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Warm Weather Could Benefit Consumers At The Pump

January 5, 2007

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Gasoline prices, which steadily rose throughout the last few weeks of 2006, should start heading down again, if recent history is any guide. Oil prices have tumbled in the new year, in part because of unseasonably warm weather and rising U.S. fuel supplies.

Oil prices fell to around $55 a barrel on Friday, down nearly ten percent for the week. In the past, when oil prices moved sharply, fuel prices at the pump have been close behind.

Twelve months ago, in January 2006, oil prices were around $66 a barrel and the average price of unleaded regular was $2.32 a gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. The average price of a gallon of unleaded was $2.33, a penny higher, at the end of 2006.

Analysts point to December's warm weather as the main factor in oil's tumble this week, and say the outlook is for more warm weather -- and a continued softness in oil prices.

In fact, December 2006 was the warmest December on record in Concord, N.H., and concludes a year that was one of the warmest ever in the state known for its harsh winters, according David Brown, New Hampshire State Climatologist and assistant professor of geography at the University of Hampshire.

"In the last three decades, we've seen a steady upward trend in temperature, particularly in the winter season," Brown said. "Globally, we've seen an upward temperature trend during the same period. It's likely that what we're seeing in New England is, at least in part, the regional signature of global climate change."

The average December temperature of 33.9º F was the warmest ever recorded in Concord by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, which has been keeping official records since 1921.

Brown, recognized as the New Hampshire State Climatologist by the American Association of State Climatologists and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, said he expects the milder temperatures to prevail throughout the season.

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