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Consumer Prices Edge Up In October

Cars, and the fuel to drive them, cost more last month

By Mark Huffman
ConsumerAffairs.com

November 18, 2009

Consumers paid more for gasoline, in particular, last month as fuel prices shot up an average of about 20 cents a gallon with new strength in the oil market. Those increases have dissipated a bit this month as oil prices have pulled back.

In addition to energy, consumers paid more for cars last month. New vehicle prices rose 1.6 percent as dealers, their inventories depleted by the successful Cash for Clunkers program, were more likely to hold to the sticker price. The increase in auto prices was the largest in 28 years.

There were some things that didn't cost as much last month, most notably rent. A weaker rental market seems odd in the face of a sagging housing market, but some economist said its just one more sign of weakness in the overall economy. Consumers are just unable to pay as much as they once could.

The "core" inflation rate -- with food and energy removed from the equation -- rose at a slower pace, 0.2 percent. For the year, the core CPI is up 1.7 percent, not nearly enough to set off inflation alarm bells.

Even so, some economists are worried about rising prices in the not too distant future. They point to a dollar that continues to lose value and commodities that continue to soar in price. At some point, they say, it's got to lead to higher prices.

However, New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, who correctly predicted last year's credit meltdown, is more concerned about a deepening recession than inflation. Writing in the New York Daily News this week, Roubini predicted job losses would continue to mount until at least the end of next year. He said the government should spend more to stimulate the economy -- a prescription others see as piling on inflationary debt.

"The weakness in labor markets and the sharp fall in labor income ensure a weak recovery of private consumption and an anemic recovery of the economy, and increases the risk of a double dip recession," Roubini wrote.

Federal Reserve officials have said they aren't as concerned about deflation as they once were, but at their most recent meeting, signaled plans to keep interest rates low, even at the risk of inflation.

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