The Democrats just can't catch a break. The Obama administration cut taxes for middle-class Americans but then either forgot tell them about it or decided it just wasn't that big of a deal.
It also expects to make a profit on the hundreds of billions of dollars spent to rescue Wall Street banks, but the perception in this country is that it will never recoup the money it gave to the people who ruined it for the rest of us.
And then there's the economy. Would you believe it has actually grown for the past four quarters?
You don't? Well, it appears most voters don't believe it either and it is this view, which is at odds with the facts, that will hurt the Democrats up for election this coming Tuesday. The Democrats are being blamed for this mess even though in reality they done a few things they're not getting credit for.
A Bloomberg National Poll conducted this week found, that by a two-to-one margin, likely voters actually think taxes have gone up. They also believe the economy has grown smaller and that we're still in a recession and that the billions lent to banks as part of the Troubled Asset Relief Program will never be recovered.
J. Ann Selzer is president of Selzer & Co., a Des Moines, Iowa-based firm that conducted the survey. She says it "does not matter much if you make change, if you do not communicate change."
That fact that the Obama administration has cut taxes, largely for the middle class, by $240 billion since taking office January 20, 2009, has gone unnoticed. People didn't feel they had any more money to spend and the administration didn't communicate it. Why the secrecy?
Dollar a day
Here was a program aimed at families earning less than $150,000 that was contained in the stimulus package and lowered the burden for 95% of working Americans by $116 billion, or about $400 per year for individuals and $800 for married couples. Ah, there's the problem. $400 bucks spread out over two years comes out to less than a dollar a day. Can you see why most people didn't really feel it?
Other measures include breaks for college education, moderate-income families and the unemployed and incentives to promote renewable energy. Those actually were reported more than the tax break.
Still, the poll shows the message hasn't gotten through to Americans, especially middle-income voters. By 52% to 19%, likely voters say federal income taxes have gone up for the middle class in the past two years.
The view that taxes have gone up is shared by a majority of almost all demographic groups, including 50% of independent voters. Even a plurality of Democrats, 43%, hold this misperception. Overall, 63% of those who earn $25,000 to $49,999 say taxes have gone up, compared with 45% of those who earn $100,000 or more.
The poll demonstrates the tough odds for Democrats heading into the midterms. Republicans are poised to retake the U.S. House next week with a 47% to 44% edge among likely voters. Independents are driving the Republican advantage as 47% favor Republican candidates compared to 34% who favor Democratic candidates.
The heart of Obama's voting base and the group he's tailored most of his policies to, middle-income earners feel more pinched by taxes (63% say taxes have gone up for the middle class). They are also gloomier about economic growth (65% say the economy is shrinking) and more pessimistic the tax dollars lent to Wall Street banks will ever be repaid (67% say most of this money will be lost) than their higher-income earning counterparts.
Slow growth?
The perceptions of voters about the performance of the economy are also at odds with official data. The recession that began in December 2007 officially ended in June 2009, making the 18-month stretch the longest since the Great Depression. In the past year, the economy has grown 3% and is expected to show improvement in the second quarter of this year.
The only problem is that voters aren't seeing the better economic climate. More than 60% of poll respondents say the economy is shrinking this year, compared with 33 percent who say it is growing. And older voters are more likely to view the economy negatively, with 69% of those age 55 and older saying it is shrinking, compared with 48% of voters under 35 who say so. For those 65 and older, it's 71%.
The poll reveals the failure of the Democrats to communicate their achievements even within their own party.
Business fears
In a separate survey, senior executives are worried about a prolonged recession. The Oliver-Wyman / Financial Times Research Study says that in the days before the election most executives still fear a prolonged recession and many have serious concerns about potential regulatory change.
The global study reveals that 71% of executives consider global recession to be one of the five biggest risks to their businesses over the next 18 to 36 months. Nearly one-quarter of respondents selected recession as the number one risk to their company.
