Making Sense of Home Value Data

Each month seems to bring more bad news about the housing market. Either sales are down or prices are falling - or both.

But don't forget, all real estate is local. And it's clear the battered U.S. real estate market is a lot less battered in some areas of the country than others.

Let's look at the latest home value statistics, offered by CoreLogic. The analytics company says its October Home Price Index shows that home prices fell 1.3 percent from September.

That sounds like bad news, but it isn't if you live in New York or eleven other states, which saw no change in home values on a month-to-month basis. However, if you live in Nevada, Arizona or Illinois, you could be worse off. In those three states, home prices plunged more than eight percent in the last year.

In fact, it's pretty much been the same story throughout the housing meltdown. Some states have been harder hit that others. Some states are recovering faster than others. When they are all averaged together, you get the 1.3 percent one-month drop.

Weak demand

“Home prices continue to decline in response to the weak demand for housing. While many housing statistics are basically moving sideways, prices continue to correct for a supply and demand imbalance. Looking forward, our forecasts indicate flat growth through 2013,” said Mark Fleming, chief economist for CoreLogic.

Even in states where prices have dropped sharply in the last month, the numbers can be a bit deceiving. If, for example, foreclosures and distressed sales made up the bulk of the sales that month, it will skew the average sale price lower.

If you live in a community, let's say California, where prices declined between four and eight percent in the last 12 months, and there have been very few foreclosures, prices in your neighborhood might actually have risen last month.

Of the top 100 Core Based Statistical Areas (CBSAs) measured by population, 78 are showing year-over-year declines in October, according to the report. But that's two fewer than in September.

When looking at a map of price declines, it is clear the problem areas are in the western U.S. and the upper Midwest. The nation's mid section and Atlantic coast, with the exceptions of Connecticut and Georgia, are showing significant stability in home prices.