Gas Prices Edge Up Again

At the midway point of a pivotal week for gasoline, the price of the fuel has edged up again. That ends a string of five days in which the price declined.

The national average price of self-serve regular today is $3.962 a gallon, according to AAA's Fuel Gauge Survey. That's up from $3.951 per gallon Tuesday but is two cents lower than the price seven days ago.

The national average gas price peaked last Thursday at $3.985 before beginning small incremental declines through Tuesday. Prices reversed direction after the crude of crude oil tumbled last week, with the price on the New York Mercantile Exchange falling below $100 a barrel.

However, crude oil prices have recovered this week to around $102 a barrel. How prices behave for the rest of the week could provide a strong indicator for the future of gasoline prices. Will prices at the pump head down from here, or will they surge past $4 a gallon?

Many analysts have said market fundamentals do not support oil prices above $100 a barrel – that traders have bid up the price, speculating that a worsening political situation in the Middle East and a recovering economy that needs more oil will lead to supply shortages.

Gasoline prices, they say, may have already peaked. Normally, gas prices peak around Memorial Day but level off over the summer, then begin to go down in the fall and winter.

The fact is, there really is no shortage of oil. The American Petroleum Institute reports that U.S. stockpiles of crude oil rose last week by nearly three million barrels. That's a lot more than analysts expected. Stockpiles of gasoline went down again last week, but that's not necessarily a function of increased demand. Refineries may have just produced less.

For motorists, it's a waiting game. Prices may go higher, or they could start coming down in the coming weeks. The only near certainty is, if prices do start falling, it won't be by a lot.