Christmas Sales Forecast Gets More Grim

Buyers expected to stay frugal through holiday season

December 5, 2008

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If you passed up the Black Friday bargains, you may well get another chance. America's Research Group has lowered its annual Christmas retail forecast to minus 3.5 perccent from minus one percent that it predicted in mid-November, meaning there may be more discounts ahead.

The revision was based on disappointing data from the third America's Research Group/UBS Christmas 2008 Survey conducted over the weekend and the fact that fewer consumers will give gift cards this year, a finding from survey number two.

"When you look at the numbers, you see that over the weekend consumers were frugal and focused, staying within their budgets and concentrating on the deals and advertised specials," said C. Britt Beemer, CEO and Founder of ARG. "Add to that the finding that some consumers will give cash or nothing at all instead of gift cards this year makes me very pessimistic," he added.

Beemer has correctly predicted Christmas retail sales in 16 of the last 17 years.

Of those consumers who planned to shop over the weekend, 37.0 percent shopped on Friday and another 37.0 percent did not shop at all, the highest numbers in over 10 years. Almost one fifth shopped at only one store this year, the highest number since 2001 when 23.5 percent shopped at only one store.

Seventy percent of consumers said that they stayed within their budgets, an indicator of this year's disciplined shopper. In addition, 88.1 percent bought items they had seen advertised. Both figures are a nine-year high.

Eighty-eight percent of consumers shopped at one of the "early bird" specials on Black Friday, a number surpassed only in 2005, when 91.3 percent hit the specials.

Of those consumers who normally give gift cards but won't this year, 64.4 percent will give money instead. Only 35.6 percent said they would give gifts instead, dashing retailers' expectations that fewer gift cards could boost gift sales. Of those consumers who will give fewer gift cards, over a third say that there is a chance they could give nothing at all.

When asked if the sales were as good this year as compared to four to five years ago, however, 38.4 percent said "no," the highest figure in the five years the question has been asked in ARG surveys.

Another ominous sign for retail traffic during December is that almost twenty percent of shoppers say they have finished 90 percent or more of their shopping this year, compared to 13.6 percent last year. Over 63 percent said they would finish their shopping in three days or less.

Consumers seem to be shopping less on-line if they can't find an item in the store. When asked if they went on line because they could not find an item in the store, only 12.3 percent said "yes," a nine-year low.

The one winner this Christmas appears to be Wal-Mart. An amazing 61.3 percent of consumers shopped at Wal-Mart this year for gifts vs. 59.3 percent last year. In addition, 78.3 percent of those shoppers who did not go to Wal-Mart this weekend said they expected to shop there this Christmas season.

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