massive. So, what can we believe when we hear people say they would move due to presidential election results?
While 3 in 4 voters say they would not change their living arrangements based on an unfavorable election outcome, 24% of respondents say they would consider relocating if a candidate they did not support won the presidency.
Among those who would consider a move, a third say they would relocate elsewhere in the U.S., a third say they would move abroad, and a third say they would move only if other factors align, such as their job circumstances. If voters carry out those plans, could this trend lead to more politically homogeneous regions in the U.S.? Yes, according to some experts.
“We’re at a moment of extreme geographic sectionalism,” Jonathan Rodden, a Stanford University professor of political science, said during a Stanford Graduate School of Business event in 2017.
Rodden explained that the correlation between population density and voting behavior is growing, with Democrats increasingly becoming the party of urban areas. While polarization in the U.S. may not be as extreme as politics portray, it has still grown significantly in recent years, contributing to a more significant geographic divide.
The bottom line
Whether you plan to move or stay in your community for political reasons, it is important to consider the possible consequences of such a decision and weigh all the factors a move brings before making an impulse decision.
To better understand where and why Americans are moving, refer to our migration trends report or ConsumerAffairs’ guide to the best states to move to.
When considering a move, you’ll also need to evaluate whether making that decision is financially feasible. You’ll also have to do your research to understand what kind of community you want to live in and decide how much the politics matter.
Methodology
ConsumerAffairs conducted a survey to understand how political factors might influence Americans’ moving plans. The survey was administered on Aug. 30, 2024, through Pollfish, an online survey platform. A total of 1,000 respondents, all U.S. residents 18 and older who are registered to vote, participated in the survey. We used stratified sampling to ensure that the results were representative of the broader voting population.
For questions about the data or if you'd like to set up an interview, please contact acurls@consumeraffairs.com.
Reference policy
We love it when people share our findings! If you do, please link back to our original article to credit our research.
Article sources
ConsumerAffairs writers primarily rely on government data, industry experts and original research from other reputable publications to inform their work. Specific sources for this article include:
Figures