Thanksgiving Flights Likely to be Stuffed This Year

The Air Transport Association of America (ATA) is warning holiday travelers to be ready for full flights during the Thanksgiving travel season.

About 37,000 fewer people per day are expected to fly during the holiday period compared with last year but U.S. carriers have reduced capacity to match demand and offset higher costs.                                                                       

In total, ATA expects about 23.2 million air travelers will fly on U.S. carriers’ domestic and international routes during a 12-day period surrounding the holiday – a 2 percent year-over-year drop – and down from the 23.6 million people who flew over the Thanksgiving period in 2010.

The 2011 forecast anticipates that total volumes for the period will be 12 percent less than the peak volumes reached in the same period in 2006.

“While demand is down from last year and remains well below the 2006 peak, passengers still should expect full flights during the Thanksgiving holiday travel season as  airlines have begun to reduce capacity and limit the number of seats available for sale due in part to rising cost pressures,” said ATA Vice President and Chief Economist John Heimlich. “Based on published airline schedules, these cuts are expected to continue through the winter.”

Daily passenger volumes during the holiday period will range from 1.3 million to 2.3 million. Based on sample data from 2009 and 2010, the busiest air-travel days for the period are expected to be Sunday, Nov. 27 and Monday, Nov. 28, followed by Friday, Nov. 18, with load factors exceeding 85 percent.

Stay alert

It's a good idea to check flight status at the air carrier’s website before leaving for the airport, and remember to arrive early to allow plenty of time for check-in and security screening.  You can check general delays at major airports in real time at http://www.fly.faa.gov/flyfaa/usmap.jsp

It's a good idea to review the Web site of the airline you'll be traveling to be sure you're up to date on the carrier's policies.  ATA also has a resource page with travel tips.

The wise traveler will travel light. Remember that you can take only two carry-on bags. The wheeled carts everyone now uses are fine but they take up a lot of space in overhead compartments.  Consider using a soft duffel bag if at all possible; it's easier to jam it into already stuffed bins.

Infrequent travelers sometimes expect too much.  Remember that bargain fares are usually not refundable, so if you try to change your plans at the last minute, it's going to be expensive.  If you value flexibility, be prepared to pay for it.

Remember too that airlines no longer routinely put passengers up in hotels if flights are canceled or delayed, except under certain very tightly defined conditions.  See the FAA site for complete information.  

Air travel can be frustrating but don't lose your cool.  It's OK to be politely assertive but yelling and becoming abusive will quickly get you arrested in most major airports.  Causing trouble in-flight is really a no-no these days. 

Airline finances

As usual, airlines are bemoaning their financial condition. ATA's tally shows a net income of $913 million for the first nine months of 2011. While operating revenues rose $11.7 billion (12.7 percent), operating expenses also rose $13.8 billion (16.1 percent), reducing net income 66 percent from the same period in 2010, and resulting in a narrow profit margin of 0.9 percent. Notably, fuel expenses rose 38.1 percent in the period.

“Higher costs have outpaced higher revenues thus far this year, and the industry’s razor-thin profit margin means that airlines are keeping less than one penny in profit for every $1 in revenue,” Heimlich said. “Aviation tax increases currently being proposed would exacerbate the problem, further jeopardizing air-service levels and the ability of the industry to invest in jobs, new routes and the overall economy.”

The White House has proposed, and the Congressional Super Committee tasked with debt reduction is considering, tripling the security taxes to $7.50 per departure, and adding a $100 departure tax to every passenger and cargo flight. These taxes combined would cost the airline industry and its customers $36 billion over the next 10 years, and as many as 181,000 U.S. jobs next year alone.