Nearly 80 percent of economists surveyed by the National Association for Business Economics (NABE) said they believed there’s a 1-in-4 chance of a “double-dip” recession.
Two-thirds of respondents to the August survey said the U.S. economy is still in the recession that began as lockdown measures were put in place earlier this year. Once the economy rebounds, a majority of those surveyed said there’s at least a 25 percent chance of a second dip.
Roughly 40 percent of the panel’s 235 members said Congress’ fiscal response to the COVID-19 pandemic was “insufficient.” Thirty-seven percent said the stimulus was "adequate,” and just 11 percent called it "excessive," according to the survey.
Most economists said they see the economy getting worse before it gets better. Only one panelist believed a return to pre-pandemic levels would happen this year.
“Forty-one percent of respondents do not expect the global economy to get back to its pre-COVID-19 (Q4 2019) level until at least 2022, while 30 percent suggest it will do so in 2021,” the report said. “Sixteen percent of panelists do not believe that output will have completely recuperated until 2023 or later.”
Survey respondents said the next administration should prioritize addressing the following three issues: combating COVID-19, promoting economic recovery, and making changes to the health care system. These three policy priorities were cited more frequently than a dozen other choices, according to NABE.