Study: Limits Of Wireless Capacity Fast Approaching

Over the last decade there has been an explosion in the use of wireless devices. Such a large surge that some researchers are wondering if we are fast approaching the limits of wireless capacity.

After all, it's not just voice communication any longer. The development of smartphones and tablets has led to a huge demand for wireless spectrum. University of California San Diego there there is a growing disconnect between what consumers want and expect and what the system can provide.

“We’re currently experiencing a mass migration from wired networks to wireless networks, which under the best of circumstances have far less capacity,” said Michael Kleeman, author of the report and senior fellow at UC San Diego.

Growing demand

But how likely is that to happen? Consumers eagerly purchase and find new uses for wireless gadgets each time a new product hits the market. Many consumers – especially the younger age demographics, don't even have a land line phone, using their mobile phone exclusively.

The researchers point out that wireless data capacity is inherently different than fiber optic cables, which affects its performance. Among other differences, wireless is allocated a small portion of the available spectrum, and its signals are susceptible to interference from numerous sources, including weather and buildings.

According to the report, even with advanced wireless technology, the capacity available to all network users in a given cell can be less than 1/000th the capacity of a fiber optic thread. Wireless demand is also mobile and hard to predict, and when it exceeds capacity the result is dropped connections and slow downloads.

How much information?

The 2009 American Consumer Report found that in 2008, Americans consumed 3.6 zettabytes of data including nearly five hours of TV viewing per average day. This is more than 3.5 pettabytes per day, which exceeds the wireless data network’s entire 2010 throughput. Increasing use of mobile video will be a major source of growing demand for wireless capacity, the researchers say.

The 2011 “Wireless Point of Disconnect” report highlights three strategies for addressing this disconnect, all of which have drawbacks and tradeoffs.

First, a key limiting factor is spectrum, and increasing and optimizing available spectrum are effective ways to increase network capacity. A combination of public and private strategies to optimize spectrum use should be employed and encouraged. However, many of the public solutions will take as much as a decade to implement.

Second, carriers will increasingly need to manage traffic and develop triage and prioritization protocols, potentially including pricing-based mechanisms with real-time customer feedback to help manage network load.

Third, the industry can invest in more infrastructure, including cell towers and “backhaul” cables. This will require community support, the researchers conclude.

“There is a lot of discussion about supply-demand issues for broadband Internet, but soon the same questions will be considerably more acute for wireless,” said Roger Bohn, director of the Global Information Industry Center at UC San Diego. “This report shows why future wireless systems will require adjustments, of one kind or another.”