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Bird Flu Pandemic Fears May Be Exaggerated





By Mark Huffman
ConsumerAffairs.com

March 23, 2006

Bird Flu

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Scientists say the bird flu virus could still mutate so that it spreads from human to human, but two new studies indicate that process may be more difficult, and perhaps less likely, than previously believed.

As the lethal virus has spread among wild and domestic birds around the world, medical experts have warned that the virus, known as H5N1, could mutate into a form that could easily be spread among humans. So far, the virus has proved deadly to the few humans who have contracted it, all of whom had direct contact with sick birds.

The new studies may explain why the virus hasn't mutated so that it can be spread from one human to another.

The disease appears to lodge in an unusual part of the human respiratory tract, far deeper in the lungs than most viruses settle. Using human tissue samples, the researchers have found that H5N1 in this part of the body can't be spread by sneezing and coughing, the way regular, seasonal cold and flu germs are.

Researchers familiar with the study are taking comfort from the findings, because they say it could make it more difficult for H5N1 to mutate into the deadly human pandemic many have feared.

Since 2003, only 183 people worldwide have contracted the H5N1 virus, almost all from contact with infected birds. But of the 183 infected, 103 have died, alarming public health experts who are concerned a human pandemic stemming from this virus could be particularly catastrophic.

"Our findings provide a rational explanation for why H5N1 viruses rarely infect and spread from human to human although they can replicate efficiently in the lungs," University of Wisconsin-Madison researchers said in their study, reported in the journal Nature.

"No one knows whether the virus will evolve into a pandemic strain, but flu viruses constantly change," Yoshihiro Kawaoka, the group's leader, said.

"Certainly multiple mutations need to be accumulated for the H5N1 virus to become a pandemic strain."

A group of Dutch researchers reported similar findings, published this week in the online journal Science.



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